$200 Million or Better?

I wrote down the weekend projections on a yellow pad as they were told to me over the phone, but then the banshees of the Fifth Dimension flew in and took the pad away. But I remember one thing clearly. Twilight is the #1 ass-kicker of the Thanksgiving holiday with about $37.5 million expected for the upcoming 3-day weekend and $55 million projected for the entire five days.

  • Deathtongue_Groupie

    So, you are backing from earlier agreement that it would only get to around $150M – in other words, yet another box office projection you were wildly off the mark of.

    It went from $4.5 Monday to $6M Tuesday – what does that tell you? As several of us had already said, $200M was ALWAYS the floor, but no one can do anything but pull numbers out their ass until the 3rd weekend. Thanksgiving is going to make attrition impossible to predict and patterns for girls are notoriously topsy-turvey to begin with.

    Even if I didn’t have a daughter, just the happenstance of overhearing 4 teens at the library talking about it confirmed this is the first film to probably finally re-create the Holy Grail of studios when it comes to “chick flicks”: the Titanic repeat viewing phenomena.

  • bachelorcool

    “but then the banshees of the Fifth Dimension flew in and took the pad away.”

    As in, completely vanished after using it a few seconds before?

    Clearly a global phenomenon and not one restricted to neurotics such as myself in Wales.

  • MikeSchaeferSF

    That is seriously depressing.

    I just came from seeing Bolt, which is flat-out wonderful — easily the best non-Pixar Disney ‘toon since the ’90s. Beautifully done on a technical level, terrific voice-work, clever writing. The whole package. And if ‘tween girls are going to see Twilight for a 3rd or 4th time instead of seeing Bolt once… well just shoot me now.

  • D.Z.

    Deathtongue: Twilight didn’t re-create anything. It’s just another fantasy series which had a rabid fan-base. I guarantee that experts will change their tune when Hollywood comes out with the female teen answer to Eragon and Narnia.

    Mike: Don’t blame the girls. Blame Di$ney’s marketing.

  • Deathtongue_Groupie

    Rabid fan bases die off the first weekend.

    To say anything about Twilight‘s potential box office at this point or any trends that may benefit it with any sort of finality – well, you might as well put on a dunce cap because you’ve already announced to the world you’ve earned it.

    “It’s better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.”

    Words to live by, D.Z., words to live by.

    MikeSchaeferSF – “Tweener girls” get what, 2 seriously promoted major films a year and boys of all ages get like 30. You would begrudge them even this??? Should we expect you back next month to bemoan how much Christians and their holiday is “oppressed” in this country?

  • Filmsnob

    How is it doing worldwide?

  • GKLondon

    Who gives a rat’s ass about all this box office bullshit? The only time I give a shit is when the box office for a film has an effect on the career of a specific filmmaker as a result. If a Fincher movie made these numbers in it’s FIRST weekend, let alone it’s second, I’d take note. If a Ratner directed $350 Mil Pirates of the Caribbean 4 made $37.5 Million in it’s entire run, I’d pay attention.

  • GKLondon

    Oh, and Jeff, how about nixing the Oscar balloon? And a moratorium on talking about box office grosses, ESPECIALLY ‘projected grosses’, you sound like Ari Gold.

    Keep banging the drum about Che, no one else seems to be. I’m dying to see it as a result, even in it’s spliced form over here in London. It’s funny though, your pet project last year was Zodiac, and now Fincher’s new, supposed home-run film is being subsumed by this year’s pet project, Che.

    And ‘Austrailia’, go fuck yourself!

    The film, not the continent.

  • EDouglas

    Whoever gave you the numbers should seriously give up any sort of box office prognostication or projections, because they obviously do not understand how movies like Twilight, which are geared just to one demographic (young women) would behave over the Thanksgiving weekend. Look at Rent as an example because that’s probably the closest… Twilight will still end up #1 but it will probably be closer to $45 -48 million tops… it will tail off greatly over the weekend in favor of more family/holiday friendly fare like Bolt and Four Christmases.

  • MikeSchaeferSF

    Deathtongue: I don’t begrudge ‘tween girls anything; but giving them a rare “majorfilm” doesn’t mean they have to see it 5 times and ignore everything else in the marketplace. Not sure how that makes me Bill O’Reilly. WTF?

  • Deathtongue_Groupie

    MikeSchaeferSF – its pretty simple, unless you were on here last spring bitching about all those ‘tweener boys going to see Iron Man five times instead of or Son of Rambow (and quick search didn’t find any) then WTF does it matter to you that they get their popcorn movie now and then? Holy shit, bro, ANYTHING that gets them into the theater at that age is a plus in my book.

    GKLondon – for you it’s even simpler, when the post is clearly about box office then don’t fucking read it. Problem solved. It’s not like it started out “The subtext of any film mixing young romance with the lure of vampirism… blah, blah, blah” and then suddenly swerved into projection talk.

  • D.Z.
  • GKLondon

    You’re right Deathtongue_groupie, I guess I should just stop reading about the weekend numbers.

    And I guess poor old Roger Ebert should shut up about the death of proper film journalism and get used to thirsting for every morsel about whatever celebrity is being deified at the moment. The obsession with grosses is the paparazzi section of film related journalism. By your rationale, anyone with a problem WITH ANYTHING should just avoid whatever they see fault in. Using your stunningly brave and adventurous logic, you shouldn’t have even replied to my post.

    Don’t like posts where people complain? DON’T READ EM. People complaining in anonymity is what the Internet is for.

    My name is Gareth Keogh, I’m a documentary filmmaker from Dublin Ireland, and I live in London. Now, can’t we all just get along….

  • http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com JckNapier2

    I wrote an essay a couple months ago specifically dealing with how male critics reacted to the female escapism of Sex & The City, as opposed to male escapism like Iron Man (and the core differences between the two). Deathtongue and MikeSchafer SFD might find it worth a glance.

    http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com/2008/09/sex-and-city-movie-and-difference.html

    Oh, and Mike, if you liked Bolt, I highly reccomend checking out Meet The Robinsons. I may be the only one who thinks so, but I thought it was the best movie fo 2007.

  • Deathtongue_Groupie

    GKLondon – oh, I see the problem now. It’s not the idea is too simple, its that YOU are.

    Apparently, you one of those folks who can’t hold what they see as contradictory thoughts in their head at the same time. And because someone like yourself can’t come to website and deal with various aspects of film being discussed without it somehow lessening the more serious ones, then the less serious just have to go.

    I think the Academy Awards are pretty much worthless now, but I don’t spend the entire awards season bitching in all those related threads (well, maybe one rant a year or so). Not my thing, so I stay out.

    I won’t even get into how laughably absurd your attempt to compare box office reporting with Ebert’s lament about film journalism. Especially considering that while Ebert has been a great pop film reviewer, he has never been a serious hard nosed industry journalist or critic.

    But the biggest laugh of this is that you trying to claim some sort of superior high road on THIS particular site. Not sure if it escaped your attention, this isn’t exactly Cahiers du cinéma or even Salon here.

    JckNapier2 – interesting, but I would have been interested in more examples of male critics’ reactions. Especially against the more mainstream female ones. Or did the female ones skewer the film as well? A quick check found that Manohla Dargis did not even give the film a pass as Carrie Ricky did.

  • http://moviemaniac2002 moviemaniac2002

    Frightening as it may seem, with “Twilight” you’re witnessing a demographic that’s been hibernating since “Titanic”….girls and young women who are prepared to attend the film every weekend until the prints finally melt inside the projectors.
    But there’s a weird factor in here that I never saw at the few ‘Titanic’ viewings that I sat through……..
    Dragged by my 22 year old daughter to a recent “Twilight” show.. I watched a packed house of ‘tween and teen girls simultaneously mock the film while cheering and swooning at the same time…..like watching a massive “Mystery Science Theatre 3000″ episode in which the
    deriders actually, deep down, loved the trash they were trashing.
    So the question is…will this “I am so way hipper than this movie” attitude among the fangirls begin to cut down the amount of repeat viewiings. Or will they just keep on buying tickets, turning the movie into a cross between
    “Titanic” and “Rocky Horror” ?

  • D.Z.

    Napier: I hate Transformers and the average chick flick with equal aplomb. But I think the reason male-oriented titles get more respect is that female-oriented films tend to be niche and boring. [Sort of why general audiences don't take Tyler Perry films seriously, either, even when they make bank, too.] Twilight’s done a better-than-usual job of crossing over, but it’s still a gimmick in the end, not a phenomenon. And http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-11-27&p=.htm suggests it’s already losing steam. Even if I’m wrong, this second week will probably be its peak, since even that last Batman flick couldn’t beat Titanic; and it had a broader audience.

    moviemaniac: The girls who trashed Twilight at your screening might be the non-fans who are only in it for the male-bait.

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