What does “Superman” switch portend?

My read on Warner Bros.’s decision to release Superman Returns two days earlier — on Wednesday, 6.28 instead of Friday, 6.30 — is that the marketing cats are figuring Bryan Singer’s humungously costly film will be pretty much over and done by the time Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest comes along on July 7th, so why not go for the moolah by stretching out the 4th of July weekend as much as possible? I haven’t called my pallies with the tracking reports, but the general expectation is that Superman Returns will pull in…I don’t know what to write here. Those angry Ain’t It Cool guys have been gunning for this film for months now. Will geek sentiments matter? Do geeks ever matter when it comes to huge tenpolers? Is a figure of $140 to $145 million over the six-day weekend on-the-money, optimistic, a bit short…what? What are HE readers expecting? How interested?

55 thoughts on “What does “Superman” switch portend?

  1. Paul H. on said:

    My prediction: 70 million for the Fri-Sun, 135 for the long weekend and a total domestic of 2225 million. Probably would be higher but Pirates is gonna eat all the cake for at least three consecutive weeks.

  2. My prediction: 70 million for the Fri-Sun, 135 for the long weekend and a total domestic of 225 million. Probably would be higher but Pirates is gonna eat all the cake for at least three consecutive weeks.

  3. I’m thinking they’ve greatly overestimated the nostalgia for the Richard Donner/Richard Lester films; that the teenage audience WB is coveting want what they think are darker, edgier, “bad-ass” comic book movies. Or, I could be completey wrong and the movie will become the new TITANIC. Who knows. All I know is the trailer attached to X-Men is fantastic . . .

  4. Here’s a bold prediction: if it’s pretty good it will continue doing well for some weeks after Pirates of the Caribbean: Wet and Wild opens. If it’s not, it won’t.
    This tracking shit is annoying me. X-Men is a perfect example of a movie that no one particularly wanted to see until it turned out that, in a summer of mostly cruddy, galumphing movies, here was one with at least decent characters and a fairly short and sweet running time. I had no great need to see another Superman movie and yet Roush’s Reeve impersonation, Spacey’s genuinely menacing Luthor and some pretty fast and furious action suddenly make it look like the only summer movie that won’t make me feel dirty for having seen it. But maybe the trailer’s fooling me, who knows? In any case, my opinion is very much pending hearing what people actually think of it, tracking or not.
    On the other hand, I need another Pirates of the Caribbean like I need another The Haunted Mansion.

  5. I’m very interested. Saw the Supes movies as a kid — yeah all of them. Haven’t revisited Superman II sense then but will before I go into the new one.
    I won’t see it opening weekend though. I’ll be there when everyone is packing in Pirates.
    I’ve been waiting for Singer to disappoint me since Usual Suspects … and he hasn’t.
    Although I didn’t see either X pics at the theater.

  6. There’s one thing keeping me from seeing the film and her name is Kate Bosworth, the most boring young actress ever. I’m sorry, were there no BRUNETTES available for the role? Her hair looks worse than K. Dunst in Spiderman. Margot Kidder had charisma. This girl has a good agent.

  7. Considering that a lot of people (including myself) consider Superman Returns really the only worthwhile film this summer, I have a hard time with your assessment.
    I have a different take on the move, that they think the film is going to be huge when it opens, and WB wants to take as much advantage in that as possible, probably to keep momentum when PotC2 opens.
    As for the Pirates sequel, I have a feeling it is going to have a hard time following up the first film. It is hard for lightening to strike twice.

  8. Hey, one thing I want to clarify is, I didn’t mean “this tracking shit is annoying me, Jeff should stop talking about it.” I just meant “this tracking shit is emblematic of everything that’s wrong with Hollywood today.” The value of Jeff’s site is that somebody’s plugged into Hollywood, and occasionally takes the corporate groupthink too seriously, yet has an outsider perspective and an appreciation of film art that makes this so much more than a box office-driven site. So it’s interesting to hear this buzz, don’t get me wrong, but I think it’s a sign of how screwed up Hollywood is that they’re deciding the fates of movies based not just on opening weekends but on predictions of what the opening weekends will be like made three weeks ahead of them. The movie itself has become so irrelevant to the process– except that, see the item about RV, once in a while the audience surprises you and makes a hit out of something because they actually liked it, and not just because it was a presold property with 82% name recognition, 44% first-choice desire-to-see and 12% would-eat-the-Happy-Meal-toy-included.

  9. As long as Bryan Singer sticks to the knitting (you know – making really, really good movies), then “Superman Returns” will rule. Overall, I’d say that “Pirates” has the greater hurdle: overcoming the sequel slump (SR is not a sequel in the usual sense to me).
    The trick with SR will be to take us places emotionally that the Reeves flicks never really tapped. Let’s not forget the effects: if the FX throughout are what we’ve seen in the trailer, then everything will be all right.

  10. What are you talking about, Jeff? Aint it Cool News is not against this film. The best way to gauge geek sentiment is to take a look at what Harry Knowles has to say and he’s 100% super-psyched and pro-Superman. The simple X-Men vs. Superman debate among geeks comes down to a simple truth. Singer = good, Ratner = bad. Of course, as the grosses for X-Men 3 indicate, it doesn’t really matter what the geeks think. They’ll go to see a tentpole, whether it’s good or not. The real question is, will the square, half-assed, non-geeks go to see it? Personally, I think they’ll eat this up. It has bring-the-whole-family, patriotic-good-time written all over it.

  11. Good luck getting females interested in this film– when the trailer was shown in front of X3 last Saturday, the guy sitting behind me said to his date, “Looks pretty good.”
    Her reply: “Ehhhh.”

  12. Superman will be hugely entertaining and should exceed $250 million dollars in domestic box office. With merchandising and extended syndication, the film is going to earn money hand over fist.

  13. Warners moved the release of Batman Begins up last year by two days, about four weeks before its release. Thus, one could estimate Warners is just following its own gameplan from a recently released and very successful superhero film.

  14. – Good luck getting females interested in this film– when the trailer was shown in front of X3 last Saturday, the guy sitting behind me said to his date, “Looks pretty good.”
    Her reply: “Ehhhh.” –
    So I guess Warner Bros shoot just accept this will a flop with females now. After all, one broad before x3 went “Ehhh.”

  15. I think that X3′s opening week proves that films fail or succeed regardless of what the Ain’t it Cool talkbackers think. And I would wager that there’s more interest in Superman than X3.
    Are people that worried about Pirates 2? I mean, the first one was good, but does it have this huge fan base that I don’t know about? Because I can’t see anybody getting too excited about this movie.
    My personal theory is this: people are travelling less and less (due to gas prices, among other things), and the result was X3′s Memorial Day bonanza. So Warner Brothers realized that if they had a film on their hands that was mostly in focus and nothing else, they’re guaranteed a gigantic opening weekend. And if the film is any good, there’ll be some good worth-of-mouth, maybe even repeat business. So why not stretch THAT payday out two more days?

  16. I wasn’t interested in seeing this AT ALL…until I saw the trailer. That piqued my interest. And it might do that for lots of other movie goers. The thing is, I saw the trailer when I went to see Mi3, and we know how well that did.
    I don’t think people are excited about this movie. On the other hand, my 10 year old son AND my 16 year old niece are already bugging me to take them to see the Pirates sequel when it comes out.

  17. Beware of Pirates. It’s going to be huge. Notice that they haven’t put a whole lot of Depp in the trailers. Even though it’s a sequel, I doubt Depp will go to exactly the same well twice (or, in this case, thrice) with the character. Remember, most of his character’s foibles in the first film were because he had lost his ship. Now, he has it back (at least until the Kraken is released). So I expect we’re going to see something unexpected. And Bill Nighy (like Geoffrey Rush before him) always brings something to the table.
    Also remember that a lot of critics laughed before the first one came out. A box-office poison concept (pirates) with a box-office poison star (Depp) based on a theme park ride (see: Haunted Mansion, Country Bears). It did over $300 mil. I expect this one will do the same.
    Superman all comes down to Routh and I sense some concern by the suits there. If he can’t sell the character, the movie will die on the vine. Christopher Reeve may have been a once-in-a-lifetime find.

  18. This film seems to have been one massive mistake after another.
    With the kid: WTF were they thinking! Blues Brothers 2000 anyone. Had Singer proposed that to me I would have kicked him out of the office at once.
    Routh and Bosworth look like kids playing dress up. SuperMAN please. Not SuperBOY.
    I think those last two trailers were great but look like a hail Mary pass late in the fourth quarter.
    I also do not know what market they are going for. Superman is not edgy enough for modern types, has little female appeal and would seem to appeal to more traditional ‘right and wrong’ types.
    But they make him an effeminate looking Supes with a Lois Lane who must have been a single mom when she was 17. They also take out the line “Truth, Justice and the American Way”.
    This seems like as big a misfire as Batman Begins was a Bullzeye.
    It will do 200+ to be sure, but I know of no one that is excited about it.

  19. I think there’s room for both Pirates and Superman, with the mild edge going to Pirates (women like Depp much more than Routh), but I agree with the people above who say it depends, in the long run, on quality of the films. Both Singer and Verbinski have proven themselves able craftters of popcorn, especially by the standards of what passes for popcorn nowadays.

  20. “But they make him an effeminate looking Supes with a Lois Lane who must have been a single mom when she was 17″
    Well, that’s why they moved it up — to snag all those gay guys, before “Devil Wears Prada” opens that Friday.
    At a crowded showing of “X-Men” this weekend I saw trailers for Superman, Pirates, and GhostRider and Snakes on a Plane — only Pirates and Snakes got applause.

  21. Regarding the post by Nicol D above. Could’nt agree more about the superBOY comment. To me, it is categorically impossible to ever see Superman the same again once you view the versh of Superman illustrated by Alex Ross. Ross’ Supes is a MAN. Solid and stable, with piercing eyes and a structured, masculine physique. I have a hard time swallowing the metrosexualized, nearly effeminate incarnations of latter day Superman ( a la Smallville and Routh)…Kate Bosworth doesnt register for me either. She was the only brightspot in Beyond the Sea, however, so I could be proven wrong here. Spacey…eh….I wouldve shot for Hackman and de-aged him a bit as they did for McKellan and Stewart so amazingly in X3….I dunno tho. Spacey looks kinda hammy here and not in the best way. Also, historically, I just dont feel that his performances hold up over time. Even Usual Suspects. And, frankly, on a superficial level, I think he looks plain weird bald. He has an odd shaped head that distracts me…hm….

  22. X-3 and SUPERMAN RETURNS are like flip sides to a coin it seems when it comes to behind the camera stuff. In this thread’s case, it is the release date/audience competition. Whereas X-3 will probably pick up a good $50M simply because it has no real competition for its wide audience for a month, SUPERMAN gets them for a grand total of 10 days before Depp sails in on the Black Pearl.
    Then, they are basically going to chew through the same audience. The new trailer seems to be finally igniting some excitment, myself included (when I stopped by yesterday, all of MY homies at Laser Blazer DVD store were talking it up). Yet this only means now RETURNS won’t get steamrollered by PIRATES.
    If WB had real balls and brains, they should have announced they were moving it up by 2 WEEKS instead of two days and thrown in some sneaks before that if they have any real faith in the film. They need to dispel this feeling everyone has that this film isn’t worth watching. Instead, we’re going to watch TFTF-TOYKO DRIFT make way more dinero than it should have.

  23. I would imagine warners know they’ve got a great movie on their hands and want good word of mouth flying its way round America going into the weekend. Especially with Pirates coming the weekend after.
    Pirates is going to clean up, no doubt. Warners need people to see Superman opening weekend before they get swamped, simple as.
    They did this with Batman Begins I recall and that movie ended up making over $200 million.
    Sometime quality talks. But I’d imagine they’re not convinced its going to open to X3 numbers, as much as we’re not sure.
    Looks great though, fingers crossed

  24. I want to see how much of Marlon Brando’s deleted from Superman 2 performance shows up in the new film…and how Singer and company have handled it.Though Richard Lester is the credited director of the second film, I understand Richard Donner directed all of Brando’s scenes and Singer and Donner are friends.

  25. Calm down everyone. Superman Returns will be huge. People in the States need something to feel good about at the moment and the blue boy scout is the perfect tonic.
    Judging by the latest trailers, Warners are smartly showing us, little by little, glimpses of a film that looks breathtaking. Everyone I’ve talked to said that the trailer was the best thing about X-Men3.
    Yes, a lot will hang on Routh, but I don’t see any cause for concern as yet. Look for a 7 day take of $180m, and $400m + total domestic, close to $1bn world-wide.

  26. “They did this with Batman Begins I recall and that movie ended up making over $200 million.”
    Exactly – BATMAN BEGINS opened June 17th and didn’t have direct competition for 2 weeks until WAR OF THE WORLDS opened July 1st. But I guess Warners really wants to make this a pissing contest just so they can have the July 4th bragging rights.
    Ironically, this year is going to be a complete repeat of last: FANTASTIC FOUR opened shockingly well only to be buried one week later by a Johnny Depp movie with family appeal. Those who don’t learn from history…

  27. $180M for the first week seems very iffy and $400M+ downright impossible and $1B a pipe dream.
    The only two films that have done better than $180M were SPIDERMAN 2 ($192M) and REVENGE OF THE SITH($191M) – two movies with giant must-see zeitgiest-pushes and opening dates at the start of the summer, making then THE movie to see for 2004 & 2005.
    The top 5 opening weeks are:
    1. SPIDERMAN 2 $192M
    2. REVENGE OF THE SITH $191M
    3. MATRIX RELOADED $153M
    4. SPIDERMAN $151M
    5. RETURN OF THE KING $150M
    At the moment, WB will be lucky to see $110M that first week and a final US/Canadian haul of $200-220M (X-MEN: TLS will not make $180M it’s first week, not even $150M). Superman is such a blatantly American icon that the current pitch of anti-American sentiment around the world could have some serious impact on the film’s overseas gross. Getting to just $400M worldwide might be iffy.
    PIRATES benefits from not only being a sequel to a film that surprised everyone, but stars the actor who everybody credits with making it a hit in first place. As an added bonus, Depp is following up being in a hugely successful family film last year with another one this year.

  28. If ‘Superman Returns’ is nothing more than a de-camped ‘Superman’ (1978) it will be a genre masterpiece and a blockbuster.

  29. Wait, no. I just watched the trailer. Superman is going to take Pirates of the Caribbean out back and beat it like a crippled beagle.

  30. “They did this with Batman Begins I recall and that movie ended up making over $200 million.”

    Exactly – BATMAN BEGINS opened June 17th and didn’t have direct competition for 2 weeks until WAR OF THE WORLDS opened July 1st. But I guess Warners really wants to make this a pissing contest just so they can have the July 4th bragging rights.

    Ironically, this year is going to be a complete repeat of last: FANTASTIC FOUR opened shockingly well only to be buried one week later by a Johnny Depp movie with family appeal. Those who don’t learn from history…

  31. $180M for the first week seems very iffy and $400M+ downright impossible and $1B a pipe dream.

    The only two films that have done better than $180M were SPIDERMAN 2 ($192M) and REVENGE OF THE SITH($191M) – two movies with giant must-see zeitgiest-pushes and opening dates at the start of the summer, making then THE movie to see for 2004 & 2005.

    The top 5 opening weeks are:
    1. SPIDERMAN 2 $192M
    2. REVENGE OF THE SITH $191M
    3. MATRIX RELOADED $153M
    4. SPIDERMAN $151M
    5. RETURN OF THE KING $150M

    At the moment, WB will be lucky to see $110M that first week and a final US/Canadian haul of $200-220M (X-MEN: TLS will not make $180M it’s first week, not even $150M). Superman is such a blatantly American icon that the current pitch of anti-American sentiment around the world could have some serious impact on the film’s overseas gross. Getting to just $400M worldwide might be iffy.

    PIRATES benefits from not only being a sequel to a film that surprised everyone, but stars the actor who everybody credits with making it a hit in first place. As an added bonus, Depp is following up being in a hugely successful family film last year with another one this year.

  32. I’m pretty jazzed to see ‘Superman.’ Singer is good and the early teaser trailer with the Brando voiceover was outstanding. Gave me chills. This film is probably #3 on my list of anticipated summer films after Mssrs. Shymalan and Mann. Having said all that, the most recent trailers don’t have the “Holy Shit!” factor that the trailers for, say ‘Matrix Reloaded’ or ‘King Kong’ did, considering the budget. I think the ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ trailer is arguably better than the ‘Superman’ trailer.

  33. Wait, no. I just watched the trailer. Superman is going to take Pirates of the Caribbean out back and beat it like a crippled beagle.

  34. The thing about Superman is that it’s, well… SUPERMAN. It’s a universal thing, everyone has heard of it, etc. Pirates will hit #1 the second weekend, but Superman is still going to be a huge deal even in 2nd or 3rd place weeks down the line.
    It’s an action franchise, it’s more or less family friendly, and even people who’ve never read or even glanced at a comic book in their life knows and probably has at least a mostly-favorable feeling about these characters. It’s been more of an institution than “just” a comic hero since before WWII, so the real comparison to be made here isn’t so much to Spidey or X-Men but to LOTR or Narnia.
    The only place where the “geek factor” comes in is in terms of the repeat business: If there are any kind of “flaming-bird-under-the-water-at-the-end-of-X2″ geek-out moments in here (say, if Krypto the Superdog or Mxyzptlk or Bizzaro show up or are intimated) or major didn’t-see-that-coming twists to it, they’ll be going back to it for weeks just to have fresh ammo to hash over.

  35. The thing about Superman is that it’s, well… SUPERMAN. It’s a universal thing, everyone has heard of it, etc. Pirates will hit #1 the second weekend, but Superman is still going to be a huge deal even in 2nd or 3rd place weeks down the line.
    It’s an action franchise, it’s more or less family friendly, and even people who’ve never read or even glanced at a comic book in their life knows and probably has at least a mostly-favorable feeling about these characters. It’s been more of an institution than “just” a comic hero since before WWII, so the real comparison to be made here isn’t so much to Spidey or X-Men but to LOTR or Narnia.
    The only place where the “geek factor” comes in is in terms of the repeat business: If there are any kind of “flaming-bird-under-the-water-at-the-end-of-X2″ geek-out moments in here (say, if Krypto the Superdog or Mxyzptlk or Bizzaro show up or are intimated) or major didn’t-see-that-coming twists to it, they’ll be going back to it for weeks just to have fresh ammo to hash over.

  36. But was the Chris Reeve Superman even the top grossing film the year it came out?
    And everyone should be careful about the mythic tones of this film. Word ’round the campfire (and in some spoiler-filled AICN reviews) is that they do monkey quite a bit with the Superman myth. For the reasons Bob named, the Superman story transcends geek familiarity. If they try too hard to do a Batman Begins on this franchise, they risk alienating a lot of people. The changes infuriated Moriarty so much that Singer suckup Knowles actually pulled his #2 man’s script review.
    But what do I know? I went into Batman Begins expecting to hate it, and I thought it was one of the best movies to come out last year, let alone last summer.

  37. Grease slightly outdid Superman in the US (Variety’s domestic rentals figures are $83 million to $81 million) but I’d bet with overseas Superman outpaced Grease handily. Anyway, Superman II did better than Grease II!
    I just watched Batman Begins again and it really struck me how it caught an angry post-911 mood– lots of lines of dialogue refer to how trying to understand the root causes of the bad guys just makes you a sucker, and Ras al-Ghul is an obvious Bin Laden figure, a charismatic ascetic who justifies mass slaughter in the name of purification. I wonder, even a year later the political mood has changed so much, will Superman Returns try to exploit the same vibe (Luthor’s messianic dialogue and the scenes of Supe rescuing an airplane in the new trailer suggest so) and if so will audiences react to it or are they sick of trying to save the world? Maybe the numbers to look at aren’t the tracking numbers but the approval ratings….

  38. It’s hard to imagine in a post 911 world that there wouldn’t be big interest in a new superman movie but there are no sure things anymore when trying to pin point audience taste.
    Im 41 and was excited about WB Poseidon Adventure remake and it will be lucky if it grosses 55 million domestically. In 72 people lined up around the block waitng to see the original as it pulled in 90 million on a 5 million dollar budget almost 20 times it’s production cost.
    The fact is audience taste can change on a dime even studios aren’t sure anymore on what will hit big. Computer generated films are almost a sure thing although Disneys The Wild never found much of a audience so even in the same genre things can go wrong.
    Word of mouth hits? Is there such a thing any more!
    There so much over hyped product being dumped into the marketplace audiences go from one film to the next with no time for any one movie to become legend. Question ? Would even Jaws have legs in this crazy enviroment!
    I for one am excited about Superman returns And can’t wait to see it but then again Im the guy who saw Poseidon twice in the theater. No it’s not the original which is a masterpiece in it’s genre but I must admit I still think a cruise ship getting capsized on New years eve is a pretty cool concept but that’s me a 41 yr old movie buff from a different generation that many of todays movie goers. The studio even stripped it of character development to pacify todays slim attention span mindset.
    Bottom line if this new Superman dosen’t open big all bets are off for what tommorows taste will be!

  39. Not an easy task coming up with a good scipt for a reincarnation of Superman, and based by the trailers, it seems like they are doing the story and the memory of the donner film justice. Not only that, but what a wonderful rush of special effects and concept for story. As far as POTC, it is a bummer that two huge films will be released so close together, I wish they would spread these things out a little bit. The first POTC was very good, good for kids too, but the new film seems darker and I wonder if it will have an impact on parents taking their young kids this time.
    Opening so close to Superman Returns will definatly have a negative impact on both films, Superman Returns more likely. But I know if I had my choice between the two standing at the theatre, and I had my eight yr old son at my side, Superman would win the call. Superman has passed the test of time, before the new POTC trailer, I had already forgotten about that Johnny Depp movie.

  40. I remember the audience yawning through the Speed 2 trailer without the slighest bit of interest, other than a few muttered “Where’s Keanu?” and one great “Fuck Sandra Bullock! Keanu was the meat in Speed” from a RAAF guy in front of us.
    Same thing with this trailer. Could hear no buzz at the end. People seemed psyched for Pirates though. I’m sure it will make money – People have nothing better to do.

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  43. tworzenie stron internetowych tworzenie stron internetowych ; soczewki kontaktowe soczewki kontaktowe ; zdrowa żywność zdrowa żywność ; reklama w internecie reklama w internecie ; sm ; ma ; mpa ; apteki warszawa apteki warszawa ; agroturystyka agroturystyka mazury ; jiddu krishnamurti jiddu krishnamurti ; nauka angielskiego nauka angielskiego angielski ; stomatologia warszawa stomatolog warszawa ; opony opony ; klimatyzacja klimatyzacja ; domy opieki warszawa domy opieki warszawa ; apteka apteka ; projektowanie stron internetowych projektowanie stron internetowych ; ogłoszenia nieruchomości ogłoszenia nieruchomości ; nieruchomości warszawa, wynajmę kawalerkę warszawa nieruchomości warszawa ; nieruchomości, wynajmę mieszkanie warszawa nieruchomości ; korepetycje angielski angielski korepetycje ; sigmund freud ; jk

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