Silver Predicts Henson
Nate Silver, the numbers-and-poll-crunching whiz kid whose accurate primary and general election predictions were posted last year on fivethirtyeight.com and won him immense respect, has delivered an analysis of the Oscar contenders and delivered one big surprise -- i.e., that Benjamin Button's Taraji P. Henson will win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. No way. Bank on Penelope Cruz.
Silver claims there's a 71.1% likelihood that Mickey Rourke will win the Best Actor Oscar. The late Heath Ledger has an 85.8% chance of winning the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. (Do ya think so?) Kate Winslet, he says, is a 67.6% favorite over Meryl Streep, who only tallies a 32.4% likelihood. (A voice tells me she might win anyway.)
Best Director contender Danny Boyle, the auteur of Slumdog Millionaire, has a 99.7% chance of winning, and Slumdog Millionaire itself is 99% favored to win Best Picture.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 16, 2009 at 2:59 PM
comment #1
Colin
says ...
Why Cruz is receiving all this Oscar talk is beyond me. She has never been a good actress and Vicky Christina Barcelona might be Allen's worst film.
Posted by Colin
at February 16, 2009 3:16 PM
comment #2
The InSneider
says ...
Poor Nate Silver. Doesn't he know that Henson has 0% shot at winning the gold? In fact, of the 20 actors nominated, I'd say she's #20. Jenkins and Jolie have better chances to win than her. How she got in over DeWitt is a stunning example of the Academy's ignorance.
Posted by The InSneider
at February 16, 2009 3:31 PM
comment #3
Chicago48
says ...
IF she wins it will be for Talk to Me and Hustle and Flow.
Posted by Chicago48
at February 16, 2009 3:46 PM
comment #4
Sabina E
says ...
Colin, I agree... Cruz is overrated.
Posted by Sabina E
at February 16, 2009 3:49 PM
comment #5
LeroyBrown
says ...
What are his numbers based on?
Posted by LeroyBrown
at February 16, 2009 3:56 PM
comment #6
Midwest Doug
says ...
From the article: It involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) .
The obvious thing missing is "polling" data, though that's hard to come by with Oscars. So the other awards (SAG, etc.) become proxies. My guess is the Henson prediction is due to the box office success for Benjamin Button vs. Vicky Christina. I'll still pick Cruz for my pool. But I've learned not to doubt Silver's analytics.
Posted by Midwest Doug
at February 16, 2009 5:14 PM
comment #7
ROTC
says ...
I don't think Silver's prediction is as far off the mark as many insiders would like to believe. First, I agree that Cruz's odds for a very good (but no better than that) performance in an utterly forgettable film have been over-hyped. Second, Doubt's Davis and Adams may end up canceling each other out. Third, I think Tomei's tits have unfortunately gotten more buzz than her actual performance. Which leaves Hensen, who IMO was the best, most grounded thing about top nominee Benjamin Button, and who would certainly get my vote in this category.
Posted by ROTC
at February 16, 2009 5:26 PM
comment #8
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
Hmmm...Hensen? That could actually happen, actually, for many of the reasons ROTC states (and also because Tomei -- boobs notwithstanding -- already has her Oscar).
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at February 16, 2009 6:44 PM
comment #9
Rod32303
says ...
FINALLY someone talking about Hensen, who gave the most moving performance for me IN Benjamin Button. Many of us who are fans have seen her in so many films - the brothers and sisters have known her great work in many films that the masses haven't seen (and, truthfully, needed to be avoided) - Not only Hustle and Flow and Talk to Me, but The Family That Preys, Love and Basketball, Something New, Save the Last Dance...she shines a lot.
It probably still won't go to her, but she's in the game now.
Posted by Rod32303
at February 16, 2009 9:52 PM