Wolvie Peeks Through
It’s my fault that Manhattan-based 20th Century Fox publicists didn’t invite me to the two Wolverine critic screenings happening today. I haven’t been aggressive enough about telling everyone I’m really and truly a Manhattanite. The first screening happened at 10 or 10:30 am; the next starts at 2 pm. I spoke to a critic who attended this morning’s showing and his initial response was (a) there’s too much Hugh Jackman and (b) it’s not as good as any of the three X-Men films (i.e., obviously including Brett Ratner‘s version).
A credible Australian critic wrote yesterday to say he’d “caught a screening of it last night here in Sydney and the bad buzz is spot-on. Clunky script, unfocused plotting, cheesy special effects and terrible production values. Nearly everything looks like a set and what doesn’t look like a set looks like CG. I thought it was Daredevil-bad — equal to or worse than X3. And I loved the first two X-Men films, especially the second one.
“Don’t get me started on the character design for Deadpool (the final villain who comes with all the mutants’ strengths and none of their weaknesses). I was really sad to see it turn out this way because I like [director] Gavin Hood, and because I think Hugh Jackman‘s great (i.e., still the best thing about the movie) and of course a lot of Aussies were involved. Anyway, not a fully formed reaction but just thought I’d pass it on.”
Hopefully this will be Rothman’s final nail in the coffin. What an ass, he completely destroyed the X-men franchise.
Too much Hugh Jackman? That’s like saying there’s too much Harrison Ford in the Indy movies.
It’ll still make a ton of money. One obvious thing about the American general public : They have no taste.
What a bummer for Gavin Hood on his first big-budget studio action movie. I still think that Rendition is underrated.
Film was doomed the moment Par inked in May 8th for Star Trek. I keep forgetting the film opens this week, regardless of the trailers.
Even if it’s pure shit, which is what most people are making it out to be, it’ll still open HUGE this weekend (as it’s the 1st big summer movie), but yeah, it’ll probably crumble in the next 2-3 weekends when presumably better product drops. Don’t be surprised to see an $80-90 million 3-day opening.
No way. First the leak and now the SwineFlu scare? This’ll be a huge bomb.
I’m guessing 65% drop on the second weekend.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine – this is the poster child for who gives a fuck. If I were a Harvard Business School grad who produced this, I would be proud because this is the definition of how to milk a franchise so you can lube yourself up and take a roll in all the dough you will take from the chickens you are plucking. As for Gavin Hood – you can add him behind Colin Hanks in terms of rankings in career interests.
Here are some random thoughts though inspired by previous posts and catching up on films b/c having a 22 month old makes getting to the theater these days a lot harder:
Cameron Crowe just doesn’t have any edge and never did but if he is going to do a documentary and return to features, please take a lead from from J. Demme who is back on the board with Rachel Getting Married. While the boho paradise annoyed me and sent my wife into open hatred for the film, no matter what, I couldn’t take my eyes off of the thing. There is a guy rediscovering his meter and craft. Let’s hope he tries to make a trio of films in this style – I’ll be the first to try and rent it on Netflix.
How about a sequel to Say Anything like Any You Say Might Be Used Against You in Court about the divorce of Lloyd and Diane? Sort of like the once terrific Bill Forsyth who ended his career with Gregory’s Two Girls. People shoot their wads, it happens.
Star Trek – that looks terrific and the way to properly exploit a franchise.
Anyone ever seen Kablooey? I did last night. What a strange surprise of a movie – in a good way. Teri Garr is a lot like Kathleen Turner these days (she’s in it).
I’ve lost interest in myself and this thread, but in closing: who gives a fuck about X-men Origins (we should want failure else we might see one featuring Halle Berry)
Mark: I’m guessing they mean that there’s not enough time given to supporting characters.
I think the real issue is whether or not this sucker will be a dud like The Day The Earth Stood Still.
Put a number on it, DZ. What’s the opening weekend gross for ‘Wolverine’?
If the fans hate it, $40 million. If they buy FOX’s spin on it not being a final product, $60-$70 million.
thats not actually a prediction, i looked in the dictionary under “cop-out” and found your post
55-60mill this weekend, the fans won’t care and wont like it and it will drop 60% PLUS second weekend, 165mil final
maybe i’m wrong (tho i kinda doubt it) because i lost a Hamilton on the Rangers/Caps game tonight but I at least have the sack to make an actual prediction and if I am wrong I will man up and admit it
cop-out or not, DJZ’s thoughts are about on the mark. There are too many variables this weekend to make any estimate that I’d put money on. Hell, if an American or two suddenly dies from swine flu in the next 24 hours, that changes things too. Not saying it makes sense, but I;d gather many moviegoers remember everyone’s favorite scene from ‘Outbreak’. So, we have to factor in the bootleg’s effect, with corresponding negative word of mouth, we have to factor in possible panic via alleged flu outbreak, plus the fact that Star Trek is the movie with momentum right now. Plus the fact that the project just doesn’t have the excitement of Iron Man, Spider-Man, or any of the X-Men pictures (it feels like Van Helsing… it’s big because it’s the first film of summer and that’s all). I may be wrong, but I’m thinking $50 million, and that’s even Fox stretching it so that they claim the big 5-0. Not that it won’t stop them from blaming the bootleg and the flu news.
Come what may, Fox now has two perfect excuses if this thing genuinely under performs. And rest assured, every studio in town is waiting on baited breath. If this opens under expectations this weekend, everybody in town panics. Be it fears of piracy or fears of the continuing ‘we’re all gonna die of swine flu’ stories, this could have a real impact on how the rest of the summer unfolds. For the first time in a long time, the opening day of a major movie is big, BIG news for the industry as a whole. I can;t wait to see how it plays out.
Scott: FOX won’t have an excuse for Avatar, though. Hell, I’m still wondering why they think anyone wants to see a Night at the Museum 2. It looks really boring in the trailers.
I think everyone is underestimating Night at the Museum 2. I hated the first one, but (at $251 million) it out grossed every film in the X-Men franchise, the Terminator franchise, and the Ice Age franchise. It’s outgrossed all but three Pixar films (Monsters Inc, The Incredibles, and Finding Nemo). It’s the very definition of family comfort food, the first being served in the summer (one weekend before Up). I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if NatM2 beats Terminator 4 over Memorial Day weekend. For better or worse, it’s going to be one of the big hits of the summer.
I think it’s much too late in the game for anyone to get excited about a Wolverine movie. People would have gone to see it out of something to do, but with Swine Flu burning up the airwaves, people are more likely to stay home this weekend. I’ll be generous and give it a 50 million max opening weekend, but it’ll be gone by the end of the month if not sooner.
Scott: The last one made money, because it was released in the fourth quarter of the year. And we already saw what happened when they tried to turn a winter hit into a summer hit with Narnia 2. T4 is more of a summer kind of flick, and(hopefully) Bale still has some good will from TDK. I might normally agree with you, though, if T4 was still going to be R. But the PG-13 rating does put it on equal footing with NATM2.
To be fair, Prince Caspian opened to a three-day $56 million weekend, which I’m sure WB would be thrilled with for the Fri-Sun portion of Terminator Salvation (T3 made $44 million for 3 days and $73 million for 5 days). I’d love to be wrong, but NatM2 feels like the film that families go to that weekend in masse just because they kinda liked the first one, they know it’s safe for everyone, and it’s just there. We’ll see.
As for Caspian, I think that suffered from the ‘Tomb Raider curse’. IE – they scored a hit film off a movie that no one actually liked, so even though they made a better sequel, moviegoers were reluctant to return (the same fate could befall Angels & Demons, which also no longer has the cachet Christian controversy that so aided the original).
To be fair, I really have no idea what a lot of movies are going to do this summer. We all know that Transformers 2 and Harry Potter 6 will be huge, but other than that, it’s a complete crap shoot. It makes it impossible to write summer preview articles, but it will make for a fun, unpredictable summer at the box office.
“cop-out or not, DJZ’s thoughts are about on the mark. There are too many variables this weekend to make any estimate that I’d put money on.”
Scott — the thing is, DZ is going to continue to say the movie will bomb, and then, when it comes out, continue to say that it did bomb, regardless of the business it actually does. Asking him to put a number on his predictions is a running joke, because he always guesses wrong and then tries to prove that he actually guessed right.
You’re probably right, Gordon. But the situation is still very reminiscent of Batman & Robin. That was also a movie that, removing all negative variables should have opened to about $60 million. The big question was whether the terrible reviews, bad word of mouth, and declarations of war amongst fan boys (including myself at age 17… boy am I embarrassed by some of the childish stuff I wrote that summer) would have an effect on the box office. They apparently did, so a great, but under-expectations debut of $43 million resulted. So yeah, in this case – if the bad stuff actually hurts Wolverine, then $50 million… if it doesn’t then $75 million. I wouldn’t bet on either one, but we’ll see.
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