It’s Over

After Hurt Locker wins with the PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, BFCA, NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, ACE, GIFA, and IPA plus a co-leading nine AMPAS nods including vital ones for directing, acting, screenwriting, and editing, “we can now say with more than a fair degree of certainty that we know which film will win the top Oscar,” writes And The Winner Is columnist Scott Feinberg.

“Sure, arguments can be made for other films (and both studios and pundits are making them), and upsets can happen (you don’t have to remind me). But the fact of the matter is this: the raw data (precursor awards) and anecdotal evidence (conversations with actual voters) have rarely, if ever, given the same indication as clearly and consistently as they have this year: The Hurt Locker will win the 2009 Best Picture Oscar. Believe it — It’s true.”

Notes on Season‘s Pete Hammond half concurs, but he also says “not so fast, Sherlock.”

“The Academy’s new list of 10 best picture nominees, rather than five at BAFTA, plus the unknown effect of the preferential voting system (which BAFTA does not use) make it more difficult to gauge the influence of some of these precursor awards, save for PGA, which used the new Academy system this year. Of course we should remember Locker won a shocker of a win there too.

Plus Mark Boal‘s WGA win “was done without key Oscar nominees Inglourious Basterds and Up (both ruled ineligible by the WGA) as competition, so Boal was a lead pipe cinch to win there. He’s in a much tighter race for the Best Original Screenplay Oscar with Quentin Tarantino. But it should be noted that both Up and Basterds were against him at BAFTA where he had another victory for his script.

“Before either the WGA or BAFTA awards, I spoke to a producer and former studio head who told me he very much understands the psychology of Oscar voting. He predicted Hurt Locker would go all the way at the Oscars and said he voted for Carey Mulligan for Actress. I also keep hearing from others who say they are voting for Avatar, but as the above-noted producer points out, the ‘cumulative’ factor of a series of pre-Oscar wins can be a powerful aphrodesiac for Academy voters.”

The Wrap‘s Steve Pond adds this to the conversation:

Avatar is the reason the Oscar show will see its ratings increase dramatically, and Academy voters know that. Which makes Avatar the film that could possibly, conceivably throw the usual rules out the window and grab a win that hasn’t been indicated at any of the significant precursor awards.

I don’t believe it will. I look at all the other awards and see unmistakable indications that the people who decide these things think that The Hurt Locker is the best picture of the year.

“I think The Hurt Locker will win. I think it deserves to win. And I think that win will be extraordinarily popular within the Kodak Theater in two weeks. But over? Even after the events of the weekend, I can’t go there. Not yet, anyway.”

115 thoughts on “It’s Over

  1. Oddly enough, the more “steam” Locker picks up, the greater the sense I get – speaking only for myself – that THIS is the real “overrated” probably winner this year.

    By that I mean, while it’s a perfectly good low-budget wartime suspense/actioner, it begins to feel like the “hurrah for small movies!!!!” reflex is making people prone to exaggerating it’s larger merits. It’s screenplay is no more (or less) worth writing home about than “Avatar,” it’s infinitely less deep than “Basterds” both on a character level and a “commentary on warfighting” level, and none of the acting stands out like it does in Precious, Up in the Air, etc.

    Oh, but it didn’t cost much and the plebes didn’t take to it, so it MUST be some kind of meaningful, important work. So by all means, let’s hand it the award over and stand back so history can get busy debating whether it was “Avatar” or “Basterds” that will be remembered as having been overlooked.

  2. Oddly enough, the more “steam” Locker picks up, the greater the sense I get – speaking only for myself – that THIS is the real “overrated” probably winner this year.

    By that I mean, while it’s a perfectly good low-budget wartime suspense/actioner, it begins to feel like the “hurrah for small movies!!!!” reflex is making people prone to exaggerating it’s larger merits. It’s screenplay is no more (or less) worth writing home about than “Avatar,” it’s infinitely less deep than “Basterds” both on a character level and a “commentary on warfighting” level, and none of the acting stands out like it does in Precious, Up in the Air, etc.

    Oh, but it didn’t cost much and the plebes didn’t take to it, so it MUST be some kind of meaningful, important work. So by all means, let’s hand it the award over and stand back so history can get busy debating whether it was “Avatar” or “Basterds” that will be remembered as having been overlooked.

  3. Hurt Locker probably deserves it but I never thought back in the summer when I saw it that it would end up being the best film of the year. I thought for sure something else would come out in the winter that would blow us away but that never seemed to happen.

  4. Hurt Locker probably deserves it but I never thought back in the summer when I saw it that it would end up being the best film of the year. I thought for sure something else would come out in the winter that would blow us away but that never seemed to happen.

  5. I have to agree with moviebob (not exactly his love of Avatar). When I first saw it, I thought The Hurt Locker was a good, but not great movie, and a subsequent viewing has not changed that opinion. As has been pointed out, the script contains some bad cliches (like the character and fate of the psychiatrist), and frankly even the much touted bomb diffusing suspense scenes weren’t half as taut and tense for me as say, the scene in No Country For Old Men when Josh Brolin waits for Javier Bardem to come through his hotel room door.

  6. I have to agree with moviebob (not exactly his love of Avatar). When I first saw it, I thought The Hurt Locker was a good, but not great movie, and a subsequent viewing has not changed that opinion. As has been pointed out, the script contains some bad cliches (like the character and fate of the psychiatrist), and frankly even the much touted bomb diffusing suspense scenes weren’t half as taut and tense for me as say, the scene in No Country For Old Men when Josh Brolin waits for Javier Bardem to come through his hotel room door.

  7. that no country for old men comparison REALLY puts THL’s nuts and bolts suspense merits into perspective.

    well spotted rev.

    the sniper sequence was the only setpiece with any serious juice.

  8. that no country for old men comparison REALLY puts THL’s nuts and bolts suspense merits into perspective.

    well spotted rev.

    the sniper sequence was the only setpiece with any serious juice.

  9. Even though I’m pretty sure Avatar wins it, I think it’s pretty cool that there are three movies, all of which people can argue have the merits to win and the reasons they can’t win.

  10. Even though I’m pretty sure Avatar wins it, I think it’s pretty cool that there are three movies, all of which people can argue have the merits to win and the reasons they can’t win.

  11. Hurt Locker is a very well directed film but narratively, it’s all over the place. On a second viewing it tests the patience with some scenes being largely redundant.

    Best Director – Sure, for Near Dark, Point Break and Strange Days alone.

    Best Film-Avatar. Just for reminding us that movies can still be a magical experience.

  12. Hurt Locker is a very well directed film but narratively, it’s all over the place. On a second viewing it tests the patience with some scenes being largely redundant.

    Best Director – Sure, for Near Dark, Point Break and Strange Days alone.

    Best Film-Avatar. Just for reminding us that movies can still be a magical experience.

  13. Agree with others about HURT LOCKER – good but did not blow me away, as it were.

    This will be another year that 5 years from now, almost no one talks about much less watches the films being debated about. The will come on Encore and everyone will just click past them.

  14. Agree with others about HURT LOCKER – good but did not blow me away, as it were.

    This will be another year that 5 years from now, almost no one talks about much less watches the films being debated about. The will come on Encore and everyone will just click past them.

  15. Leave it to the Academy to give a woman the Best Director Oscar and have the woman be a director who is, at her best, a competent action director. Really shows how much they respect women filmmakers.

    Bigelow is a cheesy director. She makes cheesy films. The ending of The Hurt Locker is pure cheese, with Renner walking in slow motion, the shrill, generic hard rock blasting away behind him.

    The Academy is confused. They are a self-insulated little crowd of people who are out of touch with life, and their taste in movies reflects that.

  16. Leave it to the Academy to give a woman the Best Director Oscar and have the woman be a director who is, at her best, a competent action director. Really shows how much they respect women filmmakers.

    Bigelow is a cheesy director. She makes cheesy films. The ending of The Hurt Locker is pure cheese, with Renner walking in slow motion, the shrill, generic hard rock blasting away behind him.

    The Academy is confused. They are a self-insulated little crowd of people who are out of touch with life, and their taste in movies reflects that.

  17. And people keep wondering why the audience for the Academy Awards goes down when they keep wanting to give top awards to movies that the industry loves, but not the country. I watched Hurt Locker with about 10 friends. Sure we found it entertaining up to a bit, but the movie just repeats itself over and over. The movie that will leave its legacy this year will be Avatar. Who cares if its made a ton of money, people really like it.

  18. And people keep wondering why the audience for the Academy Awards goes down when they keep wanting to give top awards to movies that the industry loves, but not the country. I watched Hurt Locker with about 10 friends. Sure we found it entertaining up to a bit, but the movie just repeats itself over and over. The movie that will leave its legacy this year will be Avatar. Who cares if its made a ton of money, people really like it.

  19. The Hurt Locker will win, even although Avatar is the one that deserves it. The Hurt Locker is entertaining enough, well-acted, some good lines, well-directed but it somehow just doesn’t come together. Sadly, the new voting system all but guarantees The Hurt Locker will win. It’s nowhere near the cinematic greatness of Full Metal Jacket or The Thin Red Line, two war films that didn’t win the Academy Award.

    But still, its the Oscars folks, its not to be taken seriously. This is an organisation that gave the Best Film Oscar to Crash, Chicago, Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire…

  20. The Hurt Locker will win, even although Avatar is the one that deserves it. The Hurt Locker is entertaining enough, well-acted, some good lines, well-directed but it somehow just doesn’t come together. Sadly, the new voting system all but guarantees The Hurt Locker will win. It’s nowhere near the cinematic greatness of Full Metal Jacket or The Thin Red Line, two war films that didn’t win the Academy Award.

    But still, its the Oscars folks, its not to be taken seriously. This is an organisation that gave the Best Film Oscar to Crash, Chicago, Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire…

  21. “it’s infinitely less deep than “Basterds” both on a character level and a “commentary on warfighting” level, and none of the acting stands out like it does in Precious, Up in the Air, etc.”

    Oh no you di’int.

  22. “it’s infinitely less deep than “Basterds” both on a character level and a “commentary on warfighting” level, and none of the acting stands out like it does in Precious, Up in the Air, etc.”

    Oh no you di’int.

  23. The film from 2009 that people will be watching most 50 years from now will probably be one that none of us would guess correctly.

  24. The film from 2009 that people will be watching most 50 years from now will probably be one that none of us would guess correctly.

  25. Best Picture Nominees for 1959:

    Ben Hur *

    Anatomy of a Muder

    Room at the Top

    The Diary of Ann Frank

    The Nun’s Story

    Film most watched now from that year…I’d guess North By Northwest

  26. Best Picture Nominees for 1959:

    Ben Hur *

    Anatomy of a Muder

    Room at the Top

    The Diary of Ann Frank

    The Nun’s Story

    Film most watched now from that year…I’d guess North By Northwest

  27. The 2009 film that’ll probably be watched the most in the years ahead is District 9. It’ll have a great second life as a cable/college dorm staple.

    The Hurt Locker is a good movie, but it’s been incredibly overpraised. It’s a minor miracle that it’s managed to sustain its momentum for effectively 18 months. But I think after (if) it wins the Best Picture Oscar, a lot of people are going to rent/buy it and watch it for the first time and then think “Is that it?” after they’ve finished. I personally felt like the critical avalanche of praise negatively affected my first viewing of it. I was told it was like the second coming of Christ, and when I found it to be just a high-quality action/suspense thriller I wondered what else there was to it that I was supposedly missing.

    But there really isn’t that much to it. It signals its major point with that quote at the start, and then we get a series of set pieces illustrating it. Phreaker made a case for it being the film that best summarizes the Iraq War quagmire that Americans are stuck in right now, but I really don’t think it does. I don’t think you could have taken anything away about the difficulty of winning the Iraq War from this film alone, if you hadn’t watched news reports or read opinion pieces about the same subject.

    I’d rank it alongside a high-quality Bourne film. It’s that kind of gourmet popcorn movie. It’s perfectly fine, and I don’t hate the fact that it’s in the Oscar race; I just find it bizarre.

  28. The 2009 film that’ll probably be watched the most in the years ahead is District 9. It’ll have a great second life as a cable/college dorm staple.

    The Hurt Locker is a good movie, but it’s been incredibly overpraised. It’s a minor miracle that it’s managed to sustain its momentum for effectively 18 months. But I think after (if) it wins the Best Picture Oscar, a lot of people are going to rent/buy it and watch it for the first time and then think “Is that it?” after they’ve finished. I personally felt like the critical avalanche of praise negatively affected my first viewing of it. I was told it was like the second coming of Christ, and when I found it to be just a high-quality action/suspense thriller I wondered what else there was to it that I was supposedly missing.

    But there really isn’t that much to it. It signals its major point with that quote at the start, and then we get a series of set pieces illustrating it. Phreaker made a case for it being the film that best summarizes the Iraq War quagmire that Americans are stuck in right now, but I really don’t think it does. I don’t think you could have taken anything away about the difficulty of winning the Iraq War from this film alone, if you hadn’t watched news reports or read opinion pieces about the same subject.

    I’d rank it alongside a high-quality Bourne film. It’s that kind of gourmet popcorn movie. It’s perfectly fine, and I don’t hate the fact that it’s in the Oscar race; I just find it bizarre.

  29. Seeing this film during the summer I recognized HURT LOCKER as a different film, it was taut and explored the current state of war and its participants on an individual plane, much like THREE KINGS but with less snark.

    The problem with the BEST PICTURE category is the Academy inability to look beyond their own emotional ties to the material rather than seeing a films contribution to the art. Whether this is due to backlot deals or pressure for ratings it completely tarnishes the title. Any true movie lover knows CRASH, CHICAGO, A BEAUTIFUL MIND , among others severely lacked in comparison to their respective and more worthy competition. But by opening the category it’s only inevitable that trash like THE BLIND SIDE would syphon through much like the maligned CRASH and thats where the trouble lies. And its due to that sort of ability for a film such as those two films that i no longer pay interest to what is considered “best”

  30. Seeing this film during the summer I recognized HURT LOCKER as a different film, it was taut and explored the current state of war and its participants on an individual plane, much like THREE KINGS but with less snark.

    The problem with the BEST PICTURE category is the Academy inability to look beyond their own emotional ties to the material rather than seeing a films contribution to the art. Whether this is due to backlot deals or pressure for ratings it completely tarnishes the title. Any true movie lover knows CRASH, CHICAGO, A BEAUTIFUL MIND , among others severely lacked in comparison to their respective and more worthy competition. But by opening the category it’s only inevitable that trash like THE BLIND SIDE would syphon through much like the maligned CRASH and thats where the trouble lies. And its due to that sort of ability for a film such as those two films that i no longer pay interest to what is considered “best”

  31. THE HURT LOCKER is the CRASH of ’09, with one exception: I loathed CRASH, and I liked HURT well enough, but I am perplexed by its front runner status. Not very original to say this, but if this film had been directed by a man, it would not be in the BP race…

  32. THE HURT LOCKER is the CRASH of ’09, with one exception: I loathed CRASH, and I liked HURT well enough, but I am perplexed by its front runner status. Not very original to say this, but if this film had been directed by a man, it would not be in the BP race…

  33. Milkman nailed it again. I’m just perplexed by this mentality of *finally* honoring a woman as Best Director, but when they do, it’s for aping a generic shaky-cam action thriller. Bigelow is a drag king.

    In all seriousness, I always thought Jane Campion would be the first woman to win a directing Oscar. She’s earned it just as much as, and in my opinion more than, Bigelow. The fact that she had Bright Star this year is ironic.

    If the Academy feels a woman is due a directing Oscar, shouldn’t it be for something that is unique and reflects a sensibility that has, until now, gone unrecognized?

    I recall Jeff likening The Hurt Locker to Aliens. Let me just say that I can watch Aliens once or twice a month. It’s the best of its kind … The Hurt Locker included.

  34. Milkman nailed it again. I’m just perplexed by this mentality of *finally* honoring a woman as Best Director, but when they do, it’s for aping a generic shaky-cam action thriller. Bigelow is a drag king.

    In all seriousness, I always thought Jane Campion would be the first woman to win a directing Oscar. She’s earned it just as much as, and in my opinion more than, Bigelow. The fact that she had Bright Star this year is ironic.

    If the Academy feels a woman is due a directing Oscar, shouldn’t it be for something that is unique and reflects a sensibility that has, until now, gone unrecognized?

    I recall Jeff likening The Hurt Locker to Aliens. Let me just say that I can watch Aliens once or twice a month. It’s the best of its kind … The Hurt Locker included.

  35. With you all the way Raygo vis-a-vis Aliens (not so much on Jane Campion though, her firms are pretty but also pretty dull, IMHO).

    I liked The Hurt Locker a lot, but gotta say I liked Up In The Air more.

  36. With you all the way Raygo vis-a-vis Aliens (not so much on Jane Campion though, her firms are pretty but also pretty dull, IMHO).

    I liked The Hurt Locker a lot, but gotta say I liked Up In The Air more.

  37. “…but I am perplexed by its front runner status.”

    When it’s been determined that the most viable alternative is “Avatar”, the frontrunner status attained by “The Hurt Locker” shouldn’t be all that perplexing. Anyone thinking that “Avatar” has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance, and those films didn’t earn nearly the level of mockery and derision during their initial releases as “Avatar” has already amassed.

  38. “…but I am perplexed by its front runner status.”

    When it’s been determined that the most viable alternative is “Avatar”, the frontrunner status attained by “The Hurt Locker” shouldn’t be all that perplexing. Anyone thinking that “Avatar” has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance, and those films didn’t earn nearly the level of mockery and derision during their initial releases as “Avatar” has already amassed.

  39. “Not very original to say this, but if this film had been directed by a man, it would not be in the BP race…” (JHR)

    I thought about this, and it would have to depend on the man and his resume. “The Hurt Locker” would earn Ridley Scott an Oscar.

  40. “Not very original to say this, but if this film had been directed by a man, it would not be in the BP race…” (JHR)

    I thought about this, and it would have to depend on the man and his resume. “The Hurt Locker” would earn Ridley Scott an Oscar.

  41. Will there ever be another Oscar-winning Best Picture that can stand next to the likes of “Casablanca”, “The Godfather”, or “Lawrence of Arabia”? No one is ever going to convince me that “Crash”, “Slumdog Millionaire”, “Chicago”, and if it wins on March 7, even “The Hurt Locker” deserve comparison to those films. Maybe I’m wrong about “The Hurt Locker”, just as the Academy was wrong in hindsight about choosing “My Fair Lady” over ‘Dr. Strangelove” or “How Green Was My Valley” over “Citizen Kane”. Contemporary perception has a way of looking either very prescient or egregiously embarrassing over time, but I’m still waiting for a film with the time-tested transcendence of the first three I mentioned.

  42. Will there ever be another Oscar-winning Best Picture that can stand next to the likes of “Casablanca”, “The Godfather”, or “Lawrence of Arabia”? No one is ever going to convince me that “Crash”, “Slumdog Millionaire”, “Chicago”, and if it wins on March 7, even “The Hurt Locker” deserve comparison to those films. Maybe I’m wrong about “The Hurt Locker”, just as the Academy was wrong in hindsight about choosing “My Fair Lady” over ‘Dr. Strangelove” or “How Green Was My Valley” over “Citizen Kane”. Contemporary perception has a way of looking either very prescient or egregiously embarrassing over time, but I’m still waiting for a film with the time-tested transcendence of the first three I mentioned.

  43. “Film most watched now from that year…I’d guess North By Northwest”

    I’m gonna throw my unscientific opinion in for ‘Some Like It Hot’…

    but looking at the Wikipedia page, in might well be ‘Sleeping Beauty’.

  44. “Film most watched now from that year…I’d guess North By Northwest”

    I’m gonna throw my unscientific opinion in for ‘Some Like It Hot’…

    but looking at the Wikipedia page, in might well be ‘Sleeping Beauty’.

  45. And to think that “North By Northwest”, “Some Like It Hot”, “Vertigo”, and “2001″ weren’t even NOMINATED for Best Picture. I rest my case.

  46. And to think that “North By Northwest”, “Some Like It Hot”, “Vertigo”, and “2001″ weren’t even NOMINATED for Best Picture. I rest my case.

  47. Hurt Locker is a film that speaks to the now, It speaks of a generation of soldiers that have spent nearly a decade in Afghanistan and Iraq to the point that they are detached from the USA. This isn’t the short timers war. you never know when you’re done. you have National Guard and Reserve members going on their fourth tours of duty. They Kurtz was nuts for doing how many tours in Nam? Today’s reserve troops come back and can’t get their life together simply because they know in a few months, they’ll be packing up for another round in the dirt. The ending of this film rings true. It’s a treadmill.

    the Hurt Locker isn’t a reworking of Pocohantas or a World War 2 Jewish fantasy.

    It also dares to blow the lid off how the US military has been allowing the sale of Haji videos to the troops. Way to protect the world from video pirates

  48. Hurt Locker is a film that speaks to the now, It speaks of a generation of soldiers that have spent nearly a decade in Afghanistan and Iraq to the point that they are detached from the USA. This isn’t the short timers war. you never know when you’re done. you have National Guard and Reserve members going on their fourth tours of duty. They Kurtz was nuts for doing how many tours in Nam? Today’s reserve troops come back and can’t get their life together simply because they know in a few months, they’ll be packing up for another round in the dirt. The ending of this film rings true. It’s a treadmill.

    the Hurt Locker isn’t a reworking of Pocohantas or a World War 2 Jewish fantasy.

    It also dares to blow the lid off how the US military has been allowing the sale of Haji videos to the troops. Way to protect the world from video pirates

  49. [i]“Anyone thinking that “Avatar” has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance, and those films didn’t earn nearly the level of mockery and derision during their initial releases as “Avatar” has already amassed.”[/i]

    I don’t know who you were hanging around with in the early 00′s, but in my world (not the entertainment business) LOTR was mocked pretty mercilessly for being treacly, melodramatic, and, mostly, (gulp) gay. That said, I don’t think Avatar has gotten even close to the levels of internet mockery that LOTR received. It may be unfair since LOTR is a 3 film trilogy, so it was in the public consciousness (for better or worse) for 3 years.

    I for one, believe D9, IB, and Avatar will be remembered and looked back on as a major genre classics in the years to come. And THL will be a distant memory before the summer arrives. Draw your own conclusions.

  50. [i]“Anyone thinking that “Avatar” has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance, and those films didn’t earn nearly the level of mockery and derision during their initial releases as “Avatar” has already amassed.”[/i]

    I don’t know who you were hanging around with in the early 00′s, but in my world (not the entertainment business) LOTR was mocked pretty mercilessly for being treacly, melodramatic, and, mostly, (gulp) gay. That said, I don’t think Avatar has gotten even close to the levels of internet mockery that LOTR received. It may be unfair since LOTR is a 3 film trilogy, so it was in the public consciousness (for better or worse) for 3 years.

    I for one, believe D9, IB, and Avatar will be remembered and looked back on as a major genre classics in the years to come. And THL will be a distant memory before the summer arrives. Draw your own conclusions.

  51. It’s very possible, if one dared to be prescient about this, that “The Hurt Locker” will be a cinematic benchmark for today’s GI as “The Best Years of Our Lives” was for the WWII soldier.

  52. It’s very possible, if one dared to be prescient about this, that “The Hurt Locker” will be a cinematic benchmark for today’s GI as “The Best Years of Our Lives” was for the WWII soldier.

  53. All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.

    I remember just a few weeks ago when people were praising it to the heavens, but since it’s now the frontrunner it’s forgettable.

  54. All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.

    I remember just a few weeks ago when people were praising it to the heavens, but since it’s now the frontrunner it’s forgettable.

  55. “All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.”

    Hate is too strong a word to describe how I feel about THL. But yeah, it does seem that people are coming out of the wood work to register a gripe.

    I don’t feel passion for any of the films in the race this year; this is the weakest year for great movies since 2005. Is THL the front runner now because of the lack of competition, or because it is a monumental achievement in film making? I believe it is because of the tepid slate of competitors, and the lady director thing, that has pushed THL into the pole position.

  56. “All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.”

    Hate is too strong a word to describe how I feel about THL. But yeah, it does seem that people are coming out of the wood work to register a gripe.

    I don’t feel passion for any of the films in the race this year; this is the weakest year for great movies since 2005. Is THL the front runner now because of the lack of competition, or because it is a monumental achievement in film making? I believe it is because of the tepid slate of competitors, and the lady director thing, that has pushed THL into the pole position.

  57. “LOTR was mocked pretty mercilessly for being treacly, melodramatic, and, mostly, (gulp) gay.”

    What part of that statement is inapplicable to “Avatar”?

  58. “LOTR was mocked pretty mercilessly for being treacly, melodramatic, and, mostly, (gulp) gay.”

    What part of that statement is inapplicable to “Avatar”?

  59. If you watched the BAFTA awards, when Bigelow’s name was called, they cut to Cameron just as his wife turned to him and cleared mouthed ‘she’s going all the way.’

  60. If you watched the BAFTA awards, when Bigelow’s name was called, they cut to Cameron just as his wife turned to him and cleared mouthed ‘she’s going all the way.’

  61. “Today’s reserve troops come back and can’t get their life together simply because they know in a few months, they’ll be packing up for another round in the dirt. The ending of this film rings true. It’s a treadmill.”

    But the character chooses to go back at the end of THL. It’s not like Stop-Loss which is far more concerned with the issue you’re talking about. Renner decides he fancies another go because he gets a buzz from it – I don’t think you can make wider political points based on that.

  62. “Today’s reserve troops come back and can’t get their life together simply because they know in a few months, they’ll be packing up for another round in the dirt. The ending of this film rings true. It’s a treadmill.”

    But the character chooses to go back at the end of THL. It’s not like Stop-Loss which is far more concerned with the issue you’re talking about. Renner decides he fancies another go because he gets a buzz from it – I don’t think you can make wider political points based on that.

  63. The Hurt Locker will win, even although Avatar is the one that deserves it. The Hurt Locker is entertaining enough, well-acted, some good lines, well-directed but it somehow just doesn’t come together. Sadly, the new voting system all but guarantees The Hurt Locker will win. It’s nowhere near the cinematic greatness of Full Metal Jacket or The Thin Red Line, two war films that didn’t win the Academy Award.

    But still, its the Oscars folks, its not to be taken seriously. This is an organisation that gave the Best Film Oscar to Crash, Chicago, Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire…

  64. Calum – no, some of us have been pretty consistent in our “meh-ness” over THL. The day after I saw it last summer I was posting on here asking “THIS is what Jeff has been raving about for 9 months???”

    That said, I’m not totally down on it and in “competition” over what was a better last year, it is over AVATAR which will age very, very badly as the years go by and the effects become more dated.

    When it has to survive based solely on its story and characters, AVATAR is going to suffer greatly compared to other established classics.

  65. Calum – no, some of us have been pretty consistent in our “meh-ness” over THL. The day after I saw it last summer I was posting on here asking “THIS is what Jeff has been raving about for 9 months???”

    That said, I’m not totally down on it and in “competition” over what was a better last year, it is over AVATAR which will age very, very badly as the years go by and the effects become more dated.

    When it has to survive based solely on its story and characters, AVATAR is going to suffer greatly compared to other established classics.

  66. “THE HURT LOCKER is the CRASH of ’09,”

    Well it’s either the Crash or it’s the Brokeback. Maybe up your mind. If it was the Crash it would have only won the SAG ensemble and the editors award.

    The whiners on this board and elsewhere are whining because Avatar or Inglourious Basterds isn’t winning everything. Avatar might still win Best Picture and then history will out it as one of the worst decisions the Academy has ever made. Watching the clips of Avatar on the BAFTA – and the television made it really look like a cartoon. It must be seen on a 3-D screen for the experience to be full and complete. Great, fine – but all of that excitement and flare it produces doesn’t amount to a whole lot of there, there.

    Anyone idiotic enough to think that The Hurt Locker, arguably the best reviewed (by real critics) film of the year is like Crash, which wasn’t well reviewed and came in a shocker upset at the Oscars simply has their head stuffed so far up their asshole they can see out of their mouths.

    SO everyone is wrong except a group of blowhards on a message board, right? All of the critics, the directors, the producers, the writers — yeah? Okay, so if money is your only point of contention, let’s start nominating ALL of the blockbusters for the big prize. Let’s make the Oscars just like the MTV movie awards because at least the dull and conditioned masses will get to watch and feel involved. God forbid they should try to actually see what all of the fuss is about. But no. Don’t try to think. Just sit back and have your entertainment delivered to you. Isn’t that how you’ve been conditioned since the ’80s? Consumerism at its worst?

    Give the people what they want, by god.

  67. “THE HURT LOCKER is the CRASH of ’09,”

    Well it’s either the Crash or it’s the Brokeback. Maybe up your mind. If it was the Crash it would have only won the SAG ensemble and the editors award.

    The whiners on this board and elsewhere are whining because Avatar or Inglourious Basterds isn’t winning everything. Avatar might still win Best Picture and then history will out it as one of the worst decisions the Academy has ever made. Watching the clips of Avatar on the BAFTA – and the television made it really look like a cartoon. It must be seen on a 3-D screen for the experience to be full and complete. Great, fine – but all of that excitement and flare it produces doesn’t amount to a whole lot of there, there.

    Anyone idiotic enough to think that The Hurt Locker, arguably the best reviewed (by real critics) film of the year is like Crash, which wasn’t well reviewed and came in a shocker upset at the Oscars simply has their head stuffed so far up their asshole they can see out of their mouths.

    SO everyone is wrong except a group of blowhards on a message board, right? All of the critics, the directors, the producers, the writers — yeah? Okay, so if money is your only point of contention, let’s start nominating ALL of the blockbusters for the big prize. Let’s make the Oscars just like the MTV movie awards because at least the dull and conditioned masses will get to watch and feel involved. God forbid they should try to actually see what all of the fuss is about. But no. Don’t try to think. Just sit back and have your entertainment delivered to you. Isn’t that how you’ve been conditioned since the ’80s? Consumerism at its worst?

    Give the people what they want, by god.

  68. The last big Sci-Fi film I remember that everyone would consider a “phenomenon” is STAR WARS. That film was up for 10 Oscars and winning 6. It also managed a Supporting Actor nom for Guinness and a Screenplay nom. As big and influential as that film was, it still lost Best Picture. Avatar lacks acting and writing nominations, which I think really hurts. Has a film ever won Best Picture without both of those? Return of the King still managed a Screenplay nom and win. I don’t see the Academy picking this sci-fi film to represent them this year.

  69. The last big Sci-Fi film I remember that everyone would consider a “phenomenon” is STAR WARS. That film was up for 10 Oscars and winning 6. It also managed a Supporting Actor nom for Guinness and a Screenplay nom. As big and influential as that film was, it still lost Best Picture. Avatar lacks acting and writing nominations, which I think really hurts. Has a film ever won Best Picture without both of those? Return of the King still managed a Screenplay nom and win. I don’t see the Academy picking this sci-fi film to represent them this year.

  70. Calum-

    “All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.”

    Speaking for myself, it’s not sudden “hate,” just a long-term antipathy cresting. It’s a good movie, well made, but there’s just nothing “to it.” What little character ground it legitimately covers was covered more completely – in a better movie – in “Jarhead.” It’s every bit as much a pure technical action-machinery exercise as “Avatar” is, but since it cost next-to-nothing and has an incidental connection to “the now” people want to think it’s more than it is.

    Don’t misunderstand, I’m not an “Avatar” booster. Given the choice between only those two, I’d prefer it for purely selfish reasons: “Genre film” is still consigned to a ghetto and a win here helps knock that wall down. But objectively, given that both it and Locker are fundamentally shallow directorial exercises I wouldn’t vote for either one in the same year that gave us “District 9″ and “Basterds” – two ‘total package’ movies that look great, have killer concepts and ultra-stimulating technical direction but also cracking scripts and genuine depth. Hell, I’d go for “Serious Man” ahead of them as well.

    But if it REALLY does just come down to “look how much I did with this MUCH money” versus “look how much I did with so LITTLE money,” I’ll take the one with the robots and cat-people.

  71. Calum-

    “All this hate for THL seems to have come up over night.”

    Speaking for myself, it’s not sudden “hate,” just a long-term antipathy cresting. It’s a good movie, well made, but there’s just nothing “to it.” What little character ground it legitimately covers was covered more completely – in a better movie – in “Jarhead.” It’s every bit as much a pure technical action-machinery exercise as “Avatar” is, but since it cost next-to-nothing and has an incidental connection to “the now” people want to think it’s more than it is.

    Don’t misunderstand, I’m not an “Avatar” booster. Given the choice between only those two, I’d prefer it for purely selfish reasons: “Genre film” is still consigned to a ghetto and a win here helps knock that wall down. But objectively, given that both it and Locker are fundamentally shallow directorial exercises I wouldn’t vote for either one in the same year that gave us “District 9″ and “Basterds” – two ‘total package’ movies that look great, have killer concepts and ultra-stimulating technical direction but also cracking scripts and genuine depth. Hell, I’d go for “Serious Man” ahead of them as well.

    But if it REALLY does just come down to “look how much I did with this MUCH money” versus “look how much I did with so LITTLE money,” I’ll take the one with the robots and cat-people.

  72. Avatar is like the doodles of spaceships I made on the back of my notebooks from Jr. High School. As a kid, they were totally rad… as an adult, somewhat charming, but kind-of embarrassing.

    If it wins Best Picture, it won’t be the first such idiocy to win… LOTR is similar, but it had more resonant imagery, a dollop of ambiguity with Gollum, and a much, much better score that elevated it slightly.

  73. Avatar is like the doodles of spaceships I made on the back of my notebooks from Jr. High School. As a kid, they were totally rad… as an adult, somewhat charming, but kind-of embarrassing.

    If it wins Best Picture, it won’t be the first such idiocy to win… LOTR is similar, but it had more resonant imagery, a dollop of ambiguity with Gollum, and a much, much better score that elevated it slightly.

  74. “But the character chooses to go back at the end of THL. It’s not like Stop-Loss which is far more concerned with the issue you’re talking about. Renner decides he fancies another go because he gets a buzz from it – I don’t think you can make wider political points based on that.”

    I’m not talking a stupid movie here. I’m talking about a pal who is serving his 4th tour over there. He goes back not because of stop-loss – it’s just that this warzone is where his life is now. He gets frustrated when he’s back in the USA. I’ve seen it in other folks who are back between tours.

    I’ve worked with guys who lost legs in Iraq from IEDs and they want to get back. This isn’t the usual war where people do their time and get out. This has become a part of their identity and Hurt Locker touches upon that without turning people blue or killing Hitler.

  75. “But the character chooses to go back at the end of THL. It’s not like Stop-Loss which is far more concerned with the issue you’re talking about. Renner decides he fancies another go because he gets a buzz from it – I don’t think you can make wider political points based on that.”

    I’m not talking a stupid movie here. I’m talking about a pal who is serving his 4th tour over there. He goes back not because of stop-loss – it’s just that this warzone is where his life is now. He gets frustrated when he’s back in the USA. I’ve seen it in other folks who are back between tours.

    I’ve worked with guys who lost legs in Iraq from IEDs and they want to get back. This isn’t the usual war where people do their time and get out. This has become a part of their identity and Hurt Locker touches upon that without turning people blue or killing Hitler.

  76. It’s currently a Locker. It’s all sealed. In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.

  77. It’s currently a Locker. It’s all sealed. In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.

  78. Sorry for the mass cut-n-paste job, but I was away for most of the day and wanted to try to jump in at the end of the discussion here:

    “If the Academy feels a woman is due a directing Oscar, shouldn’t it be for something that is unique and reflects a sensibility that has, until now, gone unrecognized?”

    In a word, no. Doing so would reflect some kind of bizarre, pre-meditated group-think on the part of voters. People are urged to vote for a directing style employed by a specific film, they’re not trying to start some kind of symbolic movement.

    “Anyone thinking that Avatar has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance.”

    Eh? What does this even mean?

    “Will there ever be another Oscar-winning Best Picture that can stand next to the likes of Casablanca, The Godfather, or Lawrence of Arabia?”

    Perhaps not, but that is a 30 year gap between the movies you mentioned. While I certainly agree the vast majority of the most recent selections have been middling, there was a period in the early ’90s where Silence of the Lambs, Unforgiven and Schindler’s List were chosen back-to-back-to-back. That’s a pretty quality run there, IMHO (and it’s only accentuated by the fact that it coulda/shoulda been Goodfellas the year before SotL).

    “Anyone idiotic enough to think that The Hurt Locker, arguably the best reviewed (by real critics) film of the year”

    I think an equally strong case can be made for Up, but I digress. What are these “real critics” you speak of and how do you differentiate them from the fake ones?

    “This has become a part of their identity and Hurt Locker touches upon that without turning people blue or killing Hitler.”

    Doesn’t it also make it feel a little too much like you’re being lectured, and not being engrossed in the actual narrative? I’m not trying to be snarky, I’m seriously asking.

    “It’s currently a Locker. It’s all sealed. In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.”

    I think you’re getting a little carried away with Locker fever, there. I can see it winning two of those, possibly even three, but that’s about it. I don’t even think it’s the likely runner-up for Original Screenplay or Cinematography.

  79. Sorry for the mass cut-n-paste job, but I was away for most of the day and wanted to try to jump in at the end of the discussion here:

    “If the Academy feels a woman is due a directing Oscar, shouldn’t it be for something that is unique and reflects a sensibility that has, until now, gone unrecognized?”

    In a word, no. Doing so would reflect some kind of bizarre, pre-meditated group-think on the part of voters. People are urged to vote for a directing style employed by a specific film, they’re not trying to start some kind of symbolic movement.

    “Anyone thinking that Avatar has a long shelf life of high esteem in the annals of cinema need only look to the “LOTR” trilogy for guidance.”

    Eh? What does this even mean?

    “Will there ever be another Oscar-winning Best Picture that can stand next to the likes of Casablanca, The Godfather, or Lawrence of Arabia?”

    Perhaps not, but that is a 30 year gap between the movies you mentioned. While I certainly agree the vast majority of the most recent selections have been middling, there was a period in the early ’90s where Silence of the Lambs, Unforgiven and Schindler’s List were chosen back-to-back-to-back. That’s a pretty quality run there, IMHO (and it’s only accentuated by the fact that it coulda/shoulda been Goodfellas the year before SotL).

    “Anyone idiotic enough to think that The Hurt Locker, arguably the best reviewed (by real critics) film of the year”

    I think an equally strong case can be made for Up, but I digress. What are these “real critics” you speak of and how do you differentiate them from the fake ones?

    “This has become a part of their identity and Hurt Locker touches upon that without turning people blue or killing Hitler.”

    Doesn’t it also make it feel a little too much like you’re being lectured, and not being engrossed in the actual narrative? I’m not trying to be snarky, I’m seriously asking.

    “It’s currently a Locker. It’s all sealed. In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.”

    I think you’re getting a little carried away with Locker fever, there. I can see it winning two of those, possibly even three, but that’s about it. I don’t even think it’s the likely runner-up for Original Screenplay or Cinematography.

  80. CKfCG says “In a word, no. Doing so would reflect some kind of bizarre, pre-meditated group-think on the part of voters. People are urged to vote for a directing style employed by a specific film, they’re not trying to start some kind of symbolic movement.”

    I understand your point. But isn’t this Bigelow award symbolic? That’s all you hear about it. Finally … a woman directed a macho war film (shall we say) … as good as a man? Because that’s the subtext here.

  81. CKfCG says “In a word, no. Doing so would reflect some kind of bizarre, pre-meditated group-think on the part of voters. People are urged to vote for a directing style employed by a specific film, they’re not trying to start some kind of symbolic movement.”

    I understand your point. But isn’t this Bigelow award symbolic? That’s all you hear about it. Finally … a woman directed a macho war film (shall we say) … as good as a man? Because that’s the subtext here.

  82. @jse33

    Only ONE film has ever won best picture without an acting nod and without a screenwriting nod… and that was 77 years ago. (GRAND HOTEL for 1931/1932.)

    Not a stat that makes one want to predict AVATAR.

  83. @jse33

    Only ONE film has ever won best picture without an acting nod and without a screenwriting nod… and that was 77 years ago. (GRAND HOTEL for 1931/1932.)

    Not a stat that makes one want to predict AVATAR.

  84. “In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.”

    You say “even going to win editing” as if there was ever any doubt, and “going to win Original Screenplay” as if it’s even likely to happen.

    The problem with predicting ‘The Hurt Locker’ is that, in order to have the numbers, it’s going to have to win Screenplay (which it’s certainly not the favorite in, though it has a shot, yes), Cinematography (which is generally a technical award and seems likely to go to ‘Avatar’, but is basically the award Locker or Basterds needs to win to have any momentum going to the ending), and at least one of those two sound awards (I’ve been saying it takes mixing, because that has more to do with live on-set recording, but I think Avatar is a lock for sound editing).

    My final pick is:

    Avatar: 5

    Hurt Locker: 3 [specifically, Director, Editing, and Sound Mixing]

    Basterds, Up, Young Victoria, An Education*: 2

    Crazy Heart, Blind Side, Precious: 1

    * = (yeah, I’m going against the grain with Adapted Screenplay)

  85. “In fact it’s even going to win Original Screenplay and editing. Perhaps even Cinematography and both the sound categories.”

    You say “even going to win editing” as if there was ever any doubt, and “going to win Original Screenplay” as if it’s even likely to happen.

    The problem with predicting ‘The Hurt Locker’ is that, in order to have the numbers, it’s going to have to win Screenplay (which it’s certainly not the favorite in, though it has a shot, yes), Cinematography (which is generally a technical award and seems likely to go to ‘Avatar’, but is basically the award Locker or Basterds needs to win to have any momentum going to the ending), and at least one of those two sound awards (I’ve been saying it takes mixing, because that has more to do with live on-set recording, but I think Avatar is a lock for sound editing).

    My final pick is:

    Avatar: 5

    Hurt Locker: 3 [specifically, Director, Editing, and Sound Mixing]

    Basterds, Up, Young Victoria, An Education*: 2

    Crazy Heart, Blind Side, Precious: 1

    * = (yeah, I’m going against the grain with Adapted Screenplay)

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