Obama nudges ahead in Pennsylvania

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I was a little shocked by a 4.2 Public Policy Polling survey that has Barack Obama edging Hillary Clinton among likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters by 45% to 43%. I thought the big hope for the Obama team was to lose to Clinton in the Keystone State by 10 percentage points or less. I called PPP's Dean Debnan to ask what's happening. He said his team was surprised also "so we went back and ran the survey a second time with a different group of respondents," etc. And the numbers are the numbers.

PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and again on April 1st.

The survey claims that Obama is "narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his customary significant advantage with black voters, [leading] that group 75-17. Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a 50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15 points among men while trailing by 10 points with women."

Public Policy Polling release says it has had "the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on April 2, 2008 at 11:27 AM

comment #1

alan says ...

People are beginning to realize that Clinton is officially over, and Obama will be the nominee. Why vote for a sure loser?

Posted by alan at April 2, 2008 12:04 PM

comment #2

Mr. Buckles says ...

Also note that in the Public Policy poll, 13% of those interviewed were still undecided.

Following the trends of NH, MA and OH, these are Bradley voters who come home to camp clinton when the time comes to pull the lever.

I am still thinking that Obama does well if he keeps his loss under a 10% differential - let's predict 8%.

George B

Posted by Mr. Buckles at April 2, 2008 12:18 PM

comment #3

Geoff says ...

I'm not crossing my fingers for three more weeks (more like 3 months in political time) based on any poll.

But it is surprisingly good news.

Posted by Geoff at April 2, 2008 12:19 PM

comment #4

Celebrity Werewolf Hunter says ...

I remember similar polling that had Obama winning Texas and New Hampshire, and being neck and neck in Ohio. I agree with Mr. Buckles and will not get my hopes up until late night Tuesday April 22nd. Im waiting to see what bombshell she drops the final weekend that pushes the fencers into Clintopia.

Posted by Celebrity Werewolf Hunter at April 2, 2008 1:08 PM

comment #5

appleman says ...

How is that? Read the Philly papers and the Ed Rendell quotes and you'll get another side of the story.

If PA is really just two cities (Phila. and Pittsburgh) with Alabama in between, then you may have the following scenario... Guy walks into his voting booth with the expressed intention of voting for Obama.

Before he pulls the lever - a whole generation of stupidity enters his thoughts and he votes otherwise. I'm just saying.

Posted by appleman at April 2, 2008 2:00 PM

comment #6

D.Z. says ...

It's another case of Hillary resting on her laurels. Also, choosing not to spin herself out of the Bosnia misfire(no pun intended) the way Barack did with Wright probably didn't help much, either...She really needs to come up with another foreign policy "success" story soon, if she wants to stay in the game.

Posted by D.Z. at April 2, 2008 2:43 PM

comment #7

admiralmpj says ...

As an avid Obama supporter, there are three things to keep in mind:

1) PPP has had a good reputation, at least according to the fine folks at Talking Points Memo, who actually keep track of these things.

2) So far the PPP poll is an outlier, in that it's the only poll showing Mr. Obama with a lead. But ALL the polls show that her lead is shriking away...

3) The Primary is still three weeks away.

The problem with polls isn't one of accuracy, it's really that you can't tell how well a job the poll is doing unless you look under the hood, see the formulas within the formulas. What does PPP think African-American turnout will be? Blue Collar Vote? Young Voters? Their formulations on these lines determine what the final number will be. And if those first numbers are wrong, the final result will be wrong. (Mr. Zogby, N.H. calling on line one)

(Man, are we talking math too much on this site or what??)

Basically, I'm happy because things are headed in the right direction, and everyone has decided to train their fire on John McCain...for the moment.

Posted by admiralmpj at April 2, 2008 2:49 PM

comment #8

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comment #10

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comment #11