Weekend projections
Judd Apatow and Greg Mottola‘s Superbad, easily the sharpest and funniest teen-sex comedy in ages, has an issue of concern. New tracking is in and it’s not doing all that well — 26, 25 and 1. For a film that’s opening in two and a half weeks — Friday, 8.17 — that’s not awful (things can change) but the marketers have to start scrambling. The film clearly sells itself, so Sony should sneak it this weekend. The trailer plays nicely, but it doesn’t really convey how above-par exceptional this film is.
The Bourne Ultimatum, opening this weekend, is running at 91, 56 and 28 — figure a three-day tally in the $70 to $80 million range. Bratz is 46, 13 and somewhere between 0 and 1. El Cantante is at 46, 16 and 3. Hot Rod — 62, 25 and 2. Among the new releases, Underdog — 80,16 and 3 — will probably be the #2 film after Bourne. Rush Hour, opening the weekend after next, looks very good but not explosive — 80, 45 and 9.
I’ll say – that Superbad trailer does not make me interested in seeing it in the least.
Have you seen the red-band trailer, Darth? I was lukewarm on the movie until I saw that cut of the trailer. I’ve since watched it about 20 times and cannot wait for this movie.
geeky kids trying to get laid, ehhh, maybe its run its course..
people want to pay money to see Underdog?
Superbad will be fine once it opens. Teenagers do not think about what they’ll be doing three weekends from now.
it’s an R-rated film. The teens can’t buy tickets for this movie (without a grown up).
“it’s an R-rated film. The teens can’t buy tickets for this movie (without a grown up).”
They’ll just do what we (well, most of us) did back when we were teens: buy tickets to the PG movie and sneak into the R-rated one.
Which is unfortunate for SUPERBAD if its as good as I’ve heard; it sounds like it deserves to be a big hit.
You know, I think by “teenagers” I meant young adults – 17-to-25 year olds. Myself included.
I went to a screening last week and the audience ate it up. It will get the word-of-mouth push, for sure. That said, I would probably not have gone based on what I’d seen in advance. The marketing doesn’t do it justice, and every time I’ve mentioned it to somebody I’ve been told, “What’s that? I haven’t heard about it.” But everyone seems to know about UNDERDOG and STARDUST…
I have to ask, but where are the TV trailers for it? I would have thought that it would be all over Adult Swim since that’s a big demographic for this film, but nothing so far.
That being said, I was able to snag a movie poster for it at Otakon, and those posters went quick.
Geeky kids trying to get laid will never run its course. This is a permanent font of humor.
Saw the Apatow panel at Comic-Con. He was there with Seth Rogen, Michael Cera and Jonah Hill. Superbad is going to kick all kinds of ass.
Apatow also previewed Walk Hard: the Dewey Cox Story, which is coming out at Christmas. They showed the first five minutes and it had the audience roaring. This thing is going to be great.
John C Reilly plays Dewey Cox, a musical legend and the film is a parody of Ray and Walk the Line. Minor spoilers ahead…
It opens with a stagehand looking for Dewey to take the stage (“I need Cox!”). Cox stands in the shadows, deep in thought.
Tim Meadows steps forward and says, “Mr. Cox always thinks of his entire life before every performance.”
Dissolve to flashback of Dewey living in a dusty cabin, evoking both Ray and Walk the Line. There was more, but I won’t give away anything else.
I can almost guarantee Superbad will be my favorite movie this summer, even though I haven’t seen it. It’s the Knocked Up of the 2nd half of the summer!
“It opens with a stagehand looking for Dewey to take the stage (“I need Cox!”).”
(preceeding this comment was the sound of a balloon slowly hissing flat) – Fantastic. Jokes like that haven’t already been beaten to death on SNL and elsewhere already. Ranks right up there with fart noises and shots of guys getting hit in the crotch by something.
I remember when people were trying to convince me that it was gonna be “huge”.
“The film clearly sells itself,”
No, it really doesn’t, because most kids don’t act like those jackasses, since they have lives.
vansmith: “geeky kids trying to get laid, ehhh, maybe its run its course.”
I think the fact that they’re the butt of the joke and not the chicks is what makes this one unappealing to the average guy. It’s like watching an American Pie film where all the guys are played by Jason Biggs.
Ron: “…This thing is going to be great. John C Reilly plays Dewey Cox, a musical legend and the film is a parody of Ray and Walk the Line.”
I’m guessing it’ll do as well as that Tenacious D movie last year…
corey: “people want to pay money to see Underdog?”
Maybe they’re hoping he’ll do more than the dog which played Odie in Garfield.
Actually, those “Superbad” tracking numbers are decent. Because it is (essentially) a teen sex comedy, there’s going to be a limited audience. The fact that the “awareness” number and the “want to see” number are almost dead even suggests that they’re hitting the sweet spot in terms of targeting their marketing to the right audience. “Borat” was tracking at 40-39-10 mere days before it opened, and that lack of gap was part of why it did so well.
MattM:
>”Borat” was tracking at 40-39-10 mere days before >it opened, and that lack of gap was part of why it >did so well.
Borat had a better marketing campaign.
MattM, You’re reading the numbers wrong. The 2nd number is essentially a percentage of the first. The 2nd number is not just “want to see.” It’s the percentage of people who are aware of the movie (that’s the first number: awareness) who are definitely interested.
The “gap” that you’re speaking of is meaningless. The 2nd number can be twice as high (or even higher) as the first number, in theory.
They should take a chance and roll this out slowly a la BORAT and build up a stronger want-to-see factor. The marketing campaign isn’t that strong and a lot of people outside the interdork community are getting the title confused with HOT ROD, believe it or not. It’s a hilarious and satisfying movie that pretty much everyone loves after seeing it, so word of mouth is going to be strong. It’s an inexpensive production that will be huge in ancillary markets regardless of its theatrical take, so they don’t really have much to lose by doing a BORAT-style platform.
“Ranks right up there with fart noises and shots of guys getting hit in the crotch by something.”
hpw dare you attack the pillars of modern american comedy.
From today’s http://www.imdb.com/news/wenn/2007-07-31/ : Movie executives at Paramount scrapped an idea to wrap up The Godfather movies with a fourth film – because they refused to pay an ailing Mario Puzo. Director Francis Ford Coppola offered to help the dying author pen the screenplay for a final film for free, but penny-pinching studio bosses still refused to greenlight the idea. Ford Coppola, who initially balked at the idea of directing sequels to his 1972 masterpiece, admits he was so desperate to help Puzo before he died in 1999 that he offered to co-write the screenplay for no charge. He recalls, “He and I cooked up an idea for what there would be for The Godfather IV and we went to Paramount… and we said, ‘Look, Mario is not well. Hire him to write this Godfather IV script, I will help him, do it for nothing…’ Mario was very concerned to leave his kids some money and they just never made the deal… Mario died and it was heartbreaking.”
I was talking to 2 soccer moms this weekend and each of their childreen (boy 12, girl 12) saw the trailer on tv and want to see the movie … I mentioned that they will be answering a lot of questions if they do (like: Mom what is a male cameltoe?)
That red-band trailer severely crippled my desire to see the film. The theatrical trailer is like a perfectly cut short film, it stands alone, one of the best comedy trailers in a long time. The red-band is mostly gross and nonsensical, and I am confused by the anachronisms, such as watching porn on a laptop. I’m a little worried also that Jonah might be a good supporting comedian, best in small doses and not ready or able to carry a film. But then I thought the same about Seth Rogen, and I was very, very wrong.
Hey D.Z., we are all able to read WENN if we so choose. It’s available to everyone, it’s not a dog whistle.
BurmaShave, SUPERBAD is set in present day, so why is watching porn on a laptop an anachronism?
I am surprised by the tracking because the TV ads for SUPERBAD have been playing since KNOCKED UP was in theatres. I saw them on network programming back then, and today am seeing them a lot more. And it doesn’t open for three weeks. They have been advertising this longer than most films.
It is also one of those films, like GRINDHOUSE, that everyone on the internet seems to be talking about. I hope it doesn’t have the same fate as that film.
I have seen Walk Hard and I can say, for certain, that it is every bit as unfunny and obnoxious as any of the Scary Movies. Joke after joke hits with a dull thud. Garbage comedy. John C. Reilly has officially sold his soul- I wonder if PTA will ever work with him again?
It’s difficult for me to accept John C. ever selling his soul, and he has earned enough goodwill to get the benefit of the doubt. However, the appearance of his that really sunk to a abysmal low was showing up on that unwatchable (for me, at least) Adult Swim program Tim and Eric Awesome Show, Great Job!, or whatever it’s called.
I could see it being funny… but the trailer really isn’t very good.
Dzayson,
You are, in every possible way, full of shit. Or you have no taste. Period.
am i the only one not enthralled with the seemingly endless comedy stylings of apatow?
Yes.
now i feel a litle better.
You feel better because you’re alone in this specific type of bad taste?
“You feel better because you’re alone in this specific type of bad taste?”
if that means not thinking lines like “You can get pinkeyed from farting in a pillow?” is the height of great comedy, then i feel fine. but you clearly know more of wit than i, o’ master rothchild of the beloved madding crowd.
The scene with Seth Rogen and Paul Rudd in the hotel room is the height of great comedy. “It’s amazing that chairs even exist when you’re not sitting on them.”
Christian, you are not alone. Apatow is indeed the comedy Anti-Christ. Even James Dean in REBEL WITHOUT A CAUSE would be disgusted by the characters in SUPERBAD.