Comfort Zones

The map on the Yahoo Political Dashboard has the most accessible state-by-state poll numbers, and I’m pleased, naturally, with the electoral vote projections favoring Obama over McCain, 278 to 227. But I’ve come to expect greater comfort and assurance from the guys at They have Ohio and Virginia as lean Obama states, and an electoral vote projection of 329 to 208. Why the discrepancy? Split the two and Obama is projected to win just over 300 to McCain’s 217.

  • Jack Price

    For a third opinion:

  • Jack Price

    My bad. Change that to

  • jc is good, but also check
    They have people betting real money on things like elections (and the price of gas). Because it’s a real market, it tends to be pretty accurate, although it also fluctuates a lot like real markets. For the last two weeks though, it’s been a steady uptick for Obama.

  • High Chaparral

    Chicken and egg, jc – the intrade market is fluctuating due to the information from the polls.

  • moviesquad

    Ah… I can’t wait for the Pelosi presidency by proxy.

  • mitchtaylor

    I just can’t believe how Blue CO is turning.

  • The main difference is that yahoo and electoralvote are more conservative on flipping states for one candidate or the other. So Nevada, Ohio, and Florida are toss ups (or slightly for McCain); although definitely trending towards Obama.

  • Jay T.

    If Ohio actually votes for another Republican, then they deserve what will continue to happen to their local economy.

  • Midwest Doug

    Everything old is new again. The Yahoo! dashboard uses info from, which you touted (justifiably so) in 2004. Both realclearpolitics and fivethirtyeight use models to predict vote totals based on polling. The fivethirtyeight model is more sophisticated, giving more weights to polls that have done well in the past, as well as to those polls that produce more consistent results. I’m slightly concerned that fivethirtyeight puts too much emphasis on youth vote and turnout, but I’ll be happy to be pleasantly surprised.

  • televisiontears

    Most polls favor Obama, and that’s encouraging, but five weeks is a political eternity. As ludicrous as it sounds, there are still folks out there who, for whatever god-forsaken reason, haven’t made up their minds yet.
    Hopefully the category-5 Hurricane Sarah that’s expected to hit landfall on Thursday will put an end to that. I can’t wait. It’ll be the must-see comedy of the fall season.

  • alan

    I recently started a new job in Tennessee that’s within commuting distance from my current home in Virginia (45 minutes), but I’m planning a move to TN so that I’ll be much closer to work. However, I’ve decided to delay my actual move by a couple of weeks just so I can still vote for Obama in VA. Now that’s dedication, or something.

  • iamwhoiam

    Way too soon to celebrate.

  • DarthCorleone

    alan>> I applaud you, sir.

  • Bob Roberts

    For mitchtaylor.
    CO turning blue has been a slow steady process. The state used to be split up with 47-48% of the population in Denver/Boulder/Ski Towns. They voted blue for the most part and lost because the rest of the state was VERY conservative (Co Springs was the 2nd most conservative city in the US being Salt Lake City) and very active…Remember Amendment 2?
    Now with the military reduction in Co Springs, smaller towns losing population and the expansion of communities around Denver/Boulder the political pendulum has swung the other way. The Gov. is the first Dem Gov in quite a while.
    I lived there on/off for 13 years so I can see the direct effect of tech/growth on a political landscape. I wonder if there are any other states like that.

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