Dumbfound
Hot Tub Time Machine is at least as funny as The Hangover if not funnier, and it’s certainly much wilder, and it grossed a lousy $4.5 million yesterday? Which is only $900,000 more than the $4 million earned by the second-stanza Bounty Hunter, which people with taste and brains are said to despise? What happened?
Standoffish women is what happened. Plus the fact that HTTM only opened in 2700-plus situations compared to 4,055 screens for How To Train Your Dragon, the weekend’s top-grossing film, and 3384 runs for Tim Burton‘s second-place Alice in Wonderland.
Definite interest among under-25 males for HTTM was a relatively okay 46, but a not-so-hot 30 among over-25 males (i.e., guys who were young in the ’80s). Clash of the Titans (4.2) has a definite interest factor of 59 among under-25 males by comparison, and Kick Ass (which doesn’t open until 4.16) has an under-25 definite interest at 67. Hot Tub managed to wrangle a mere definite interest 31 from under-25 females, and over-25 females only gave it a 26.
I know what this film is, I know how well it played with the crowd I saw it with, and a $13 or $14 million weekend gross just doesn’t seem to add up. It’s not a disaster — it’ll end up with $45 or $50 million domestic — but it doesn’t seem proportionate to what HTTM actually is.
How To Train Your Dragon took in $12.2 million yesterday and Alice pulled down $4.7 million.
I felt that, while there were parts of “HTTM ” that were funnier than “The Hangover”, on the whole, the story and pacing of the latter made it a better overall movie. Some parts of “HTTM” lagged for me.
And just to go off on a tangent for a second, I don’t know if it’s the baggage I bought to the theater or what, but I was surprisingly impressed, for the most part, with “She’s Out Of My League”.
I know your gaga over HTTM, but I have to say the trailers were completely uninspiring. I’m just not that motivated to see it. And, I’m in the target audience.
No Mike Tyson in the trailers.
It’s true. THE HANGOVER trailers with Stu’s Song and the one with Tyson and In the Air Tonight were masterful.
If Hot Tub’s doing this weakly, then I think LG is gonna be very unhappy with Kick-Ass. Sounds like the superhero equivalent to Snakes on a Plane to me. Though ‘Dragon sounds kind of like it’s got the more underwhelming return, considering how DW was promoting the hell out of it. Looked too similar to Shrek, maybe? Speaking of which, I wonder if the fourth film won’t suffer from looking too much like the other three films.
Jeff: I think Titans is gonna have a nasty drop. Great trailer, but those clips just aren’t doing it for me.
I saw it today. It’s a good movie but by no means a classic. Had a couple of funny gross-out moments, but The Hangover was the better all-round package. I can’t really remember any of the jokes and I only saw it this morning. None of the characters felt anywhere near as developed as the Hangover ones, and their quest felt a lot less urgent. In the Hangover, if the protagonists failed, the whole wedding was fucked and their friendship likely ruined. In HTTM… SPOILER… they’d have probably had a better time staying in the ’80s like Corddry, and the only character who needed to get home (Clark Duke) was underwritten to the point that it was impossible to care for him.
The high concept was a decent gimmick to get them back in the ’80s, but it felt like a lot of the funny stuff was happening AROUND the characters rather than they themselves actually providing the laughs.
Cusack’s romance with Lizzy Caplan was pointless, not a single scene featuring Chevy Chase raised a laugh at all, and Duke was a waste of time.
It was amusing, but I was definitely expecting more given Wells’ flat-out rave review. And it was nowhere near as sick and crazy as Wells made it out to be. The gross-out scenes were just Farrelly-level. Funny, but hardly wildly disgusting.
I explained in your earlier posts how your predictions for HTTM were wildly off. I had a few laughs at the sneak preview I got, but this movie is so sloppily put together and holds little appeal for the female portion of the audience that it didn’t stand a chance.
As I said in my earlier posts, HTTM is slightly above a direct-to-dvd release comedy (think the infinite direct-to-DVD sequels of American Pie), and if it weren’t for the cast, it would’ve been direct-to-DVD.
Kick-Ass will be big hit. It will blow HTTM grosses out of the water.
Much as I’m ok with the guy, I think it’s the Clark Duke effect which can be blamed for the weak ranking. He’s the random nerd equivalent to Jonah Hill. No one knows why he’s in these things, and no one thinks he helps these pictures, but execs somehow consider him a selling point, anyway.
“What happened?” I think its target audience is watching college basketball this weekend.
moviesquad: I’m betting $60-$80 million max on a budget that was likely in the low $40 millions at best, not counting P+A, or whatever LG paid for the distribution rights. Though that’s still generous, and it’ll be lucky to hit $55 million.
HTTM looked ugly, too. Hangover was relatively nicely-shot and had the Vegas location going for it. HTTM was all interiors at some low-rent ski resort set. Looked like it was shot for about thirty-thousand dollars.
Eloi, agreed. Not that I think it matters that much, but THE HANGOVER was actually very well composed and shot The opening credits sequence set to Danzig’s Thirteen really set the tone. I still don’t think it was that much better than HTTM, but probably a lot more appealing to people on the fence.
I gotta agree about the trailer. Hangover’s trailer had a build to it, and it had mystery. (Why IS Ed Helms missing a tooth? What did they do last night to piss off Mike Tyson?) HTTM was fine but nothing special. I hear it’s as good as Hangover, but the marketing never led me there. it looks like the whole movie takes place in a ski lodge.
I still want to see it.
Yeah, “Wildly off” seems about right.
Hangover connected with people (a mystery to me) in ways this coked up boys-behaving badly doesn’t.
You’ve oversold it. It may have legs, but the Magic 8-ball points to “bomb.”
News flash. Hangover wasn’t all that. This is even elss.
Finally saw The Hangover. What prevented it from being great was the taser scene. Tacked on, pandering, unfunny and pathetic.
Saw Kick Ass here in the UK on Friday… trust me, the word of mouth on that film is going to be mindblowing… The audience I saw it with had every demographic over the age of 15 (It’s certification) and they literally cheered and applauded during the climax…. Such a brilliant film.
brad: Every demo isn’t the same as every seat filled with butts.
Have to agree with the “Hangover was funnier” crowd. Hot Tub Time Machine was good, but the marketing was terrible, and I knew almost every joke before I even saw the movie. MGM couldn’t market their way out of a paper bag. Hangover left a bunch of the jokes a surprise and left it to office workers to ruin the jokes, not the previews. Still, I found it charming and funny as hell and Corddry steals the picture, but if given a choice I’d rather watch Hangover on repeat viewings.
DZ- Clark Duke was probably attached when it was the Sex Drive guys directing, not just writing. I don’t believe anybody thinks of him as a viable commodity. (I find him annoying as hell. Just watch the last party scene in Superbad and watch how many times the sneaky bastard gets himself in frame).
Interesting that this and Shes Out Of My League were written in part by the same guys, but Hot Tub was miles better than League. I know people seem to like that one, too, but I just find it lazy, and all the groups of people talking about the events in the movie that we all saw in the trailer obnoxious.
And just to finish up my rant: I can’t wait to see Kick Ass, but I don’t think it’s gonna make a dime here. And if I have to see one more preview (particularly red-band) for the thing, I’m gonna hurt a small woodland creature.
DZ: Let me add it was a paid preview screening which by nature are never as busy as when the film is released, at 10.30pm at a cinema in Bristol that is 5th in the area market share (the cinema I’m a manager at is number 2) and the screening was at 90% capacity… so yeah… every demo filled by a bum on nearly every seat.
brad: Sneaks are even worse indicators of how well a film will do, because the target audience usually shows up en masse so they don’t have to catch the flick on its official release date. [Happened to me with Team America.]
Saw HTTM this afternoon with my wife.
There were six other people in the theater. The lack of crowd response may be part of it but I was pretty “meh” on it.
Some funny stuff, but not much. It all seemed pretty obvious to me and not particularly clever. And it just didn’t flow very well.
“Saw HTTM this afternoon with my wife.”
Fuck is wrong with you
DeeZee
You’ve never been correct on a BO prediction. I don’t think Kick Ass will break your streak.
China: Not true, and Kick Ass will just break the careers of everyone attached to it.
Well, actually, in Cage’s case, it’ll be Sorcerer’s Apprentice.
DeeZee
It is true. At least in the time I’ve been around here. Your two most obvious, pathetic predictions were IB and Avatar. Wildly wrong on both.
“Fuck is wrong with you”
I had to take her, seeing it was her idea.
DeeZee: You are wrong wrong wrong again. Prepare your ridiculous arguments now for why you were wrong and people went to see Kick-Ass.
China: You forgot about Jennifer’s Body, which Kick-Ass seems to be want to be for dudes.
Wiggum: If you’re so confident, then how many superhero parodies have been big hits, huh?
DeeZee, have you seen Kick-Ass? I saw HTTM before I commented in Jeff’s earlier threads that it was not going to do very well despite Jeff thinking it could possibly out Hangover the Hangover.
Kick-Ass literally DOES Kick-Ass. I don’t know where it’s going to top out due to the R rating, but I definitely see it over performing and setting Matthew Vaughn’s career on fire. I think he’ll be the biggest beneficiary from it besides Hit Girl. My only concern for it is the mediocre trailer which I saw tonight again before Greenberg. The trailer isn’t good enough for the film, but I think reviews and word of mouth will trump all and bring people out.
Yeah, I don’t remember any predictions made on JB. Link me to when you made that prediction so I can verify it.
You were so spectacularly wrong on the other two that they are what most people remember.
One BIG problem could be that a surprising number of people don’t seem to “get” that the premise itself – i.e. time travel via magic jacuzzi – being moronic is part of the joke. I’m looking at the feedback to my own (mostly) positive review and there’s so much “no way, the idea of this is soooo stupid!” I’m literally shocked. Maybe the whole “spoof of dopey high-concept 80s genre-comedies” thing doesn’t “click” for as wide an audience as was assumed…
moviesquad: “DeeZee, have you seen Kick-Ass?”
No, but I’ve seen the material it apes, and I know that shit in itself has niche appeal. So why would Kick-Ass somehow elevate the game?
“I saw HTTM before I commented in Jeff’s earlier threads that it was not going to do very well despite Jeff thinking it could possibly out Hangover the Hangover.”
So what? Most people didn’t expect HTTM to be a Hangover 2.0 at the box office.
“Kick-Ass literally DOES Kick-Ass.”
Yeah, and I hear Stardust really does feature celebrities made of dust. That fucker still didn’t make double its budget back, though; and Kick-Ass will be lucky to make double Punisher’s take in profit.
“I definitely see it over performing and setting Matthew Vaughn’s career on fire.I think he’ll be the biggest beneficiary from it besides Hit Girl.”
Yeah, because as Evan Rachel Wood’s career proved, audiences really want to pay to see young girls cursing out people. And if Vaughn wanted to be “discovered” by now, he wouldn’t have dropped X3 and Thor.
China: http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2009/09/why_body_died.php
DeeZee, have you seen Kick-Ass?
DZ doesn’t watch movies
Hangover had a better trailer.
HTTM came off looking like a movie about a kid and a bunch of Dads hanging out together trying to look hip and young.
2700 screens for HTTM is plenty to generate a big opening if the interest is there. Once you get over 2000 the theatre count begins to include a lot of smaller grossing venues that can’t possibly throw off the kinds of numbers you get from the first 2000 or so. Those big screen counts for ALICE and DRAGON have a lot of small towns that pretty much live and die on the family trade.
Okay, saw HTTM last night. Theater was at about half-capacity. Not a lot of laughs. I think Crispin Glover was the best part. But the thing is, it follows the same three-act structure of Back of the Future combined with the ski lodge episode of South Park.
The Hangover was funnier.
The reason why HTTM is doing so poorly is because no one under 30 gives a shit about the 1980s.
DeeZee, my point being that you can’t dismiss a movie’s potential just because you are familiar with its genre. Kick-Ass is nothing like The Punisher (or the lame Stardust for that matter.) It is a different beast, but I guess we only have to wait a few more weeks for you to find out.
Hit-Girl has charisma, and that’s what will get her cast in many more films. Evan Rachel Wood has dead eyes, a mostly dead set of expressions, and a monotone voice which hasn’t translated into a very good film career. It’s ridiculous to even compare the two just because there is swearing involved in their breakout roles.
moviesquad: “Kick-Ass is nothing like The Punisher ”
Same vigilante aesthetic to me…They even fight the fucking mob in both movies.
“Hit-Girl has charisma,”
Charisma? Even Lex is gonna be laughing at that comment. She’s just some mini-Britney spears lookalike trying to sound like Kevin Smith. Gawd, your standards must be low if that’s all it takes for you to find someone interesting.
@DZ
I’m curious what is with the constant references to LexG now?
Colin: Dunno. It just feels like there are certain places where his comments or mind-set would be the right fit.
1) Evan Rachel Wood is one of the most charismatic and beautiful women in the world, certainly one of my favorite actresses. Please do not care some annoying 10-year-old moppet from 500 Days of Summer to a truly magnetic performer like ERW.
2) HTTM POWER. Corddry was EXCELLENT. So was Jessica Pare. YEP YEP (Isn’t she WAY too big a star to be doing random nudity in a bit part?)
See? Even Lex doesn’t take Kick-Ass seriously, and it should be his kind of film.
Deez, I’ll believe the hype when I see literally ANYTHING about it that looks cinematic, exciting, or invigorating. I’ve seen three separate trailers, one bland, one trying too hard, and one dorky. There is NOTHING about any of the promo materials that suggests any kind of visionary, rule-bending geek masterpiece. Hell, it doesn’t even suggest Matthew Vaughn’s usual sleek look– it looks like it was shot for 18 bucks in a Michigan warehouse, not like a real movie.
And it’s still LITTLE KIDS and McLovin’. I mean, I kinda have to see it and I’m sure Cage and Strong amuse, but the idea that this stupid HIT GIRL think is going to take off is MIND BLOWING to me. It’s an annoying little kid in a stupid wig. MAYBE if she was around 17 and played by somebody AWESOME like Taylor Momsen or Dakota, then that would be a WHOLE other story…. but as it is, it’s not shocking or edgy, it’s just The Bad News Bears in superhero costumes.
Lex: QFT. They might as well state up-front in their ad campaign that it’s for man-children, since I don’t know any 18-25 ladies who’d go for this geek shit who aren’t fan-girls themselves. And I imagine that contingent would rather check out Twilight 3 or Scott Pilgrim.
Colin – D.Z. is here to remind Lexie that there’s a thin line between sublime and stupid.
Now, if we could get someone on here posting about underage girls to drive home the line between healthy libidos and pedophilia…
You guys are so, so wrong about Kick-Ass. Wait and see.
And, yes, Evan Rachel Wood does suck as an actress (did you catch her in True Blood??? Yikes!), plus she isn’t even in the top 30% of good looking women.
“Though that’s still generous, and it’ll be lucky to hit $55 million. ”
Well, now those of us in the real world who recognize DZ’s chief function as a negative barometer have a good guess for the opening weekend gross of ‘Kick-Ass’.
Gordn: Yes, you can be assured that it’ll beat TDK’s box office now and then be the second highest grossing film after Avatar.
It figures that you’d extrapolate a $55 million opening weekend to beating ‘Dark Knight’. Because you’re fucking stupid.
Gordon: No, I’m just making fun of your cocky attitude.
get fucked with a backsaw
It isn’t cockiness to state the simple fact that every prediction you made about ‘Avatar’ (and numerous other movies) was wrong, and that you’re ignoring the tracking evidence AGAIN to predict ‘Kick-Ass’ will do badly. You’ve also gone on record that ‘Robin Hood’ will beat ‘Iron Man 2′.
But, I’m cocky for pointing out that you’re continuing to act as if your predictions make sense. If that makes sense to anybody else out there, you’re probably fucking stupid too.
Gordn: I didn’t say Robin Hood would beat Iron man 2. I said it would probably be able to knock it off its perch on its second weekend. And Kick-Ass’ tracking only indicates it will do well with geek males, not teen girls, not women in their 20s, and not guys who flocked to Sin City and Wanted.
“Kick-Ass” ads are everywhere right now – I think it will do really, really well. Positive vibe from most corners.
The violence is really brutal in Kick-Ass I don’t see it doing well.
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/user/826918/reviews/
Gordon: On a related note, I seem to recall you got Avatar’s prospects wrong at the Oscars, too.
Colin: It’s not the violence that’s the issue, or Saw and Hostel wouldn’t make money. It’s the whole “in-the-know” comic book geek aesthetic which is the problem. That shit just never fucking sells, since it’s the equivalent of Hollywood movies which spoof movie-making.
Not particularly; I guessed every category is would win correctly [including cinematography, which few people got], but was wrong about Best Picture. The difference being, I can actually say that I was wrong. It doesn’t bother me. You, on the other hand, are unable to do that, which makes you laughable, and you’re wrong so often that you come off as stupid.
What makes that really funny, though, is that you weren’t right about the Oscars, because you made absolutely no predictions. I, on the other hand, correctly guessed the out-of-nowhere shocker that *nobody* else got, right here on these boards. You, on the other hand, have never been right about anything, ever.
Um, actually, I have been right, as I noted before. And winning a bet on cinematography is like guessing what Richard Kelly’s next project will be: No one cares. You lost where it counted, and thus you no longer have the juice to maintain your smug attitude.
The only example of being right you’ve ever had is ‘Jennifer’s Body’, when nobody disagreed with you because everybody in the world knew it would bomb. And, even so, nobody actually remembers you making the prediction and you’ve never shown a link to it.
As for the oscars, you have no say in the conversation because you didn’t have the balls to make ANY prediction. Your point that a person can only be wrong once is laughable coming from anybody and pure stupidity coming from you.
“And winning a bet on cinematography is like guessing what Richard Kelly’s next project will be: No one cares.”
First off, you’re wrong (of course); cinematography, year to year, is one of the hardest categories to predict and almost never goes to what the handicappers call the favorite. #2, also got screenplay which, again, was the surprise of the night. Nobody else got it. And I did. You, on the other hand, have never predicted anything correctly. Yet your smugness knows no bounds. Much like your stupidity.
Tell you what, I’ll go ya one better — since you say that being wrong means never make any more predictions, I’ll stop making predictions. Not much of a problem, since I don’t make box office predictions anyway.
However, what I will do is, every time *you* make one of your frequent stupid predictions, I’ll just remind you of your quote that once you’ve been wrong once (and you’ve been wrong several thousand times, and counting), you aren’t allowed to make predictions anymore. The only time I’ll make any predictions is the prediction that what you say is completely, obviously wrong.
Like the time you said that ‘A Single Man’ and ‘Crazy Heart’ would make more than 10% of ‘Avatar’ easily, much easier than ‘Avatar’ could ever make 10% of ‘Titanic’. Brilliant prediction that was; ‘Avatar’ did it in two days and the other two still haven’t done it.
Gordon: “The only example of being right you’ve ever had is ‘Jennifer’s Body’, when nobody disagreed with you because everybody in the world knew it would bomb.”
Not true that nobody disagreed with me, and not the only time I was right.
“you have no say in the conversation because you didn’t have the balls to make ANY prediction.”
Actually, I did with that Ebert contest thing. And I said Basterds wouldn’t win BP, no matter what happened with the nominations, and I was right. And for the record, I’m more right than you, ‘cus I also knew Avatar wouldn’t win BP, even if I didn’t get Hurt Locker.
“Your point that a person can only be wrong once is laughable coming from anybody and pure stupidity coming from you.”
You can be wrong as many times as you want, but you lose your license to gloat when you’re wrong in relation to the same topic as another participant.
“cinematography, year to year, is one of the hardest categories to predict and almost never goes to what the handicappers call the favorite.”
Yes, but again, the interest is generally low on these things.
“#2, also got screenplay which, again, was the surprise of the night.”
Not really, since those are usually “thanks for participating” prizes more than anything.
“Like the time you said that ‘A Single Man’ and ‘Crazy Heart’ would make more than 10% of ‘Avatar’ easily, ”
It made 10% of the grosses of the take when I made the prediction, so close enough.
“And for the record, I’m more right than you, ‘cus I also knew Avatar wouldn’t win BP, even if I didn’t get Hurt Locker. ”
So, wait, you predicted a movie that wasn’t “Avatar’, “Hurt Locker”, or ‘Basterds” to win, and you think that makes you more right than me?
“And I said Basterds wouldn’t win BP”
Actually, you said it would never be nominated for Best Picture, and you were completely wrong, so now, per your own logic, shut the fuck up.
Gordon: I’m more right than you, because I at least pegged their mind-set right, compared to you. As for Basterds, I said that, even if it were nominated, it still wouldn’t win.
And my own logic is that you can’t gloat about it. And I’m not.
you show no humility in light of the fact of always being wrong. It’s worse than gloating.
Again, you are always wrong, and that’s all I was pointing out. You made a prediction regarding ‘Kick-Ass’, and I made a prediction regarding your prediction. We’ll see which is correct and which one is you, the idiot.
And, again, I want to know what movie you thought was going to win if not those three, and how that would make you in any way correct.
“As for Basterds, I said that, even if it were nominated, it still wouldn’t win.”
So, as with ‘Jennifer’s Body’, you predicted something that nobody disagreed with [other than a brief flurry of "It could be the upset" from some pundits], and you think that masks the fact that you were wrong when you predicted it had no shot at a nomination, which many people *did* disagree with.
That’s the point; you bend everything you say to avoid the simple fact that you were wrong, AGAIN. Just like every prediction you’ve made, you were wrong.
Gordon: I actually thought Up would pull an upset. Not because it was good, but because it catered to the oldies better than anything there. And that’s bullshit that no one thought IB wouldn’t win. It was considered a bigger contender than Hurt Locker at one point.
“And that’s bullshit that no one thought IB wouldn’t win.”
Good grammar.
“It was considered a bigger contender than Hurt Locker at one point. ”
That’s not a lie, granted, but it shows how little attention you pay to either the articles that you read (which didn’t say that) or the things you respond to (where I specifically address that).
There was about a week or two where there were several notable pundits who said it would be the upset, yes. (“Upset”, by defintion, meaning that it’s not a bigger contender than the movie it’s upsetting.) However, few (if any) made ‘Basterds’ their final pick. It was a test balloon, and it died.
By the day, everybody knew that it was going to ‘Hurt Locker’ or ‘Avatar’. ‘Basterds’ and ‘Up In The Air’ were the only ones still in the conversation — but ‘Basterds’ had basically died, and ‘Up In The Air’ was dead on the vine.
In fact, worth pointing out, I’m the only person who correctly predicted that ‘Up In The Air’ would be entirely shut out. You, on the other hand, claimed that ‘Basterds’ *had* been completely shut out even after the Oscars were over and it clearly hadn’t.
And now you think that thinking ‘Up’ would win makes you right. It’s hilarious.
where is Mike onthe trailer? I am not see him.
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