Best Actress Guru rundown
The top five Gurus of Gold Best Actress contenders are Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose), Julie Christie (Away From Her), Keira Knightley (Atonement), Ellen Page (Juno), and Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age).
Julie Christie in Away From Her.
The second five (positions #6 through #10) are Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart), Laura Linney (The Savages), Halle Berry (Things We Lost in the Fire), Cate Blanchett again (in I’m Not There), Julia Roberts (Charlie Wilson’s War), Marketa Irglova (Once), Jodie Foster (The Brave One) and Charlize Theron (In The Valley of Elah).
Cotillard is a lock. Christie is very probable. Knightley is a maybe (because some believe that her role in Atonement is close to supporting-level). Page is said to have a headwind but I’m not so sure — she’s smart, gutsy and very likable but her Juno performance is basically a force-of-personality thing. A Blanchett nom for Elizabeth: The Golden Age is out of the question because the movie is a joke, but she’s absolutely miraculous as Blonde on Blonde Dylan in I’m Not There. (Harvey, you know what to do.)
Jolie gave the best performance of her life as Marianne Pearl in A Mighty Heart, but the quick box-office death of this film (which shouldn’t matter) seems to matter to some. Linney is excellent in The Savages, but the movie’s a grim sit. Paramount/DreamWorks won’t let me see Things We Lost in the Fire so I don’t know about Berry. Julia Roberts has too small a role in Charlie Wilson’s War to qualify. Marketa Irglova is fresh and lovely in Once, but she’s not in the game. Foster gives a full-of-feeling performance in The Brave One but I don’t think it’ll happen (in part because the shoot-em-up story is too ’70s, in part because the ending was too much, in part because the movie fizzled). For my money Charlize Theron is better in Elah than she was in North Country, but that doesn’t cut any ice with the people who are determined to keep this film down and tied up in a burlap bag.
Somebody said it last summer (maybe Poland): Each movie is its own little war.
Ellen Page is one of the planet’s most overrated actresses. I can’t stand that plucky little kid.
have you seen HARD CANDY?
at her pluckiest
i haven’t seen JUNO yet but Page was just incredible in HARD CANDY I thought.
What about Linney for the Savages? She should already have an Oscar by now.
Yikes, rough field this year. Tough to weigh in because I haven’t seen any of those Top 5 films. Surprised Kidman’s not on the list for Margot at the Wedding. Don’t think Theron really has a chance, strong as she is in Elah. It’s not showy enough, especially compared to her perfs in Monster and North Country. As for Foster, I thought she was great in The Brave One but that doesn’t strike me as Oscar material. I acknowledge there may be a chance for Page, but you’ve gotta figure that Berry or Linney takes that fifth slot, especially the latter. We’ll see… I’ll be pulling for Susan Sarandon as supporting though.
And yeah, Ellen Page is great in Hard Candy. I gotta check her out in The Tracy Fragments, which I hear is going straight to DVD.
MiraJeff, did you really think Sarandon was that good in Mr. Woodcock? (I kid, I kid)
I haven’t seen Juno, but it seems that people are really going crazy over Ellen Page, whose performance in Hard Candy was a bit too mannered for my tastes. But it’s always refreshing to see a young actress these days who cares about the craft and not about the perks.
Best performance I’ve seen by a woman this year is either Julie Christie or Marketa Irglova. I’m thinking only one of them will get a nod.
I always feel so dirty when I look at Ellen Page. I mean I know she is actually legal, but damn she doesn’t look it. Chris Hansen, please note my remorse.
Why are there only 10 actresses listed?
We need a pundits of HE scorecard. Who’s game to embarrass themself? I’ll administer.
Force of personality is what won Julia her oscar (although it was the perfect vehicle and a perfectly calibrated force-of-personality performance) I like that expression, force of personality. I may borrow it.
I hope Kiera doesn’t win anything. Her pursed lips routine in the Pirates movies was so awful I can’t watch her in anything now.
Berry will not get one for Things We lost in the Fire. Saw it last Firday, and the movie is really chopy, and although it seems like there was a good movie in there somewhere, it wasn’t up on the screen.
Benicio does what he can, but the film just plays like a string of moments that aren’t properly connected. It needed a rewrite or way better editing or something, because Berry’s character is never believable (even if she is grieving, she still rediculous).
Considering the strength of the other actresses, Berry should not get a nomination. It’s an uneven perf that doesn’t connect in a real way.
so, it’s conceivable that cate could win an oscar for ‘elizabeth’ and an independent spirit for ‘i’m not there’……..has anything like that happened before?
Ellen Page will be nominated. Ellen Page could win. Anyone who takes issue with either of those comments…. has the wrong thread count.
I love Julie Christie, but Marion Cotillard gives a bigger, more complete performance.
Joe I agree. I can totally see Ellen Page winning and a whole lot of people on this board getting very angry. This is sight unseen on JUNO mind you, but I get vibes.
i’d be thrilled to see page win….i just don’t think she’s gonna for ‘juno’ (and i’m amazed at the number of people who didn’t see/don’t remember ‘hard candy’…..
I really wish Jolie would get a nod, box-office bomb or not, and Linney’s waaaay overdue. But they’ll probably give it to Blanchett because playing someone called “Queen Elizabeth” is practically a guarantee of a win. What about the perennial favourite Streep for Lions for Lambs?
I hope that “Linney is due” becomes an Oscar catchphrase. She’s in five movies this year, and she’s always superb, even The Nanny Diaries. I haven’t seen The Savages yet, but at this point, she should probably be in the running for Jindabyne.
Cate Blanchett is winning the Best Actress Oscar and the Golden Globe for ELIZABETH, with her only serious competition Keira Knightly, lightly at her heels. Nobody else has pictures people will actually see. I’m very good at this prediction lark, so pay attention to me, not jeff, who is hopeless at this sort of thing.
Sinclair, it wasn’t necessary to put “pay attention to me” in your post. That’s pretty much implied in everything you write.
Rob, for what it’s worth, I’ve always resisted Linney to some degree in the past, but think she’s better than she’s ever been before in The Savages (which is clearly her, and not PSH’s) movie). She totally deserves a nomination, and will likely get one. A win would not upset me at all.
There’s no way Blanchett will win for “Elizabeth”. The winner of this year’s Best Actress award will benefit from voter fatigue over queens and biopics. In addition to her sweep for playing QE2, Helen Mirren was equally as dominant in the TV honors for her HBO movie on QE1. Enough.