Big Saturday Numbers

Thursday’s tracking predicted that WALL*E would $50 to $60 million this weekend. Well, it made $23.1 million last night and is looking at $66,441,000 by Sunday night. Handicappers will have to consider next weekend’s numbers (remember that woman at my Disney lot screening who said she was bored?) for a long-range projection, but it’s sure to at least end up in the $200 million-plus realm. A friend went to a commercial screening early yesterday afternoon and saw “plenty of kids but also a lot of adults on their own.”
Wanted — Jesus wept! — did $18,700,000 last night and will end up with $52,500,000 for the weekend. It was supposed to do somewhere over $30 million but not more than $40 million, according to Thursday’s tracking. Just goes to show that among younger males, the appetite for brutish ultra-violent degeneracy is alive and thriving. “Are there really adults who want to sit through this kind of mindless, bullying mayhem?” wrote the Austin Chronicle‘s Josh Rosenblatt. “Maybe I don’t want to know the answer to that one.” Sorry to be the bearer.
Get Smart‘s 2nd week will result in $20,500,000 by Sunday night — a 47% drop. Kung Fu Panda got hit by WALL*E, will do $11.7 million by Sunday night. The cume is $179.3 million, but it’s doing $3 thousand a print now and it may not make the $200 millon mark, although a $1,900,000 tally looks safe.
The Incredible Hulk will do $9.1 million for the weekend for a cume of $115 million. It’s down to $2700 a print, might squeak out another $10 million for a final figure of $125 million. Ang Lee’s Hulk did $132,177,234 at the end of the day, but then ticket prices weren’t as high five years ago.
The Love Guru died last weekend when it opened so it doesn’t matter, and this weekend it’s off 58% — $5,800,000
Indy 4 will do $4.984,000 this weekend for a cume of $299,890,000 — $110 thousand away from $300 million mark. Watch the Paramount guys goose the ads this weekend
SATC will do $3.729 million and The Happening is $3.712 million. The latter will be barely over $60 million at the end of the road. Adam Sandler’s You Don’t Mess with the Zohan will make $3.2 million. It’s currently above $90 million but down to $1400 a print and almost out of the theaters — it’s be a push to $100 million.
Iron Man will make $2.2 million by Sunday night.
Kitt Kittredge dropped 68% Friday-to-Friday in its 2nd platform week (i.e., five theatres), and will experience a 54% drop for the weekend. That obviously suggests big trouble when it goes into national release mode.

35 thoughts on “Big Saturday Numbers

  1. ScottMendelson on said:

    For what it’s worth, The Happening has already made $60 million overseas, so when all is said and done, it’ll be a solid moneymaker (it only cost $60 million so it’ll be break-even by tomorrow).

  2. Kid-aimed movies tend to do great weekday business during the summer, so Panda will definitely get to 200. Hell, even if it didn’t have weekday sales on its side — $10-12 million this weekend means it’s got at least another $20 million.
    It’s too bad that Sandler’s lowest grosses tend to come from his most interesting films, be they the movies he makes for other directors (Punch-Drunk Love, Reign Over Me, Spanglish; the latter two aren’t great movies by any stretch of the imagination, but Sandler is very good in both), or his own projects’ occasional foray into strangeness (Zohan and Little Nicky are both wildly hit and miss, but much more inventive than the likes of Click, Longest Yard, etc). Then again, his consistency in getting comedies to $100 million is, at the moment, unparalleled.
    Wall-E sold out a Thursday-midnight show in Times Square this week. Granted, lots of stuff sells out in NYC, but still, impressive for a G-rated movie. I’m trying to figure out whether it’s the best movie of the year so far, or the second best after David Gordon Green’s Snow Angels.

  3. This is only surprising to those who forgot that this is the first true weekend of summer: everyone is now out of school.
    Usually, one comments that “boy, are kids lucky today because…” but at least we were done with school before May was over.

  4. I saw Wall-E yesterday and I can’t imagine how anyone would be bored. It’s amazing. See it in digital projection if you can.

  5. I’d be curious to know what kind of movies the woman who was “bored” by WALL*E finds exciting? Was she was one of the people who had an orgasm when she saw Sarah Jessica Parker’s walk-in closet in SEX AND THE CITY? Or one of the drunken bimbos who screeched with laughter during the MADE OF HONOR and LOVE GURU screenings? To each his (or her) own, I guess, but the audience I saw WALL*E with seemed pretty much spellbound from start to finish and they applauded vigorously at the end.

  6. “I’m trying to figure out whether it’s the best movie of the year so far, or the second best after David Gordon Green’s Snow Angels.”
    And how does one do this? Meditation? A massage…some incense burning? Bong hits and listening to “Spirit of Eden” and “Kid A” back to back and then a run around Central Park?
    “Usually, one comments that “boy, are kids lucky today because…” but at least we were done with school before May was over.”
    In the 70s my school year ended the around June 20.

  7. I’d be curious to know what kind of movies the woman who was “bored” by WALL*E finds exciting?
    She was thinking about what she was going to wear tomorrow.

  8. “In the 70s my school year ended the around June 20.”
    Thats for you Yankee boys who, if memory serves, went back to school after us Southern boys in the fall.
    However, these days not only do the lads back home go back before Labor Day, they are still at it into June now.

  9. “And how does one do this? Meditation? A massage…some incense burning? Bong hits and listening to “Spirit of Eden” and “Kid A” back to back and then a run around Central Park?”
    I don’t know, I guess I usually just think it over. I wasn’t aware that thinking it over made me some kind of douche-y navel-gazer. I’m also not sure of the Talk Talk/Radiohead connection.
    But if you were offering a massage while we listen to Kid A, sure, I’ll take it.

  10. I just got back from Wall E. I held my breath and prayed the little ones wouldn’t act like depraved monkeys, and I guess something clicked for them because the annoying factor was almost zero. No one seemed overly squirmy or upset. I’ll count my blessings.
    I guess it didn’t hurt that it was a gorgeous movie with adorable protagonists. Pixar manages to remain the about only people in Hollywood who can not only meld the sophisticated and fun, but also sell it to a cheeseburger loving public.
    Now we have to worry about them getting sequel happy. Never a good sign. How about we cancel “Cars 2″ and give something else a try.

  11. “Kung Fu Panda got hit by WALL*E, will do $11.7 million by Sunday night. The cume is $179.3 million, but it’s doing $3 thousand a print now and it may not make the $200 millon mark”
    It’ll make the $200 million mark alright, ending up around $230-240 million.
    It’ll be at $200 million by the end of July 4th weekend

  12. That Wanted number, for me at least, is the most shocking box office result of the year. At the very least, it might cause studios to hesitate a little less at releasing R-rated summer popcorn films.

  13. I’ll have to take a pass Jesse. I’m about to enter a monastery for a month so I can figure out what movie I hated more, A MIGHTY WIND or BEST IN SHOW.

  14. “Indy 4 will do $4.984,000 this weekend for a cume of $299,890,000 — $110 thousand away from $300 million mark.”
    Iron Man days to $300 mil – 48
    Indy days to $300 mil – 39/40
    That’s faster than ‘Titanic’.

  15. For what it’s worth, The Happening has already made $60 million overseas, so when all is said and done, it’ll be a solid moneymaker (it only cost $60 million so it’ll be break-even by tomorrow).

  16. Scott: It’s one thing for “The Happening” to be profitable. It’s another for it to be a hit.
    Richardson: Of course, Indy 4 dropped out of theaters faster than Titanic, too…

  17. These days, I’d contend, anything that is genuinely profitable is a hit. Yes, serious damage has been done to M. Night Shyamalan’s reputation, but remember now that it will make money so you can roll your eyes at those who call it a flop in a few months or years.

  18. Wall-E is amazing, but it’s not necessarilly a film for young children. My 5 year old granddaughter got bored, while my 4 year old grandson seemed to like it. I think it’ll go over the heads of the younger kids. Pixar continues to raise the bar for animation. There are some absolutely stunning scenes. I can’t wait to see what they do with John Carter (Hoping they make it PG-13 at the very least). We saw it at an 11:15 AM showing and there were less than 12 people in the audience, but who goes to movies at the crack of dawn?

  19. Richardson made the point that the new Indy movie made it to 300 million faster than Iron Man. But really.. how many people 6 months ago even thought we would be talking about this. You have to give some credit to Iron Man. You take a second tier Marvel hero that many people had never heard of…plus an excellent actor( Downey.). who has never had a big hit and you equal huge movie. Indy had the whole world waiting for it. It was a very sure fire block buster. Sure it made it quicker to that huge level.. but you know at the end of the year when everyone lists their top ten of the year..I bet Iron Man will make more lists than Indy. Mark my words.

  20. Just remember, the fact that Iron Man and Indy 4 are so close is more about Iron Man then about Indy 4. Indy 4 did pretty much what it was expecting to do, and it will close out at $315 million. To put that in perspective, that is more than Star Wars Episode II, more than Pirates 1 and 3, and about what the first and highest grossing Harry Potter film did. No one was expecting Phantom Menace numbers and it is already Spielberg’s third-highest grossing film, domestically, ever. Regardless of the film’s quality, and I rather liked it, it is a huge domestic and international smash. Iron Man just shocked everyone by making about as much. Again, a point for Iron Man is not a demerit for Indiana Jones.

  21. These days, I’d contend, anything that is genuinely profitable is a hit. Yes, serious damage has been done to M. Night Shyamalan’s reputation, but remember now that it will make money so you can roll your eyes at those who call it a flop in a few months or years.

  22. Jeff,
    Have you read Mick LaSalle’s review of “Wanted” at the San Francisco Chronicle? He hits the nail on the head:
    “How powerless — how threatened, how desperate, how beat up, how angry, how precarious, how hungry for success and in despair of ever achieving it — do people have to be to invest emotionally in the story of a nobody who becomes a murderer? I’d say, “A lot,” and that the sound of cheering you’ll hear tonight in the multiplex is not good news.”

  23. Scott: “Indy 4 did pretty much what it was expecting to do, and it will close out at $315 million. To put that in perspective, that is more than Star Wars Episode II, more than Pirates 1 and 3, and about what the first and highest grossing Harry Potter film did.”
    Um, I’m checking Box Office Mojo, and Clones made at least $400 million; Pirates 1 made at least $500 million; Pirates 3 snagged $550 million; Harry Potter 1 got $800 million; and while I’m too lazy to compare it to the rest, the other Harry Potter flicks average $700 million.
    John: \”How powerless — how threatened, how desperate, how beat up, how angry, how precarious, how hungry for success and in despair of ever achieving it — do people have to be to invest emotionally in the story of a nobody who becomes a murderer? I’d say, “A lot,” and that the sound of cheering you’ll hear tonight in the multiplex is not good news.”
    Strange that no one seemed to find that a problem with that idea in Kill Bill.

  24. Just remember, the fact that Iron Man and Indy 4 are so close is more about Iron Man then about Indy 4. Indy 4 did pretty much what it was expecting to do, and it will close out at $315 million. To put that in perspective, that is more than Star Wars Episode II, more than Pirates 1 and 3, and about what the first and highest grossing Harry Potter film did. No one was expecting Phantom Menace numbers and it is already Spielberg’s third-highest grossing film, domestically, ever. Regardless of the film’s quality, and I rather liked it, it is a huge domestic and international smash. Iron Man just shocked everyone by making about as much. Again, a point for Iron Man is not a demerit for Indiana Jones.

  25. “Um, I’m checking Box Office Mojo, and Clones made at least $400 million; Pirates 1 made at least $500 million; Pirates 3 snagged $550 million; Harry Potter 1 got $800 million; and while I’m too lazy to compare it to the rest, the other Harry Potter flicks average $700 million.”
    You’re being willfully dense this time, aren’t you?

  26. DZ, I have no clue where you pulled those figures. Keep in mind the US domestic number is usually what we use to keep score. Clones did 310, the first Pirates 305 (according to box office mojo). Either way you slice it, Indy beat your projection of 180 domestic in about 6 days.

  27. “More importantly, this is the first Indy film which needed the foreign box office to be considered a hit.”
    That’s silly. 300 million is a hit. Less than 50 films have ever gotten there, it’s rare air. 200 maybe you’d have a point, King Kong and Superman are 200 million dollar dissapointments. But 300 million, cigars are being lit. Sorry.

  28. On Friday ‘Wanted’ made more per screen than ‘Wall-E’ . Of course ‘Wall-E’ sold more thickets due to the discounted children admission prices. But I heard a lot of kids 12 and under were buying tickets for ‘Wall-E’ and sneaking into ‘Wanted’.
    Therefore proving DZ’s theory that the Indiana Jones movie is a flop.

  29. MDOC: If I’m going to go by the U.S. domestic number, than Indy 4 lost even more, since it cost a helluva lot more. And King Kong and Superman needed international sales to break even, too.

  30. Hulk will make more than $10 million you are thinking. It made $9 mil+ this weekend. This is summer. Weekdays mean at least another $20-$25 mil are guaranteed.

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