Predictions?
“With nearly 2,000 shows already sold out, Summit Entertainment’s teen vampire romance Twilight is looking more like a studio blockbuster than some of the blockbusters,” reports Variety‘s Pamela McLintock. “[The film] has whipped up such a frenzy among tween and teenage girls that advance ticket sales are the biggest for any film since The Dark Knight. How high Twilight, directed by Catherine Hardwicke, opens this weekend depends on whether the movie leapfrogs beyond its target demo. On the strength of girls and moms alone, Twilight could open in the $45 million-to-$60 million range. Some say it could go higher.”
I’m guessing $75-$80 million.
Friday numbers will be huge because it will be one of those deals where the overwhelming majority of TWILIGHT fans will see it opening day/midnight and semi-fans and curious movie-goers will see it the rest of the weekend.
Or, repeat viewings will start immediately…
I am pro TWILIGHT because a rising tide lifts all boats. Kellan Lutz, for example, is in DEEP WINTER coming out in late January. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR6ntGJllNc It will be interesting to watch if all this mania moves the dial. Mostly Summit is being lifted in Herculean ways.
It’s going to be huge. Drop-off will be less than usual, I think, owing to the Thanksgiving holiday next week. Once word of mouth gets around that it’s not half bad, the curious who hadn’t planned to see it are more likely to check it out.
Prepare for the oncoming glut of moody teen vampire movies about to be greenlit.
I’ll take the over.
as long Robert Pattinson and Kristen get more media attention I will be fine, new blood and fresh faces are always welcome in Hollywood. God knows I cant stand Jessica Alba and Lindsay Lohan anymore
excuse me while i go barf.
$70 mil is the floor. And, as Howlingman predicts, it will stay strong through the Thanksgiving holidays. $150 mil by the beginning of December sounds about right.
Don’t forget, a lot of Twilight’s audience would have been siphoned off by Harry Potter, but when HP got moved, that left just Twilight for that demo.
I think Bolt is also going to be huge, but not Twilight huge.
Our 13 year-old sitter can’t sit for us tomorrow because she absolutley has to see this movie opening day.
Isn’t this the same demographic that made Titanic so huge?
You’re excused, DeafBrownTrashPunk.
And yeah, it’ll do well. Summit is about to become the next Lion’s Gate.
Last week, I was thinking $55-60M Sex and the City opening numbers.
Now, I’m saying $65-70M. I’m not willing to go over 70. Perhaps I’m remaining ignorant on just how big the fanbase actually is.
Sean E, I’ll give you a ‘sort of’ yes. TITANIC did feed off of this demographic, but it was a movie spectacle that appealed to a lot of different people.
TWILIGHT’s demo is a little more limited…the older crowds won’t really eat it up as much as TITANIC…
By the way — didn’t the latest book BREAKING DAWN get absolutely ripped apart by critics and even by fans?
Plus, Summit is only distributing to 3200 screens…
“Plus, Summit is only distributing to 3200 screens.”
Which means there’ll be a huge “sold out” factor this weekend, which will only prolong its success, until more prints are struck and more screens are opened, should it go stupid huge.
And you’re right, Chase, re: TITANIC — it was an enormous hit because it crossed every demographic, not just the teenage girls.
I’d say $64M is the floor.
Even Sony apparently didn’t have any idea of the size of this juggernaut or they would have booked more screens or at least faced the reality that the word-of-mouth Quantum of Solace is going to take an axe to the 2nd weekend by shifting screens over. They are going to rue that 3200 on Sunday when it hits them they could have had the first chick-flick $100M opener.
The awareness level of this film among the XX chromosome set is freakishly huge. Film sites have really blown a chance to pull in more female eyeballs by running perfunctorily at best coverage when they should have treated it like any “fan boy” property.
Word to the wise, single younger straight men: find a date for this movie, because if ever a film is going to get you laid in your generation, Twilight is the one. Word to the rest: don’t even think of trying to anything else with your S.O. unless you don’t value your balls too highly.
Final Prediction from DG: $89.6M
Brain fart: knew it was Summit, but for some reason Sony popped into my head thinking about where the extra screens would come from.
“Film sites have really blown a chance to pull in more female eyeballs by running perfunctorily at best coverage when they should have treated it like any “fan boy” property. ”
The film sites you don’t mention by name (but are pretty obvious) have a vitriolic hatred for this movie, its fans, everything to do with it. Maybe its because it treads on the films they normally have cornered the market in covering, but isn’t directed at them or their audience. If it breaks as huge as everyone is saying, they’re going to look pretty fucking stupid.
As to mainstream movie sites, EW.com has been pretty much “all Twilight, all the time” for the past two weeks. They’ve had at least three Twilight covers I can recall and they’re last one was a “three cover collector’s set.”
And, yes, they’re going to run into a big problem when it comes time to make the 4th movie. I understand even the die-hard fans hated the book.
I don’t see why those sites knocking it would feel stupid if it’s a huge hit. I think most of them already know it’ll be huge. Their vitriol is aimed at the shrieking nature of the fanbase.
Sigh.
FINE!!!! Maybe I will read the Twilight books. I am going to Saudi Arabia on Friday so I’ll be gone for almost 4 weeks (which means you guys won’t see me commenting here anymore until mid-December).
I need something to read on my flight anyway.
grrr
I’m with Rich on his numbers – over $70 million definately. This one is gonna be a repeater by many many teen girls, including my kiddle and her friends, so the numbers will end up astronomical.
I don’t care how much money this crap makes. I just want it to go away. Sadly, I won’t be getting my wish any time soon.
I wil go see Quantum again after I check out Happy-Go-Lucky and Synechdoche, NY.
If I took my girlfriend to this movie, she’d never let me hear the end of it. Twilight flat-out enrages her, both for its unwarrented success (as a book) and its troubling anti-feminist leanings. That said, if I got it from Netflix, she’d totally be down for viewing/mocking it.
I’m trying to get her to see Let the Right One In with me as a protest.
$70+ million? Oh c’mon you peeps can’t be serious…
I like the new CHE ads…
Joel;
your girlfriend is right. I think TWILIGHT is so ant-feminist, from what i’ve gathered in reading articles about the books.
Yeah, go see LET THE RIGHT ONE IN… I want to see that, too…. so good….
*anti-feminist
sorry for my bad typo!!!
I wish Let the Right One In would open in CT.
Take the train to the Angelika, actionman. It’s totally worth the trip.
Irony Example of the Day:
actionman: “I don’t care how much money this crap makes… I wil go see Quantum again “
Or, everyone’s idea of crap is entirely subjective.
The final scene of LET THE RIGHT ONE IN still haunts me in my dreams. What an achievement this film is.
Howlingman – good to see I’m not the only one who picked up on this. Compare and contrast this to the coverage of Iron Man last spring, which probably had a comparable fan base (yeah, I know it’s older, but c’mon its was always a down ticket Marvel property, almost cultish).
Wonder if Twilight will be as mediocre as well…
What was wrong with Quantum, Deathtongue? It was a great action flick.
Howlingman…I will be in the city in a few weeks…hopefully Let the Right One In is still playing.
I just about punched something when I saw that pic. I’ve got nothing against Twilight or anyone involved with it. Or any of the fans for that matter. But it’s only this week where I’ve looked at any press for this thing, and every time Robert Pattinson shows up, HE’S RUNNING HIS FUCKING FINGERS THROUGH HIS GODDAMN HAIR!!! It’s driving me absolutely batshit.
It’s not even that I think that Pattinson has vanity issues. It’s like when a coworker won’t stop saying “seriously” in conversations, or your roommate can’t stop whistling while cooking. It’s nothing against them, it’s just the thing they do that makes you want to put their head through a freaking concrete wall.
Not a good review in USA Today. But at this point, how much does it matter? Twilight has the MO, and I can see $75 million. I will avoid the local cineplex for the next few days.
television tears: “It is impossible to say how first the idea entered my brain, but, once conceived, it haunted me day and night. Object there was none. Passion there was none. I loved the old man. He had never wronged me. He had never given me insult. For his gold I had no desire. I think it was his eye! Yes, it was this!”
Pattinson hasn’t vanity issues… per se. (Let’s see who get’s the reference first
“I think I would make a really good vampire if you’d just give me the opportunity.”
This Pattinson kid is the hottest thing in the business right now. My understanding is that he is the number one reason all the giggly girls are so bent out of shape over this movie. Obviously, the books are quite popular too. But I haven’t heard this much buzz about a pretty boy actor since Leo in 98. He’ll be working with Spielberg within the next two years, trust me.
“What was wrong with Quantum, Deathtongue? It was a great action flick.”
No, it wasn’t.
This movie will be very frontloaded. But I can see around $55-$60 OW. For it to have a chance at $80+ it needed to appeal to teenage boys as well.
Quantum was very very average.
So says you.
A very, very average action movie would be something like XXX or Eraser.
Quantum had style, smarts, and rock-solid performances. I just don’t get how some people could walk away from a film like this and not be pleased. Whatever.
Where does Bolt come in?
Sean: The demo which made Titanic huge consisted of women in the 18-25 range who could stand Celine Dion, and the guys who dated them anyway. “Tween” girls were the ones who got more focus, since they were the ones who helped with the WOM.
Deathtongue: “Film sites have really blown a chance to pull in more female eyeballs by running perfunctorily at best coverage when they should have treated it like any “fan boy” property.”
Well, to be fair, no one gave a damn about Serenity, either, so…
“Word to the wise, single younger straight men: find a date for this movie, because if ever a film is going to get you laid in your generation, Twilight is the one.”
You mean young straight men under 18, since no adult woman who isn’t at least 2.5-3 times that age will see it.
“Compare and contrast this to the coverage of Iron Man last spring, which probably had a comparable fan base (yeah, I know it’s older, but c’mon its was always a down ticket Marvel property, almost cultish).”
Iron Man had two stars making comebacks and a budget. Twilight is another CW high school show, but with vampires.
Howlingman: “The film sites you don’t mention by name (but are pretty obvious) have a vitriolic hatred for this movie, its fans, everything to do with it. Maybe its because it treads on the films they normally have cornered the market in covering, but isn’t directed at them or their audience.”
I think it’s because it looks low-budget and lame. And that’s not entirely fair assessment, as there are a lot of straight male “Lost Boys” fans, and those actors were supposed to be total chick magnets.
Dzayson: “But I haven’t heard this much buzz about a pretty boy actor since Leo in 98. He’ll be working with Spielberg within the next two years, trust me.”
They probably said the same thing about Van Der Beek once, too.
really good post
Thank you
Best regards!
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