Hooray for older women and Hispanics
Hats off, older women and Hispanics, for coalescing solidly behind Hillary Clinton coast to coast, and thereby all but ensuring the death of a beautiful dream and (bonus!) the triumph of a frosty and divisive harridan whose candidacy will unite the right by inflaming it, and whose presidency will bring back a corrosive revival of the Hate Wars of the ’90s. Precisely what this country needs.
A Newsweek report explains that Hispanic voters are guided partly by ignorance (a fall ’07 survey found that a quarter of Hispanics had “never even heard” of Obama) and racial animosities (i.e., longstanding competitive struggles with African- American communities “over resources, representation in politics, education”).
The myopia pervading the ranks of middle-class women has come into clear relief over the last several weeks. Rather than turn the page and usher in the possibility of a new era and a new attitude, they want a woman in the White House…period. The likelihood that Hillary forces will go down to defeat waving the flag of sisterly solidarity or, if she wins, revive the rightist rage of the ’90s matters not to them. The possibility of symbolic gender triumph is all. They will not see.
Santa Barbara social columnist Craig Smith told me last night that every over-40 woman he knows in the area is square behind Hillary — no ifs, ands or buts. Consider, also, the emotionally fevered “with us or against us!” sentiment in this anti-Ted Kennedy statement issued yesterday by NOW (Nat’l Organization of Women).
Politico‘s Jeff Ressner spoke with poet-rocker Patti Smith during Sundance and even she — Patti Smith! — was skeptical about Obama. “I’m still waiting to hear an emotional connection to him,” she told Ressner. “I haven’t felt it, and I don’t know why.” I think I do. Forget it. Game pretty much over.
(gets the popcorn out)
The Democrats have long been about bloc voting. You can’t complain when a close race inside the party becomes one bloc against another.
Kennedy JUST came out…give other high-profile supporters at least a few days to do the same before jumping off a cliff. While Kennedy’s endorsement could doom Obama in the general election with independents and cross-overs, it should help in the primaries.
Before the race Obama should have started adding a little salt & pepper to his hair…a little grey would go a long way.
Patti Smith, still waiting for an emotional connection? To Obama? WTF? I don’t want Obama to be President for anything and the guy reaches me.
Frigid much?
Don’t discount my primary ethnicity’s ability to ditch someone and support someone else. All Obama has to do in the California debate is be clearly in favor of immigrant rights and paint Hillary as “that woman who doesn’t really support you and will say anything to make you think she does”.
Seriously, you are 100% right, and it’s not just women over 40. The nauseating go-Hill videos on Perez’s site (Ugly Betty and Joan of Arcadia with Chelsea, Chelsea murmuring that she thought she couldn’t be any prouder of her Mom) really socked it to me — there are people in the world who just connect with Hillary. I cannot understand how that is possible. Girls I known in the Juno demo also seem pro-Hill.
Jeff, thanks for lumping all hispanics into the ‘vote for Hillary’ category. Can Obama beat McCain? I don’t know, it would be close. Hillary is still in the race, so she could still win, and wouldn’t you like that, Jeff? You’d have something to bitch about for the next 4 years. Beseides movies/actors/directors/studios/the public….
You know there’s some Hillary supporter out there who’s made this exact post regarding Obama, but insert “feckless kids” for “older women” and “blacks” for “Hispanics”.
Like Harry, I’m a conservative who probably doesn’t agree with Obama on anything.
But if his candidacy and his words don’t stir you, you probably don’t have a soul. Which means you were probably for Hillary anyway.
The thing about the women who support Hillary is they are so 100% sold on her her that it’s tough to even tease out a debate with them about why they’re supporting her. They won’t admit they just want to see a woman elected president, and they don’t have anything else to stand on.
As for Hispanics, doesn’t Obama just have to go to L.A. and give one giant speech on Black-Latino relations? This won’t deliver all the Latinos for him but it should prevent him from getting trounced. Jimmy Smits did the reverse on the West Wing, giving a soaring speech in a Black Church while running as a Hispanic candidate.
Speaking of which, if McCain and Obama are the nominees, does this election not eerily resemble the Vinnick/Santos campaign in the final season of the West Wing?
Wells to BNick: “Like Harry, I’m a conservative who probably doesn’t agree with Obama on anything. But if his candidacy and his words don’t stir you, you probably don’t have a soul. Which means you were probably for Hillary anyway.” Eloquent. Hats off.
I’m still amazed at the news reports that assume that Obama will get minority votes just because he’s black. If you live anywhere near Los Angeles, or areas with a similar racial makeup, you know (or should) that there is a huge divide between the Hispanic and African-American communities. I’m not going to make a blanket statement and say that the Hispanic population of this country is racist, but just don’t expect Obama to get the majority of their votes.
Personally, I find Bill a more strident and whacked out of his mind, angry bully, pathetic demigod, and for that reason alone, I can’t stand Hillary. Obama is the only hope for us being ok again. Four years of him and then something great will come along.
I don’t know what Obama’s “has a negative view of” number is nationally, but Hillary Clinton’s has been hovering around 50% for a few years. This leaves very little wiggle room if the Democrats think they will win in November with Clinton as their torchbearer. Almost beyond belief that a Republican could actually win the next election after two administrations of Bush/Cheney. Think about the big picture, Democrats.
Why so negative? I think it’s very possible this will be a close race, especially by delegate count, and Edwards will end up being kingmaker at the convention. And you know that would fall to Obama.
I’m sure this alleged “race hatred” between Latinos and blacks will be news to all the black politicians across the country who came into office with the support of Latino voters.
I’m a big Obama supporter, too — but if he loses this thing the blame will rest not with Jeff’s favorite minority scapegoats, but with the fact that his campaign operation didn’t get going in the Super Tuesday states early enough. Everybody thought this was going to be a replay of the 04 race, where one guy came out ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire and everything fell into place afterwards. Bzzzt.
Bilge, which black politicians, specifically, carried a majority of the Hispanic vote? I’d really like to know.
Monument — Here are the first examples that come to me:
Harold Washington, mayor of Chicago (if memory serves he polled over 70% with Latinos)
David Dinkins, mayor of New York (ditto)
Ron Kirk, mayor of Dallas
Tom Bradley, mayor of Los Angeles
Charlie Rangel, Representative from New York
There are countless others, obviously…
http://www.suntimes.com/news/novak/762195,CST-EDT-novak28.article
“Clinton’s veteran Latino political operative Sergio Bendixen was quoted as saying, ”The Hispanic voter — and I want to say this very carefully — has not shown a lot of willingness to support black candidates.”
Obama disagrees, but historically it has been true. Do yourself a favor and spend some time in Compton and tell me how the black and latino population gets along.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/104725
“If you look at the Western states√¢‚Ǩ‚ÄùCalifornia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona√¢‚Ǩ‚Äùthere are some 1,000 delegates, and in each of these states the Latino population is in double digits. The tensions between blacks and Latinos and negative perceptions that have marred relations between these groups for so long unfortunately still resonate, and I believe there will still be reluctance among many Latinos to vote for an African-American candidate. It can be devastating for Obama and good for Hillary Clinton, especially given the fact that the Latino vote is growing and could be a much more significant factor, depending on the turnout.”
Monument, I quoted you some facts, but all you can come back with is: “Spend some time in Compton and see how the black and Latino population gets along”???? I’ve got news for you: The USA isn’t Compton.
Why don’t *you* quote some facts? I’d like to see some examples of black politicians, particularly high-profile Democrats, who lost elections because the majority of the Latino vote went to their opponent. I’m genuinely curious. So far as I can tell nobody has come up with any.
How many high profile black candidates are there in this country? How many of them are elected in states with a large or majority hispanic population? Some, but not many. Maybe the votes will prove me wrong, but race relations between blacks and latinos especially in the west are horrible, and apparently I’m not the only person to have observed this.
First, thanks for the kind words Jeff.
Second, I think people are confusing issue here. Instances of Latino ambivalence hurting Black candidates are probably few and far between in general elections, because when push comes to shove these groups both vote Democratic with strong majorities (and any district with large numbers of Black AND Latino voters is likely to be solid Democratic).
It is only in a primary race in which one candidate is black and at least one other is not that we’d see the dynamic to which Jeff and others refer. And it seems to me that there aren’t likely to be a lot of examples to point to where a Black candidate for a Democratic nomination of some sort lost out because of Hispanics. Heck, Obama himself won the Illinois Senate nomination in a crowded white field.
“Like Harry, I’m a conservative who probably doesn’t agree with Obama on anything. But if his candidacy and his words don’t stir you, you probably don’t have a soul.”
This from a guy who supports George Bush and his soulless policies. I’m assuming you loved Reagan too. Which is fine, but one thing that connects Obama to Reagan (besides Obama’s shameful pandering) is that both give the kind of speeches that make people think they’re hearing something, when they’re only hearing what they want.
Thus my soul remains intact and impervious to political branding, thank you very much.
“Like Harry, I’m a conservative who probably doesn’t agree with Obama on anything.
But if his candidacy and his words don’t stir you, you probably don’t have a soul. Which means you were probably for Hillary anyway.”
Amen, I agree with every word. I certainly won’t be voting Democrat, but it’s impossible not to admire that man. I can’t fathom a mindset that would say, “You know, I just like Hillary more.”
See the conservatives can agree on Obama! If the liberals could, the Republicans would really be in trouble.
I’d vote for Rambobama.
“‘Like Harry, I’m a conservative who probably doesn’t agree with Obama on anything. But if his candidacy and his words don’t stir you, you probably don’t have a soul.’
This from a guy who supports George Bush and his soulless policies.”
Seriously, christian, that’s an imbecilic way to look at things. The Democrats have a chance to nominate someone who doesn’t totally frighten the other side, someone who has a chance to win with 56 or 57% of the vote, and not 50.1%. And they’re going to toss it away. And for what?
Josh, I seriously think that one of the reasons Hillary still has so much support is that Democrats know that Republicans hate her and she hates them. I think they’re just looking for a fight because they finally think they can win.
They’d have more fun watching Hillary squeak by and have Republicans commit mass suicide than they would watching Obama win in a landslide and bring the country together without having had to beat the Republicans to a bloody pulp first.
Bnick, if you think the GOP is going to swing votes to a black man whose first name rhymes with “Osama” and whose middle name is Hussein, then your faith in the electoral process is devout. Hats off.
But Karl Rove is not sitting on his hands waiting this out. He will be called into service, as others will. I don’t trust Republicans or their policies. We have too much evidence of their failures. And again, I’m not interested in a Democrat who honors Reagan and Bush.
“And again, I’m not interested in a Democrat who honors Reagan and Bush.”
I’m sorry, but that kind of concrete wall thinking is the reason our political process is as divisive as it is. I’m not a huge fan of George Bush or Ronald Reagan, but I have no problem acknowledging the things that they have done well. I think politicians who are willing and able to put aside partisan differences and acknowledge positive aspects of their opponents should be commended.
I’m not even sure you’re totally on the level at this point, christian, because you sound like a perfect caricature of some wild-eyed partisan conspiracy-monger. But I’ll play along assuming you really believe all of what you wrote.
Exactly how is the GOP going to stop its moderate wing from “swing[ing] votes” to Obama if he makes a direct appeal to them? Not to mention Independents. If you have a fired up Democratic electorate plus Independents breaking 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 (if the Republicans nominate Romney) for Obama, then he doesn’t even NEED the GOPers to vote for him and he’ll still get the 56 or 57% of the vote I mentioned. Perhaps even more.
And if Obama is too conservative or cozy to Republicans for your taste (How exactly did he honor Reagan and Bush?), then I was right about what I said before. The Democrats care more about winning a fight than winning the country. It’s not the same thing.
As much as Wells bitches about Edwards giving up the fight, bear in mind that he’s pulling more votes away from Hillary than he is Obama–so the longer he stays in the contest, the better Obama’s chances for the nomination are.
Sobchack?
Wells, I’m sorry. You are obviously entitled to an opinion, but you don’t know shit about politics. Please stick to the movies (which is why I come to your site, to take a break from the backstabbing, headgame world of campaign work).
I wish I was an older Hispanic woman voting for Obama so I could tell you to cram it Jeff, but unfortunately I’m a young Hispanic man voting for Obama… maybe I should give my mother a call.
P.S. I can’t believe this is the post that finally made me comment.
“some wild-eyed partisan conspiracy-monger.”
Because the GOP nor Rove would never do anything illegal nor sleazy. Just ask that possibly mental, faux war-hero McCain about his black love child from 2000. Or ask Kerry about his cowardice when he volunteered for Nam while Bush was fighting the drug war somewhere in Texas.
“Because the GOP nor Rove would never do anything illegal nor sleazy.”
Will that work against Obama? Let’s ask Bill Clinton in South Carolina. And you can bet if the Republicans use the same kind of race-baiting tactics, the outcry will be ten times what it was when the Clintons did it.
And Webster, you’re dead on. Edwards is helping Obama, no doubt. A close look at the SC results bears this out. He’s in the tough position in that he appears to personally prefer Obama, yet the second choice of his voting base appears to be Hillary. So in order to get his preferred outcome, he must stay in the race and drain support from Hillary.
That’s funny, because I am still waiting for an emotional connection to ‘Horses’.
Jeff: I still don’t get why NOW would endorse a woman who stayed with her cheating husband. I’m guessing they suddenly turned into entrenched moderates like the other activists of the 60s. She’s also cozying up to the same religious right against abortion, so I’m not sure what they have to gain from supporting her. Anyway, Latinos and women helped Kerry win the blue states, but I doubt they’ll have much impact on the red states. Edwards looks like he’s about to finally call it quits, too, so there’s hope yet for Obama. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080129/ap_on_el_pr/edwards
As for Smith, well she’s probably just jealous that hip-hop killed punk.
Moises: I imagine most of the Dems are pro-immigration. What Obama needs to do is to specify how he would approach the issue differently than her. Of course, considering they recently had to discontinue a racist stamp in Mexico, the odds still might not be in Obie’s favor. ;-;
ben: I imagine girls in the Juno demo are probably pro-Hillary, because they also have rich parents who wouldn’t disown them if they were knocked up…
BNICK: A light bulb just flashed in my mind in regards to your comment about the female vote. We’ll know in a few days if my idea bore any fruit. That’s all I will say on the matter.
Monument: Um, we elected a black mayor for 20 years…And gang violence in Compton isn’t solely based on race. There are a number of factors involved. The media just likes playing the race card, because it makes it look like it’s a problem exclusive to those neighborhoods, when it’s a problem which is clearly expanding across the country. (*cough* Columbine and Virginia Tech *cough*) Also, while the Latino population has been growing, it’s also not any more uniform in political allegiances than black civil rights leaders who went for Hillary and black youths who went for Obama.
christian: “…one thing that connects Obama to Reagan (besides Obama’s shameful pandering) is that both give the kind of speeches that make people think they’re hearing something, when they’re only hearing what they want.”
Yeah, as if Edwards promising you a pony if he wins isn’t pandering…
“Bnick, if you think the GOP is going to swing votes to a black man whose first name rhymes with “Osama” and whose middle name is Hussein, then your faith in the electoral process is devout.”
They supported a guy who sold weapons to Iranians, and another guy who kisses Saudi ass, so you never know…
Webster: “As much as Wells bitches about Edwards giving up the fight, bear in mind that he’s pulling more votes away from Hillary than he is Obama–so the longer he stays in the contest, the better Obama’s chances for the nomination are.”
That assumes he crowns Obama, and not Hillary.
McCain will kick Hillary’s ass in a national election. Even if conservatives aren’t crazy about McCain they will be wildly energized to vote against Hillary.
Women and Latinos: the two worst kind of people on Earth.
Your work is very good and I appreciate you and hopping for some more informative posts.
| astaga.com lifestyle on the net | astaga.com lifestyle on the net |
thank you for sharing great information to us