“Superman” numbers
I’ve been told that MCN’s estimate on Superman Returns numbers — between $3 million and $4 million late Tuesday night and just under $10 million on Wednesday — is wrong. I’m told SR took in a bit more on Tuesday (between $4 and $5 million), and that yesterday’s take was around $14.7 million for a so-far total of just under $20 million.
Warner Bros. will probably report a figure of just over $20 million, which obviously sounds flusher. (Since I wrote this earlier today, Variety‘s Ben Fritz went with a WB-supplied figure of $21 million.) The 7-day total (Tuesday, 6.7 through Tuesday, 7.4) is, I’m guessing, probably going to be around $100 to $110 million. Not drop-dead stratospheric but pretty good.
Yeah, MCN is saying about on par with King Kong, but from what I’ve seen and heard, Superman Returns did a lot more business.
So Poland is so anti-Superman that he’s lying about the money its making? Unbelievable.
20 million is a very solid start for this film.
Poland knows no shame.
Poland can go straight to hell.
Yes, where a loop of “The Phantom of the Opera” will be playing over and over. It’s his favorite, you know?
I think that’s really what most people were expecting: solid/respectable but not blockbuster. Even with significant erosion next weekend, they’re pretty much a lock for 200M+.
$20 million (SBD is saying $21 million) is a decent, solid start but really nothing spectacular… especially when you consider how high-profile and high-budget SR is. I think its box-office run is going to be similar to KING KONG… which would be reasonably good except for SR’s gargantuan budget. If it doesn’t pull in close to that, I don’t see how it can be seen as anything but a mild disappointment, BO-wise.
I can’t believe Poland would steep so low. Actually I can.
If you want to talk no shame, how about Warners?
I mean, it’s one thing to schedule midnight screenings the night before at 12:01am so they are “technically” part of the next day’s gross. But now, they don’t even bother with that bullshit fiction – 10pm Tuesday shows are being counted as Wednesday.
Telemachos, I think no matter what – that budget is going to be a big red asterix next to the final domestic gross.
Assuming the movie (with average word-of-mouth and the POTC factor) totals out around 210-225 -it will be a disappointment, but not an embarassment. If only they could have capped spending in the 150M range…
That’s been the case for awhile now, SteveC. Not sure if it’s always been Warners, though.
Actually these numbers are very silimar to Batman Begins. Batman post 15M for Wed. opening…if you take out the previews for Superman the numbers are the same. No matter what anyone says this bad news. WB was looking for low 250M and high 300M for this baby. This sucker will prob end up with around 225. Wonder what the people at Fox are thinking with X3 most likely to outperform Superman…
BTW – before someone chimes in with a AICN-level bit of reasoning of “Well, those shows ended at 12:30am, so actualy they ARE Wednesday shows.” I have this for you to ponder:
If that’s the case, how come shows scheduled after midnight on non-opening nights will be counted with the previous days grosses? The Bridge in West LA sold out their IMAX shows so fast yesterday that they added an unadvertised screening at 12:55am last night (ie, this morning). Which day’s grosses will get counted with?
jsp, maybe I’m confusing Batman Begins with another movie, but didn’t it also have some Tuesday screenings? I seem to remember going to one. If that’s the case, Superman Returns would look to be in better shape opneing-wise, although word of mouth will be key in the long run.
They’re actually reporting 21.1 now. I think a 7-day total is 100-110 million would be pretty bad. It should definitly do more. Boxofficeguru is predicting 135 million from tuesday to sunday. That actually seems pretty reasonable and a decent opening.
Colin,
Batman had midnight screenings, not Tuesday 10pm screenings…
jsp: It’s probably safe to assume that Batman Begins had early screenings that added to the WED number. All big movies do. Except in this case it was 10pm and not midnight. Same thing, just a few hours earlier.
Superman has definately outperformed Batman at the same stage. The better comparison is War of the Worlds (both Wednesday openings in the low 20′s).
Of course, WOW didn’t have to deal with an 800 pound gorilla opening the following weekend…
Okay, Cory, but the fact that they were midnight screenings only relates to the ‘ethics of counting Tuesday screenings toward Wednesday grosses,’ right? The point would still be that BB made $15m on Wednesday + Tues/Wed. midnight screenings while SR made $21m on Wednesday + Tuesday at 10:00 screenings? or am I wrong?
It’s just one (and a bit) day out of a LONG opening weekend. Factor in a long running time (limiting screen showings) and word-of-mouth and who knows what this film will make long-term?
Films with avarage opening weekends have gone on to earn a fortune!
War of the World’s Wednesday opening: $21,256,483
Superman’s Wednesday opening: $21,050,000
colin, i’m pretty sure batman begins didn’t have previews – anyone know? – if it did your right superman is starting off better than batman but I still think 21M is a disappointing number. A film like Superman needs 30M+ for Warners to be happy because we know the Pirates are around the corner.
Matt, the SR WOM is mixed at this point. It’s possible that it will build better WOM and stronger legs, but at this point I’d say the probability is that it’ll perform like any major blockbuster these days with mixed WOM — it’ll be fairly frontloaded and probably reach somewhere between $215-235 million. Which — like KONG — isn’t terrible but isn’t up to expectations either.
I’d guess that Superman’s 5-day opening will be around $95-105 million… but since X3 made that in 3 days, I can’t see how SR’s projected numbers are anything but disappointing. What will be particularly embarrassing for WB is if X3′s opening 3-days actually out-performs Superman’s 5 day — at this point I’d say it’s got a 50-50 chance.
I only know one person who has seen the film thus far, but internet word seems to be average (even among the Superman-zealots). I’m sure a clearer picture will emerge over the next few days.
so, uhm, if i start having sex at 11pm and climax at 1am, did i have sex tuesday or wednesday?
Speaking of word-of-mouth, how long after the weekend box office numbers come out before the fan-boy base and Warner’s apologists start downplaying the less than historical gross because of the running time?
Side note: doesn’t feel like Warner Bros. has bascially thrown in the towel on their tent pole picture? In sunday’s LA Times, there was a two-page full color spread for PIRATES. It was several pages before the fold, so I assummed when I got to the fold I would find a RETURNS two pager.
Nope. Then I thought maybe they were waiting for opening day. Nada. Just the pull-quote one.
I can remember the build up to the first film coming out, the whole “You Will Believe A Man Can Fly” campaign. But what it really did was make SUPERMAN – THE MOVIE feel like an event.
RETURNS does not feel like an “event.” I am planning on going today, to the IMAX version. It feels more like an obligation, a requirement to keep my “Summer Blockbuster Fan” membership card than a chance to be wowed. No one in my circle of friends or even acquaintances is excited to see this thing (outside of the giant Superman fan who works at LaserBlazer who passionately went on about the JJ Abrams script).
To paraphrase Bill Hicks: If you work in the Warner marketing department – kill yourself. You have done nothing to sell this film.
Thunder – if you started having sex and didn’t climax until two hours later…
If you are a man, you are every woman’s dream.
If you are a woman, every man’s nightmare.
At boxofficemojo you can check out how this compares to other Wednesday openings of movies that had huge total grosses. I’m especially impressed since many people still think its opening on June 30th. (WB really should have changed those posters!!)
Anyway, it’s higher than the Wednesday openings of a bunch of HUGE movies, including the first Pirates of the Carribean ($305 million total), Shrek 2 ($441 million) and LOTR:Fellowship of the Ring ($313 million). Not bad for the start of a new franchise! Superman is back!
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/?page=wed&p=.htm
Also, it’s so wierd to me that David Poland has such an obvious agenda against this film! He really wants this movie to fail for some reason. Reporting fake boxoffice numbers like that?? What is his deal?
It’s insane. It’s like he has an investment in SR failing or something.
Zach,
This is turning into the internet geek equivalent of the Dan Rather/Bush National Guard documents story. I seriously doubt that Poland thought they were fake at the time. However, posting them was probably ill-advised.
And as far as having an agenda: what is wrong with rooting against a film you think is crap? There’s never been a movie that you were pleased to see do badly?
I can safely say that many people (the ones who aren’t internet nerds like us) don’t even know Supes is out yet. I called my bro to talk to him about the flick yesterday, and he thought I saw some special screening. Not everyone is on AICN checking release dates daily. And many of the people who see this will be a little more mainstream than people seeing X3, which means longer legs. People like my parents never see things opening weekend, but they’re gonna see this (eventually) I think this one can’t be judged after 1 day!
Zach, while those numbers are certainly correct, none of those films are really a good comparison. SHREK was a family CG film and a sequel to a super-popular DVD movie — all this counted towards big legs (which it flexed immediately that weekend). LOTR:FOTR had a huge Oscar campaign and the winter holidays to run amuck with its grosses. And POTC came out of the blue, capturing a demographic that was being under-served in the market.
All three films also got fantastic word of mouth — which SR hasn’t gotten so far.
What did you expect from a Supes hater? honest reporting? Polands the Dan Rather of the biz now.
Poland’s a hypocrite. He rails against the AICN crew, but he’s exactly the same. If you give him access, he will love the project. I bet he’s already written his review of Dreamgirls already.
Poland needs to stop banging on other folks’ “reporting” — in his MCN 20 Weeks of Summer today, he “reports” “Of course, there is also this to consider? this is the most expensive summer in the history of the movie business. If reports are accurate, Click will be the first $100 million grosser of this summer to cost less than $100 million to produce.”
I mean, sure he hates The Break Up, but IMDB lists its budget as $52 million.
where is Jeff’s PIRATES review? Didn’t he say he was seeing it this week? Hmmm……
Lesterg,
I understand what you’re saying, and certainly there are some bad films that I don’t mind seeing do poorly. But it certainly seems unprofessional for a journalist, even an online journalist to make such a concerted effort to create bad internet buzz. I suppose he shouldn’t be considered a real journalist?
I guess I’m just surprised to see someone rooting so heavily against a film that I thought was really good! Posting numbers that are lower than the actual figures in an effort to create negative buzz? Seriously, very unprofessional. Maybe he disagrees with some of the creative choices Singer and his team made, but when you see the film, its very obvious that a lot of people put a lot of time and worked very hard to create it. Why root so heavily against that? Seems meanspirited, and like he has an axe to grind or something. Anyway, I thought the film was fantastic! And, all of my friends did too. Can’t wait to see it again.
Well, Poland’s not backing off. Here’s his update after posting his initial numbers:
“Warner Bros Reporting $21 Million For Superman Returns… What B.O. Elements Are In That Number Have Not Been Explained… Tuesday Night, Pre-Sales, IMAX, Etc…”
Of course, this ignores the fact that a kot of other box office web sites are coming up with similar numbers. Either Poland is the only one who is right and comes out smelling like roses, or his credibility takes a big hit, at least in my book.
The Variety article about the $21 million gross specifically states that it includes the box office from the Tuesday night shows. Poland might not believe WB, but that’s the number they’re putting out there: $21 mil for Tues. late shows and all of Wed.
A film makes in the neighborhood of about 20 million in one day and everybody starts talking about disappointment. What a truly horrifying world we live in. They could have made Sideways a half-dozen times over with the money they spent NOT making this film.
On what planet do you think having bad numbers – not quite as bad as you guys are talking – would be something I might WANT to do? What is the upside? Anyone? Please explain how this nefarious plot helps me… or if you think it is an attack on the film, how does it hurt the film.
Box office reporting, high or low, will not affect this weekend’s numbers anymore than reviews, good or bad, will. It’s marketing, not the movie, when a movie launches with only extremely rare exceptions.
And thanks for the copy edit on The Break-Up, bn. I wish you had sent it to me so I could correct my dumb error sooner. It’s now fixed… and had nothing to do with whether I like Break-Up or not.
Again, being wrong does nothing for me. The only think worth being is right, at least as it pertains to facts.
I do wish I hadn’t run those SP numbers this morning for just one reason. They were off. And the WB figure is off. But now, after getting it wrong, hard to do anything more than sit back and watch the numbers come in all weekend.
Anyway… enough of this visit. Enjoy JeffWorld.
Excuse me, David, but THIS is a typo: “The only think [instead of THING] worth being is right, at least as it pertains to facts.”
What you did in regard to “The Break-Up” was make a FACTUAL ERROR. Kinda like what you did with the “SR” grosses.
If you can’t tell the difference….
Come now, David.
The argument was already made above on your behalf that of course you wouldn’t want bad numbers. You would, however, want to report bad numbers and do so eagerly (as you did, Kong reference and all) if you were under the pretense that they were the right numbers, confirming your SR loathing much as the few trickling bad reviews did the other day. That’s all anyone is saying, I think, and it isn’t particularly harsh or unfair to make the claim that yes, you were a little quick to shout “SEE!”
JeffWorld is more fun than DaveWorld lately, you know…
David, have you read the Variety article about the $21 million? It states what’s included pretty clearly. You can keep deluding yourself all day long, but you really just look like a spoiled child, stomping his feet, with fingers in your ears, screaming “Nah nah nah nah” at this point. Give it up, man.
Yeah, I basically agree with what qwiggles is saying. Poland was the first that I saw to post Wednesday numbers, and they were “bad.” I’m also assuming that they were very speculative based on others numbers coming in. Did Poland think that him posting this would hurt SR? No. If it were a movie Dave liked, would he have posted these “bad” numbers so early? I don’t know, and I don’t think it’s a huge deal, but I can see where others would disagree.
Then, basically every other site comes in with significantly higher numbers. And WB also comes in with their $21m estimate. So, Dave, knowing that his numbers were wrong does what? He posts an update questioning WB’s numbers without referencing the other sites’ estimates.
Again, if this were a movie Dave liked or even thought was ok, do you think his update is more positive and mentions the other estimates? I’m almost sure the answer is yes, and that’s where I think he showed his bias in a way that hurt his credibility. It’s not a huge deal, and I see that he’s now posted another, more positive update now.
Poland knows no shame.
Poland can go straight to hell.
Zach, you wrote “Posting numbers that are lower than the actual figures in an effort to create negative buzz? Seriously, very unprofessional.”
And yet studios regularly and with impunity report box office figures they know to be inflated 100% to get the good buzz out of Sunday and Monday box office stories, aware that nobody will ever pay any attention to the ACTUAL figures when they’re released on Monday afternoon and turn out to be one or two or three million lower. Nobody ever makes them apologize for fudging those figures.
Yes, where a loop of “The Phantom of the Opera” will be playing over and over. It’s his favorite, you know?
I’ve defended David Poland and Jeffrey Wells before, even when I’ve disagreed with them, to people who thought both were assholes.
But this was fucking low. What a piece of shit move, Poland.
Never reading you again. I hope something devastating happens to your typing hands.
Nice to see the typical cordial comments from CHUD popping up here.
I’m no huge fan of Poland’s, but c’mon, some of the vitriol directed towards him here is kinda ridiculous.
Never get between fanboys and their movies. The upcoming war between the SR and POTC2 fanboys is breaking out now on BoxOfficeMojo and World of KJ and other box-office sites.
Now Poland is trying to bury the story by posting links to weeks-old teasers…Nice, Davey…
JoJo wrote, “Now Poland is trying to bury the story by posting links to weeks-old teasers…Nice, Davey…”
Gee, do you think that if Poland wanted to actually cover up his mistake he might just, you know, delete the inaccurate information?
It’s right there. It’s on the page. He apologizes for the mistake. He posts the corrected figures.
Would somebody — anybody? — please explain the damage to society (or even to “Superman Returns”) caused by Poland’s mistake?
Just curious…
I’m with Ian on this.
Ian:
It’s simple: if he deletes it entirely, it makes him look even worse. He’s burying it under tons of useless links, which is slightly more “acceptable” than deleting it, since he could argue (very weakly…) that the new posts/links are legitimate news.
I can’t believe I am biting on this, but…
The MCN homepage always operates the same way… stories move down. Did you know that Chris Weitz was back on His Dark Materials? I didn’t. Did you know that the Rings musical was planning on closing? I didn’t. The Jesse James trailer was on top at Apple when I went there… I haven’t seen it before.
We don’t remove links or hide errors. We make notes and keep our mistakes, in the rare of event of making one, public. Do you know ANY other outlet that does that? I don’t.
Me? I’d be wondering why your boy here didn’t write about MCN’s scoop on Souhland Tales or our first release of the LAFF winners. I know… more useless news…
Drama queens of the world unite.
Speaking of word-of-mouth, how long after the weekend box office numbers come out before the fan-boy base and Warner’s apologists start downplaying the less than historical gross because of the running time?
Side note: doesn’t feel like Warner Bros. has bascially thrown in the towel on their tent pole picture? In sunday’s LA Times, there was a two-page full color spread for PIRATES. It was several pages before the fold, so I assummed when I got to the fold I would find a RETURNS two pager.
Nope. Then I thought maybe they were waiting for opening day. Nada. Just the pull-quote one.
I can remember the build up to the first film coming out, the whole “You Will Believe A Man Can Fly” campaign. But what it really did was make SUPERMAN – THE MOVIE feel like an event.
RETURNS does not feel like an “event.” I am planning on going today, to the IMAX version. It feels more like an obligation, a requirement to keep my “Summer Blockbuster Fan” membership card than a chance to be wowed. No one in my circle of friends or even acquaintances is excited to see this thing (outside of the giant Superman fan who works at LaserBlazer who passionately went on about the JJ Abrams script).
To paraphrase Bill Hicks: If you work in the Warner marketing department – kill yourself. You have done nothing to sell this film.
I have yet to hear anything from Warner Bros. or Bryan Singer that this movie is SUPPOSED to break box office records. But of course hope the movie does well at the box office. Seeing that it’s been 19 years since the last Superman movie came out and that it had started to become a failing franchise after Superman 3.. So $21 million dollars for an opening day for Superman Returns is actually quite good..
Actually, David, yes, I knew about Weitz. It was in the trades, and mentioned elsewhere online.
The Jesse James teaser debuted literally weeks ago, and has been on Apple for at least two weeks now. If you’re that far behind the times, perhaps you have a problem.
It’s insane. It’s like he has an investment in SR failing or something.
Poland framed the New Line press release strangely, granted. Weitz’s return to the film was reported in the trades back in early May and it made an appearance in both Variety and the HR. However, you may not have known the film’s budget, production start date or that they had chosen a lead actress for the movie. If Poland had decided to make any of those pieces of information into the lead, the release would have seemed at least semi-fresh.
I can’t find any excuse for his having decided to post a trailer that premiered back in April. Are you sure it’s the same old trailer?
It’s not even a trailer. It’s a teaser. And, yes, it’s the same one.
Agree with you re: the other elements surrounding THE GOLDEN COMPASS, but, as you said, since Poland didn’t focus on any of those *new* tidbits, I’m left with my belief that he’s posting stories to drive down his bizarre Superman comments.
And, Poland, if you’re still around, here’s the Variety story FROM EARLY MAY announcing that Weitz was back in as the director:
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117942717?categoryid=1238&cs=1&query=%22chris+weitz%22&display=chris+weitz
Perhaps a re-wording is needed on your link to the latest article? There’s no “fanfare,” as you put it, because the rest of us knew about this 7 weeks ago…
Hmmm…perhaps Davey is too busy using Google archive searches to come up with his next “new” link to address this issue now…
where is Jeff’s PIRATES review? Didn’t he say he was seeing it this week? Hmmm……
uhh, JoJo, he probably stopped reading this thread a couple hours ago. Let it go man.
Why should we let it go? Poland has attempted to defend himself by making moronic statements that aren’t defensible. He’s got some weird ax to grind, and he won’t let it go, so I won’t, either. If he’s running MCN and truly did not know that Weitz was back as director and/or that the JESSE JAMES teaser debuted more than 2 months ago, I question his legitimacy.
David Poland said, “We don’t remove links or hide errors. We make notes and keep our mistakes, in the rare of event of making one, public. Do you know ANY other outlet that does that? I don’t.”
As of 8:24 PM, he (or someone else at MCN) has now removed the link to the JESSE JAMES teaser, and has reworded the link to the Chris Weitz story so that it no longer makes it seem like MCN missed the boat on the initial announcement.
So much for “we don’t remove links or hide errors,” huh, Poland?