Machete, Trejo, Alba, DeNiro, etc.

This is an allegedly illegal Machete trailer so watch it quickly before it gets yanked. My God…it’s hilarious. For the first time in a long time I’m actually looking forward to a low-rent Robert Rodriguez cheeseball film.

  • Gordn27

    Hey, right on, Jeff. I didn’t ever expect you to come around to this one. I have a feeling it’s gonna be the movie everybody’s convincing themselves ‘The Expendables’ will be (and what it *should* be).

    I was actually surprised at the ‘Predators’ trailer. I wasn’t thinking much about it, but it looks a lot glossier (that is, more like a real movie) than anything Rodriguez has been involved with in at least a decade.

  • http://www.rayderousse.com Ray DeRousse

    Amazing cast (except Lohan, of course …) and this trailer nails the tone of those films.

    What’s with the “Introducing Don Johnson” credit?

  • thevisceral

    Frank Lapidus lives.

  • Chase Kahn

    This looks 500 times more entertaining than The Expendables.

  • BurmaShave

    ah yes, illegal, that’ s why it says “special Cinco de Mayo” message at the beginning of it. Ray, I thought the Don Johnson credit was hilarious; He’s really never been a film presence, but certainly not in about 20 years.

  • Bass Ackwards

    Here’s a link to the original fake trailer attached to Grindhouse (though being youtube, its minus the hilarious “he gets the girls” par):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIV26nu24gw

    Makes me wonder if this is a trailer put out just for fun, with new actors inserted into the old trailer, or if the movie is going to make use of the stuff they filmed a few years ago for this fake trailer.

  • C is for cookie

    An old friend of mine dates a guy who sells bootleg dvds and ever since “Grindhouse” came out he says there have been dozens of latino customers who have asked him if he had that “Machete” movie on dvd.

    I have a feeling this could be a really big hit for Rodriguez.

  • Travis Crabtree

    I’m there.

    “Don Johnson” is the most porno movie name ever for a non porno movie actor.

  • kingofnails

    Seriously people? This looks like dreck. In hell they tie me to a chair and make me watch empty-headed Robert Rodriguez movies over and over and over again.

  • EdHavens

    It’s meant to look like dreck, Nails. That’s why it’s so fucking awesome!

  • Floyd Thursby

    Rodriquez should add “Banned in Arizona” at the end.

  • Jack South P.I.

    To think Robert De Niro once turned down Do the Right Thing and today regularly say yes to crap like this.

    How the mighty have fallen.

  • Gordn27

    “Makes me wonder if this is a trailer put out just for fun, with new actors inserted into the old trailer, or if the movie is going to make use of the stuff they filmed a few years ago for this fake trailer.”

    There’s a rumor going around that Rodriguez shot a substantial amount of footage at the time, intending it for the feature, and that the new footage is the stuff credited to the other director.

    Not that I really believe it, but I could almost believe it about RR.

  • Mark

    I wonder how many takes it took for De Niro to spit out that Cucaracha line. I’m guessing Rodriguez wanted a couple more, and De Niro said, “no, trust me, for this? you got it. next.”

  • EdHavens

    In the history of stupid statements ever made on HE, you, Jack South, have earned a place in the Top Ten.

    People change. The person Robert DeNiro was twenty-two years ago, when he turned down Do The Right Thing, is not the person he is today, just as the man who turned down Do The Right Thing isn’t the same person he was in 1966.

    Are you the same person you were twenty-two years ago?

  • Deathtongue_Groupie

    Great trailer… until Alba shows up.

  • MrTribeca

    “Great trailer… until Alba shows up.”

    …and then it becomes a terrific trailer!

    ALBA POWER

  • Mark

    Lohan is far interesting than Alba onscreen.

    Doesn’t everyone admit that if this thing is over 90 minutes, it’s a dealbreaker?

  • Jack South P.I.

    I’m honored to be in your top ten, Ed. You want to defend De Niro and his choices, be my guest.

  • Chase Kahn

    @ Mark: No question. Planet Terror felt like it was running out of gas after the hour mark.

  • Noah Cross

    Looks fun to me, but is there any doubt that what won JW over was the politics of the thing?

  • MartinBlank

    So is this the sort of flick that will make Jeff go “yawww”?

  • Josh Massey

    Is the character of Machete really the “illegal immigrant” example you’d want to make a political point on?

    “…he says there have been dozens of latino customers who have asked him if he had that “Machete” movie on dvd.”

    That’s part of the reason this movie won’t be a hit. I was a teacher in a 90% Hispanic, low-income school for years, and there wasn’t a big-budget movie the kids weren’t passing around after a week in theaters. Machete will probably break records for piracy.

  • gogocrank10

    This movie WILL be a hit, or at least open big, because as we get closer to opening the morons at Fox, CNN, et al. will build it up as a controversial political statement rather than a goof.

    “Tonight on the O’Reilly Factor: does a movie suggesting the assassination of a U.S. senator from Texas go too far?”

  • Krillian

    I agree it looks fun, but that Alba is the one downer in the cast. I can’t help but wonder why they don’t push this up into summer. August 20 doesn’t have anything noteworthy.

  • Mark

    gogocrank10; since when does controversy equal box office? Passion of the Christ not withstanding.

  • http://moviebob.blogspot.com/ THE MovieBob

    What I love is that Rodriguez more or less half-finished this over a year ago, but now thanks to Arizona is looks EVEN MORE like a quickie “hot button issue” exploitation movie. This literally looks like something a pissed-off Latino highschooler in Arizona thought up in study hall as a “fuck you” fantasy.

  • 115thDreamer

    Best part of trailer – “Introducing Don Johnson”….2nd Best part – when Cheech Marin says “…I’ll see what I can do”. I’m psyched for this – sure it’s dreck, but the film makers realize this and are embracing dreck with an affectioniate bear hug. If you’re going to go over the top, I say go way, way over….more fun that way.

  • Bobby Cooper Superior

    OT but man, I wish things had worked out differently for Jeff Fahey. He’s got that same coldblooded charm Martin Sheen had. Seems far more intelligent than the roles he takes, or, more likely, the roles offered for him to take. Still, BODY PARTS and THE LAWNMOWER MAN are both a lot of fun. It’s not too late for some gritty quasi-indie to give him another chance.

  • EdHavens

    You’ll note I wasn’t defending DeNiro’s choices, Jack, and this time, I will try to type really slow so you can keep up.

    As people grow older, people change. The Robert DeNiro who had won two Oscars before his 38th birthday has been on a real “one for them, one for me” spree after Raging Bull. A lot of shit studio films sprinkled with the occasional good film and the sometimes unfortunate work that should have worked but didn’t. But I’m sure, at 68, Mr. DeNiro isn’t too worried about his cinematic legacy any more.

  • Josh Massey

    I recently saw bits of Silverado, and couldn’t believe what 25 years had done to Jeff Fahey. Not that he’s a bad looking guy now, but he’s seen an Alec Baldwin-level transformatino.

  • LexG

    Alba is the world’s second or third most beautiful woman. Christ, some of you guys in 1961 would’ve said “Marilyn Monroe! Fuck, she’s the weak link in this cast, they should’ve hired someone who can act, like Bette Davis.”

    Like, are all male fanboys so asexual that they ACTUALLY CARE about Alba’s acting? (Which is perfectly fine by any standard.) She is HUMAN PERFECTION looks-wise, plus a sweet and sunny presence in everything with a great sense of humor about herself. You couldn’t ask for a more fun and eager actress for something like MACHETE. Like, yeah, sorry Turan Jr. I’m sure the SMOKING HOT HALF-MEXICAN GODDESS isn’t good enough for your stupid Rodriguez movie and the role should’ve gone to Kate Winslet with her giant ass and ham-ass pulled faces.

    Of course this looks fun and awesome… but it also looks EXACTLY like the trailer and general convoluted deal of Once Upon a Time in Mexico. Which I enjoyed just fine, as it delivered exactly what it promised, but somehow all the RR dorks seemed to be let down by that at the time.

    Also stoked because RR, like his buddy, is a huge-time foot guy, so with ALBA and LOHAN on board, I am excepting lots of fetishized lingerine. Michelle Rodriguez I find sexy, too, if a notch less so…

    Though gotta wonder what these goddess-like chicks were thinking when RR told them they scored big-time movie roles…. but they get to do sex scenes with DANNY TREJO. Christ, I’m wondering what Trejo was thinking. Probably “this is the greatest thing ever.”

    The whole movie is basically like Robert Jenkins somehow scoring a movie in 2011 where he’s scoring four-ways with Amanda Seyfried, Emma Roberts, and Megan Fox.

    How do I get into acting ASAP?

  • Sabina E

    can’t LexG take actresses seriously for once without talking about their bodies? Come on, man.

  • The Winchester

    “can’t LexG take actresses seriously for once without talking about their bodies? Come on, man.”

    That’s like asking Wells to laugh along with obnoxious hyenas or party alongside elephants. It’s totally against nature.

  • Jack South P.I.

    Ed, you are hammering me because I will not acknowledge your point that De Niro has changed over the last 20+ years. What you fail to see is that my original post bemoned this very fact. De Niro has changed SO MUCH in the last two decades that the majority of the films he appears in are dreck like this. Sure he made some bad movies here and there in his heyday but nothing like the roll he has been on for the last decade or so.

    What exactly are we fighting about again? I’m pretty sure we agree De Niro has been making some pretty bad movies lately. Your biggest gripe seems to be how I framed my argument. So disagree with me, fine, I can handle it. But your insults are not very interesting. That is time better used making an argument. Your tone poisons the well for those of us that are more interested in having a discussion rather than shouting insults.

  • Rich S.

    My favorite part of this trailer is that the Arizona stuff is so clearly shoehorned in. I’ll bet they leave it in the final product, dubbing in “Arizona” whenever necessary (even though most scenes were probably filmed in Texas). Classic.

  • Mark

    “Alba is the world’s second or third most beautiful woman.”

    Alba is more like the 19th most beautiful woman in any recent Victoria’s Secret spread. And who cares about seeing anyone ahead of her onscreen either. Being beautiful and owning the screen are mutually exclusive. Watch the original Fair Game for proof.

  • LexG

    Trust me, Alba was “owning the screen” in “Honey” and “Into the Blue.”

    Always amusing when Internet web dudes go after hot women. Who would you propose to play her role then, Mark? Whose “acting chops” are Globe Theatre-legit enough for YOU to properly put across the role of “cute eye candy chick in stupid B-movie”?

    Unlike 99% of the world, the lead actresses actually factor in my enthusiasm for a movie. One of those things no one admits because it doesn’t sound right, but 99% of men AND WOMEN do NOT go to see a movie based on the actress, and it plays no part in their decision to go. Male lead, story, genre, trailer, effects, all that stuff, sure. But for MOST PEOPLE the actress is just kinda… there.

    NOT ME. You throw Alba and Lohan in a movie, you are GUARANTEEING I will see it two or three times in a theater, and will absolutely buy the DVD. If I love an actress, like Alba or K-Stew or the Fox, I buy their movies on DVD without question.

    If this had two less-hot chicks than the MIGHTY pairing of Lindsay and Jessica, I’d be that much less enthused. Again, who can “act” who’s female? And do you really care? What, do you read Playboy magazine or Maxim and you can’t get aroused unless you see a copy of the girl’s college diploma? Of course, I know, no one here has any impure thoughts about women, ever, and you all respect them for their CRAFT. But, really, what instead of Lohan and Alba, who can ACT? Give me some names. You name two THESPIANS more appropriate for this silly movie, and I’d guarantee either their acting is no better or worse than Jessica’s, OR they’re two chicks who aren’t as hot.

    Always go with “hot.” NO ONE cares about female acting except gay men and asexual critics.

  • Mark

    Who? If you need the name of some talented eye candy who is not opposed to acting in well-executed schlock, look to Eva Mendes, Milla Jovivich, Olivia Wilde, Anna Farris, Megan Fox, etc. My main issue with the Alba casting is probably lack of due diligence. There’s literally 10,000 hotties in Hollywood dying for this part. We know that Alba won’t nail it, so why not take a chance on an unknown. It’s like Doug Collins continuing to get NBA coaching jobs. The results are already proven to be below average.

  • jjgittes

    Looks like crap. That’s it. Another one of the inside baseball – isn’t this great, nudge, nudge, get it things.

    Tiresome, to say the least.

  • LexG

    Mark, you might be alone in the world in find a WORLD OF ACTING DIFFERENCE between Alba and Olivia Wilde, Alba and Megan Fox, Alba and Anna Faris.

    Other than Mendes (who’s MY AGE), none of the women you mentioned are LATINA*, which I assume is what puts Alba ahead of Olivia Wilde when it comes to playing a Mexican.

    *For ultimate douche points, please imagine me saying LATINA in a super-thick spit-fire accent, just like every Hispanic chick ever who’s white as the Arctic snow and speaks in the polished tones of Hillary Clinton, then get to the word LLLLYLLLLAAA-teeeeeeeNA!” like they’re Pancho fucking Villa.

  • Sabina E

    Always go with “hot.” NO ONE cares about female acting except gay men and asexual critics.

    what fucking sexist bullshit.

  • LexG

    True sexist bullshit.

    Ask any straight man within earshot if he’d rather see Jessica Alba in a bikini for two hours, or Kate Winslet “acting” for two hours.

    Of course, he’ll say Alba, but then when the movies come out, he won’t pay money to see either one. Because men AND WOMEN do NOT go to see movies because of the actress. FACT.

  • Sabina E

    again, what bullshit.

    I’m always lining up at the box office on the opening night of any film that Angelina Jolie is starring in. I’m obsessed with her and I love her (as a celebrity and as an actress). I’ve also gone to see movies and rented DVDs because my favourite actresses were featured in it.

    that being said, I’m excited as fuck to see SALT.

    pull your head out of your arse. Just because you think this way doesnt mean other guys think the same as you, dude.

  • Ray DeRousse

    I hate to support LexG, but Alba is pretty damn hot. I thought her SIN CITY appearance was just about as hot as a woman gets onscreen. The black and white/sepia thing probably helped a bit, though.

  • MrTribeca

    Ray DeRousse – agreed. Right up there with Salma Hayek’s entrance in RR’s From Dusk Til Dawn.

  • bluefugue

    >How do I get into acting ASAP?

    Same way you get into directing. Whine about it on message boards.

  • bluefugue

    Alba’s gorgeous. I pretty much went “stop the presses!” when I saw her in an ad for Idle Hands, before I knew who she was.

    She’s not a terrible actress, but she always seems to wind up in bland stuff, Sin City being the once exception.

  • BurmaShave

    Lex, I’d take Winslet over Alba (Winslet happens to get naked a lot), but that’s just me. I’m almost certainly gay.

  • http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com Scott Mendelson

    LexG is right. Men do not go to movies because of the actress. The opposite is often true of women, which is yet another reason why it’s harder for actresses than actors. Women will flock to Twilight just to oogle Pattenson and/or Taylor, but few men will return the favor for the equally attractive Stewart.

    As for the trailer, I much prefer the original fake trailer. This one just looks too clean and polished, and it just feels like big movie stars goofing off in their own inside joke. Maybe its that too many of its cast members are still too famous and/or steadily working to legitimately appear in an exploitation picture like this. The joke works better with Jeff Fahey (or theoretically Tom Berenger or Billy Drago) than with real movie stars like Robert De Niro or Jessica Alba. The ‘introducing Don Johnson’ bit is a hoot, and I love the Steven Seagal cameo, but otherwise I think this may be better as an idea than an actual movie. De Niro is many things, but he cannot do this kind of comedy (Chris Walken would have killed in the role). Oddly enough, I was sure that the gun-toting nun was played by Julianne Moore until I saw Lohan’s onscreen credit. Weird.

  • BurmaShave

    Mendelson, Berenger was busy with INCEPTION. So they got DeNiro. Crazy world.

  • http://scottalanmendelson.blogspot.com Scott Mendelson

    I noticed that, but if the appearance of special guest star Tom Berenger means the same thing in Inception that it means on television procedurals, Nolan just dropped a massive spoiler.

  • dinovelvet

    Yeah Deniro looks like he doesn’t quite “work” in this. Needs more ham. Imagine what Pacino would have done here, in 100% full on Heat/Scent of a woman random screaming mode!

  • BurmaShave

    Haha I hope INCEPTION is THE MATRIX meets SVU

  • DeafBrownTrashPunk

    can’t LexG take actresses seriously for once without talking about their bodies? Come on, man.

  • DeafBrownTrashPunk

    Always go with “hot.” NO ONE cares about female acting except gay men and asexual critics.

    what fucking sexist bullshit.

  • DeafBrownTrashPunk

    again, what bullshit.

    I’m always lining up at the box office on the opening night of any film that Angelina Jolie is starring in. I’m obsessed with her and I love her (as a celebrity and as an actress). I’ve also gone to see movies and rented DVDs because my favourite actresses were featured in it.

    that being said, I’m excited as fuck to see SALT.

    pull your head out of your arse. Just because you think this way doesnt mean other guys think the same as you, dude.

  • LexG

    ALBA POWER.

    Really in a major Alba mood lately, but something tells me that Michelle Rodriguez (aka M-ROD) would be REALLY, really into me. Bet I’m her type.

  • KRush

    This was a fantastic trailer; it reminded me of the Kirk Lazarus / Tobey Maguire trailer for “Satan’s Alley”. A great trailer, but I can’t imagine it being watchable for more than five minutes. Too many people doing caricatures of themselves. Tropic Thunder got away with it because it was pretty much limited to McConaghy (sp?) and Cruise (his best role in a long time) spoofing themselves. But Machete would be a mess. Just be happy with the trailer.

  • LexG

    Not to repeat myself, but it’s pretty much the same trailer (and movie) as Once Upon a Time in Mexico, only after just dialing that up on YouTube, the comedown in RR’s visual palette from seven years ago is pretty noticeable.

    Just because he CAN do everything in his backyard in Austin and then “chop it” in his game room doesn’t mean he should. A little professional sheen would’ve put this over the top. I like the guy fine, but gets a little annoying to pay to see someone’s home movies.

    Ah, fuck it, I’m just mad that his “home movies” feature Lindsay Lohan, and mine feature me doing a video diary of my hair loss.

  • econeywaaa

    As soon as I saw DeNiro in “Rocky and Bullwinkle” I said to myself, “OK, the guy who has given us some of the finest performances in film is going for the money now..so what?”

    Looks like crap, but fun crap. I can’t wait.

  • LexG

    58 comments and nobody’s noted the Escape From New York replica shot at :30?

    Also, wasn’t the “introducing” gag done by Soderbergh already?

  • DeeZee

    Alba nearly kills it for me, but overall, this seems like Kick-Ass without the pretentious bullshit and desperate cry for attention-which is why it’ll be downgraded by the geek contingent.

    Gordon: Predators is going to suck as long as Brody’s the lead, and Rothman’s gonna force it to be PG-13.

    Cookie: I see it more as a good home video hit, but it’d be interesting if it could hold its own against RE 4.

    gogocrank: That’d be ironic, considering FOX is also distributing Machete.

    Mark: Dogma was one of Kev’s few wide-release hits.

    Lex: Alba’s acting blows. She’s never been hired because she could play the part well. And at least Monroe didn’t pretend otherwise. As for the sex scenes, the actresses will probably still do that on-screen double/no nudity shit. And who the hell buys Maxim anymore when people upload the pics for free online? Oh, and Megan Fox isn’t Latina, but she’s got Native American blood. Surprised you’re hot for Rodriguez, though, cus her body’s sexier than her face.

    Scott: I’m still more hyped about Machete than Macgruder. But if the former film also suffers from “best parts in the trailer” syndrome, I’ll be more disappointed, too.

    .

  • DeeZee

    Er, MacGruber.

  • Ray DeRousse

    @ DeeZee – Strange, because I think Michelle Rodriguez is kinda sexy. And I say that as a guy who’s not into chicks eating out other chicks.

  • CitizenKanedforChewingGum

    “If I love an actress, like Alba or K-Stew or the Fox, I buy their movies on DVD without question.”

    Your DVD collection must look like shit.

    “NO ONE cares about female acting except gay men”

    This coming from a guy who admits to actually seeing Honey and Into the Blue in theaters (and presumably purchasing it on disc later)?? What is your deal with Kate Winslet, anyway? This is like at least the third time I have seen you slag her Out of the Blue (alternate title on that Alba pic?). How can you watch a great film like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and not marvel out how much better of an actress she is than 90% of her generation? It’s the big feet, isn’t it? ;)

    I will agree with you that the casting of Alba and Lohan is dead-on for this sort of flick. You’re not going to cast the people in Machete based on some sort of Stanislavski devotion to their craft (yes, De Niro is in it, but he’s clearly not in the same place he was 15 years ago, plus I think he’s appearing in a “look, can you believe we got Bobby in on this, too” kinda way), it’s more about having a sort of a campy, cultish appeal and/or a strong, fetishized screen presence. Rodriguez did almost the same thing with his motley crue of actors in Grindhouse, which I think this trailer resembles a lot more on the surface than OUaTIM (I think the reason that movie slightly disappointed people, myself included, is that it was actually attempting to succeed on a level of ambition and seriousness — just look at that Leone-esque title! — that none of his other movies had really even hinted at).

    Anyway, this trailer looks great to me. Has a real fast-paced, off-the-cuff, mid-90s Rodriguez vibe, which is perfect for me because I pretty much prefer his work on Desperado and From Dusk Till Dawn better than just about everything he’s done short of Sin City — which was arguably more of a triumph of Frank Miller, just adapted perfectly for the screen.

    Agree that it looks waaaaaaay better than The Expendables at its own game. Also agree it should have a August release date to capture that late-summer, back-to-college genre window. I’m not sure this movie would ever be a “big earner,” but I’m not convinced that releasing this in the middle of autumn is a smart move, even from a counter-programming perspective.

  • CitizenKanedforChewingGum

    “Mark: Dogma was one of Kev’s few wide-release hits.”

    Clerks 2 and Chasing Amy were actually much stronger returns on investment.

  • Movie Watcher

    I actually laughed out loud.

  • gogocrank10

    Belatedly: this’ll be a hit in that sense that, at around $20 mil, and with that cast and level of hot button buzz/stupidity, I’d be shocked if it didn’t make its budget back and then some. RR might as well be printing his own pesos.

  • frankbooth

    “And I say that as a guy who’s not into chicks eating out other chicks.”

    What kind of guy is that, exactly?

  • jesse

    Count me as someone who absolutely fucking LOVES Once Upon a Time in Mexico. It’s my favorite of the Mexico trilogy and probably my favorite Rodriguez film overall: it’s got plenty of awesome Banderas/Hayek running and shooting, plus a bigger scope and an amazing awesome crazy underplayed Depp performance that really hits the spot. That movie rules. It has a little more serious aspiration than the earlier movies, but it’s also great pulp. Machete looks like the low-budge version, but it’s fine that Machete is, if anything, a visual regression for Rodriguez. First, I don’t think he directed the whole thing — it sounds like they took the footage from the trailer shoot, planned a full movie around it, and then Rodriguez got his right-hand man to actually shoot said movie. But that kinda works here, because this movie actually looks really cheap and pieced-together, which makes sense for a tongue-in-cheek grindhouse-y movie.

    Also, Lex, Alba is fine and I’m totally psyched that she’s in this movie; if anything she should be doing more silly fun genre stuff like this. But Winslet doesn’t “pull faces” at all. You pretty much conflate any female acting with some kind of campy late-period Meryl Streep drag show because it makes for a better story but I doubt you actually believe it. Also, Winslet is foxy.

    Oh, and yeah, Anna Faris is a way, way better actress than Jessica Alba. Faris is funny; I don’t find Alba as terrible as most people (hot girls do tend to get characterize as wooden; I never thought ScarJo was such a bad actress, either) but I wouldn’t say she has much presence. Megan Fox’s performance in Jennifer’s Body is more interesting than anything Alba has done so far.

  • DeeZee

    Kane: Clerks 2 was released on double the theaters of Dogma, so it wasn’t as profitable.

    And Amy never went “wide”.

  • Gordn27

    Kaned – this is DZ; do you really think he has the basic intelligence to understand “return on investment”?

  • Chinaski94

    DZ

    Kick Ass no longer belongs in your “win” line. 73 million versus your 70 million prediction.

    Granted, it’s the closest you’ve come to a win but you’re still taking the loss on it.

  • Gordn27

    whoops, combined with last week, when he showed us proof that nobody was arguing against him about ‘Jennifer’s Body’ (besides Lex), I think DZ just lost the only two times he was ever right in his entire life within a week!

  • DeeZee

    China: I still predicted it would make under $20 million opening weekend, and that it’d still bomb, so…

  • Bob Violence

    so eat the peanuts out of my shit you fucking freak

  • Gordn27

    “I still predicted it would make under $20 million opening weekend”

    Show us a link to a thread where you said that and didn’t hedge your bet by saying “but it might get as much as $30″.

  • Chinaski94

    We’re at a baseball game between the Cubs and Dodgers, DZ. I know you’ve never played a sport in your life, but stick with me.

    We sit down and you say-

    “Dodgers are gonna lose. And they’ll score under ten runs.”

    I say “I don’t care how many runs they score, I know they’re gonna win this game.”

    We debate, you make a dozen, idiotic predictions about this one game. “Kemp will have less than five hits”, “at least one guy will strike out” etc…

    The Dodgers end up winning, but they score 9 runs.

    Yes, you got a couple of your various predictions correct. But you lost the big one, which is all anybody gives a shit about. You still have a perfectly wrong record.

    So…

  • Chinaski94

    DZ

    Do you have a prediction for Iron Man 2?

    Let’s hear it. Total worldwide box office.

    Go!

  • DeeZee

    Gordon: “Show us a link to a thread where you said that”

    I said it’d be lucky to make even $20 million when someone suggested it would open at $25 million.

    China: No one who gambles bets on the number of runs a team makes. As for Iron Man 2, it won’t do TDK numbers, but I’ll give it about $580 mil, more or or less.

  • Gordn27

    So, wait, you said that ‘Iron Man 2′ was going to drop off quickly and ‘Robin Hood’ would make just as much as ‘Iron Man’ — does that mean you think ‘Robin Hood’ is going to make $600 mil too?

    “I said it’d be lucky”

    That is not a link and, again, as everybody else is pointing out, you hedge everything you say with all sorts of bullshit extra things built in.

  • Gordn27

    “No one who gambles bets on the number of runs a team makes.”

    So, gambling is yet another thing you know nothing about? For just *one* example, look into what an “over/under” is.

  • DeeZee

    Gordon: I said Iron Man 2 would lose its second weekend #1 slot to Robin Hood. Dunno and don’t care about its total, but I doubt it’ll be profitable, unless Crowe still means something overseas.

  • Gordn27

    So at what point did you boost your prediction from “less than X-Men 3″ to “Exactly as much as the first Iron Man”?

  • Chinaski94

    “No one who gambles bets on the number of runs a team makes.”

    Actually, they do. And you still missed the point. You were wrong on Kick Ass. Another fail for you.

    “As for Iron Man 2, it won’t do TDK numbers, but I’ll give it about $580 mil, more or or less.”

    We will ignore the more or less. 580 world wide. We’ll see how this goes.

  • DeeZee

    China: I’m wrong that it’s a bomb?

  • Chinaski94

    Yes. It’s not a hit. Not even close. But it’s already doubled it’s budget in WW gross.

    Now, this is where you’ll bring up P&A. But you don’t know how much that was. Even if it was the same as the budget, that puts it at 60 million for budget + P&A.

    At that rate, it still made a profit.

    A bomb is not the same thing as a disappointment. It is absolutely a disappointment.

    So all of these terms are a bit subjective. What isn’t subjective is this:

    You said it would top out at 70 million world wide. It has exceeded that total.

    Therefore, yes, you were wrong. You have zero victories and many losses in your short career as a box office prognosticator.

  • DeeZee

    China: “But you don’t know how much that was.”

    I do know acquisition of K-A was at least $50 million. So, unless P+A is included in that mix, this fucker was a bomb.

    “Even if it was the same as the budget, that puts it at 60 million for budget + P&A. At that rate, it still made a profit. ”

    Not a real profit, since LG has to split costs with theaters.

    “You said it would top out at 70 million world wide. It has exceeded that total.”

    Barely.

    “A bomb is not the same thing as a disappointment.”

    Please. If it were a disappointment, it’d top out at $90 million and still be able to hold its own against The Losers, Furry Vengeance and Back-Up Plan.

    But it’s a bomb, because it did not make any real money, even though it should have, given its ‘low” budget.

    “You have zero victories”

    That’s not true, either.

  • Chinaski94

    “I do know acquisition of K-A was at least $50 million. So, unless P+A is included in that mix, this fucker was a bomb.”

    It wasn’t a bomb. Just wasn’t a hit.

    “You said it would top out at 70 million world wide. It has exceeded that total.”

    Barely. ”

    Yes, and if the Dodgers win by one run over the Cubs the Dodgers still win. There isn’t a section in the box scores for “barely”

    “Please. If it were a disappointment, it’d top out at $90 million and still be able to hold its own against The Losers, Furry Vengeance and Back-Up Plan.

    But it’s a bomb, because it did not make any real money, even though it should have, given its ‘low” budget. ”

    No, it’s an R-rated movie that mostly teenagers would be interested in. It’s a disappointment, not a bomb.

    “That’s not true, either. ”

    You’re only two “victories” were KA and JB. I’ve proven both of them wrong.

    And your Iron Man 2 prediction ain’t looking so hot either.

  • DeeZee

    China: “It wasn’t a bomb. Just wasn’t a hit.”

    It was a bomb for what they obviously expected it to do and what they probably paid for it.

    “Yes, and if the Dodgers win by one run over the Cubs the Dodgers still win. There isn’t a section in the box scores for “barely””

    The difference is the Dodgers are actually winners by the rules of the game, while K-A is not. It may have beaten my prediction, but not enough to make me look totally inaccurate.

    “No, it’s an R-rated movie that mostly teenagers would be interested in. It’s a disappointment, not a bomb.”

    It’s a bomb because those same teenagers would rather see a cartoon dragon movie, Nightmare On Elm Street, and Iron Man 2.

    “You’re only two “victories” were KA and JB. I’ve proven both of them wrong. ”

    No you haven’t, and I got three victories: Grindhouse, JB, and Avatar winding down sooner than Titanic. As for Iron Man 2, wait until next weekend.

  • Chinaski94

    “It was a bomb for what they obviously expected it to do and what they probably paid for it. ”

    Nope, it’s a subjective term and that’s why it doesn’t count as your prediction. The 70 million is your prediction, and you were wrong.

    “The difference is the Dodgers are actually winners by the rules of the game, while K-A is not. It may have beaten my prediction, but not enough to make me look totally inaccurate.”

    This is actually the most sensible thing you’ve ever written. Which is why I mentioned that you came really close to being right on this one. But technically you were wrong.

    “No you haven’t, and I got three victories: Grindhouse, JB, and Avatar winding down sooner than Titanic. As for Iron Man 2, wait until next weekend.”

    JB you were wrong. Avatar you made about a thousand predictions on. I don’t care about that one. The main prediction about Avatar was about as wrong as wrong gets. I don’t remember a Grindhouse prediction. Provide a link and I will investigate.

    Yeah, I will wait until next week for IM2. But you’ll still be wrong.

  • DeeZee

    “Nope, it’s a subjective term and that’s why it doesn’t count as your prediction. The 70 million is your prediction, and you were wrong.”

    Bullshit. Waterworld made its money back, and no one called it a “disappointment”.

    “But technically you were wrong. ”

    Not really, since it didn’t significantly top my prediction.

    “JB you were wrong.”

    So JB was a hit?

    “I don’t remember a Grindhouse prediction. ”

    I said it was gonna be that year’s Snakes on a Plane.

  • Chinaski94

    “Bullshit. Waterworld made its money back, and no one called it a “disappointment”. ”

    Kick Ass has different circumstances than Waterworld.

    “Not really, since it didn’t significantly top my prediction.”

    But it did top it. So that means your prediction was wrong. And if you follow logic, that means you were wrong.

    “So JB was a hit?”

    No, it wasn’t. Go back to the thread where we were talking about JB. I’m not going to rehash that debate here. I proved you wrong on that thread.

    “I said it was gonna be that year’s Snakes on a Plane. ”

    Give me a link so I can read exactly what you said, and what others were saying. This might count as your first and only win if you’re telling the truth.

  • Gordn27

    “I do know acquisition of K-A was at least $50 million.”

    I like how you later realize, oh wait, you don’t know that, and then hedge it with a “probably”.

    In fact, the Internet, as per usual, exaggerating everything, put $50 mil as the high mark, not the law mark, so no, it did not cost “at least $50 mil” to acquire.

    “and I got three victories: Grindhouse, JB, and Avatar winding down sooner than Titanic.”

    Jennifer’s Body you proved you were “right” against nobody, and ‘Avatar’ was the movie you guaranteed would make less than $200 mil. You belatedly decided that as long as it lasted less time in the theaters than ‘Titanic’, you were proven right, even though nobody had ever said that it would last as long as ‘Titanic, and multiple people pointed out why it would’ve been quite literally impossible for the movie to stay in theaters for more than six months.

    “As for Iron Man 2, wait until next weekend.”

    Yes, even though it’s mathematically certain to beat DZ’s prediction, he will refuse to admit it until it does. And then he’ll spend the next two weeks saying “It only barely beat my prediction”, as if it isn’t still out and earning money.

  • Gordn27

    Chin – we’re going to just accept “Waterworld made its money back”, are we? Even though it was literally nowhere near making its money back, even without P&A?

    well, okay.

  • Chinaski94

    Gordon,

    It was such an odd comparison I didn’t feel the need to point out what a disaster Waterworld was.

    But you’re right, that is one of the biggest bombs of all time.

  • DeeZee

    China: “But it did top it. So that means your prediction was wrong. And if you follow logic, that means you were wrong.”

    Not really, since it had nothing to do with the film actually doing that well, as much as it had to do with the geeks trying to make it look like a success by seeing it past its expiration date.

    “Go back to the thread where we were talking about JB. I’m not going to rehash that debate here. I proved you wrong on that thread.”

    You proved me wrong when I said horror-comedies don’t normally do that well, with the possible exception of Zombieland?

    cough.

    Gordon: “I like how you later realize, oh wait, you don’t know that, and then hedge it with a “probably”.”

    It’s based on semi-official reporting from THR.

    “Jennifer’s Body you proved you were “right” against nobody,”

    Actually, just about everyone over-hyping the hell out of Fox and Cody.

    “even though nobody had ever said that it would last as long as ‘Titanic,”

    So why were they calling it the next Titanic?

    “and multiple people pointed out why it would’ve been quite literally impossible for the movie to stay in theaters for more than six months.”

    TDK stayed that long in theaters.

  • Chinaski94

    “Not really, since it had nothing to do with the film actually doing that well, as much as it had to do with the geeks trying to make it look like a success by seeing it past its expiration date.”

    I reject this for two reasons. One, you can’t prove it. Two, it doesn’t make any sense.

    “You proved me wrong when I said horror-comedies don’t normally do that well, with the possible exception of Zombieland?”

    Go back to the thread where it was being discussed.

    That wasn’t a concrete prediction on Grindhouse. Doesn’t count for shit.

    “Actually, just about everyone over-hyping the hell out of Fox and Cody. ”

    Not on HE they weren’t. You said you were the only one on HE that didn’t think JB would be a hit. You then provided a link to prove this. The problem was, the link proved the opposite. Almost nobody on HE thought JB was going to be a hit. You flat out lied.

    “So why were they calling it the next Titanic? ”

    Yeah, why would they call it the next Titanic? No character in Avatar was named Rose. There wasn’t an iceberg in Avatar as far as I could tell.

    Your prediction on Avatar was laughably, horrendously, historically wrong.

  • Chinaski94

    And your latest prediction, for Iron Man 2, is looking like yet another loss. By my count, if Iron Man 2 can squeeze out another 260 million, your record will be 0-5. Not counting Grindhouse as a win or a loss because you didn’t make a concrete prediction. Calling it this years Snakes On a Plane could have been about something entirely different than box office.

    So I have:

    Inglourious Basterds

    Avatar (you were so wrong on this one it should count for two losses)

    Jennifer’s Body

    Kick Ass

    Possibly Iron Man 2

    Any others?

  • Gordn27

    “since it had nothing to do with the film actually doing that well”

    Yeah, Chin, ‘Kick-Ass’ grossing more than DZ predicted had NOTHING to do with ‘Kick-Ass’ actually grossing more than DZ predicted it would.

    “You proved me wrong when I said horror-comedies don’t normally do that well, with the possible exception of Zombieland?”

    No, that was your explanation after the fact (since ‘Zombieland’ hadn’t come out yet; your actual prediction that “horror comedies never do well” was disproven by ‘Zombieland’, so you’re right, that’s actually 0 for 6). You were proven wrong because you claimed that people were arguing that JB would do well, and they weren’t.

    “It’s based on semi-official reporting from THR. ”

    Really? I’m assuming you mean The Hollywood Reporter, right? Well, here’s what they have to say:

    “Kick-Ass” was acquired by Lionsgate for North American distribution for just mid-teen millions.”

    There you go, wrong again.

    “So why were they calling it the next Titanic? ”

    I have no idea who “they” is, but surely the fact that it was the new Cameron movie and out-grossed ‘Titanic’ would explain that sufficiently. Or possibly being the only movie to be #1 for more than 5 weeks since ‘Titanic’.

    “TDK stayed that long in theaters.”

    That is certainly true. However, as previously pointed out to you, ‘Avatar’ could not stay in theatres for six months or more simply because there are a limited number of 3-D theaters in the country and the screens were already booked. That is a simple fact. There was no legal way for ‘Avatar’ to stay in theaters for six months. It lost too many screens.

  • Gordn27

    Chin – a few that come to mind off hand:

    – predicting that ‘A Single Man’ would gross $20 million at least

    – predicting that ‘Crazy Heart’ would gross $20 mil faster than ‘Avatar’ could make $200 mil

    – predicting that ‘The Princess and the Frog’ and ‘Nine’ would both fail to gross three times their opening weekend; more generally, he argued that “grossing three times your opening weekend” was not a trend proven by the last ten years of December releases (there’s literally one exception and he never found it; his idea of an exception was ‘Lord of the Rings’, which did anywhere from 6x to 10x, depending which one he meant).

    – predicting that ‘Sherlock Holmes’, ‘Alvin and the Chipmunks’, ‘The Wolf-Man’, ‘The Book of Eli’, ‘It’s Complicated’, ‘Leap Year’, ‘Youth in Revolt’, ‘When In Rome’, and ‘Edge of Darkness’ (among others) would all open stronger than ‘Avatar’.

    – predicting that ‘The Princess and the Frog’ and ‘Nine’ would not gross at least three times their opening weekend figures [more generally, denying that this trend has been true of every single December release in the last decade except one].

    – stating that horror-comedies always fail (regarding Jennifer’s Body) the week before ‘Zombieland’ was released

    – predicting ‘Fantastic Mr. Fox’ would be a success (and still arguing that it was one)

    – predicting that ‘Alice in Wonderland’, ‘How to Train Your Dragon’, and ‘Clash of the Titans’ would all fail because people were tired of 3-D. ‘Dragon’ he specifically said would gross less than ‘Monsters vs. Aliens’ (it didn’t). ‘Clash of the Titans’, he is still arguing as a bomb despite it being the highest grossing April release of all time.

    And, of course:

    – predicting that ‘Inglorious Basterds’ would get no nominations for the Oscars and then, when it got numerous one, predicting it wouldn’t win anything and then, at the end of the night, gloating that it had been “entirely shut out”.

  • Chinaski94

    Wow. I was really only aware of a couple of those.

  • Gordn27

    dammit, that post got fucked up and I had to re-write it, so I accidentally wrote that one thing twice in it. That seems pretty silly.

    But, yeah, I was shocked when you said he was 0-5 … i’m pretty sure he’s worse than 0-5 just in 2010 alone. I bet Kaned has some examples that I don’t remember.

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