Funny
From a Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight posting on the N.Y. Times site this evening at 6:33 pm, called “Sarah Palin’s Nomination Chances: A Reassessment.”
From a Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight posting on the N.Y. Times site this evening at 6:33 pm, called “Sarah Palin’s Nomination Chances: A Reassessment.”
Sarah Palin = Barack Obama’s only shot at reelection.
I ask again — who is the formidable Republican dazzler who will beat him? There’s no one right now except Romney, and he was thoroughly de-dazzled in ’08. There’s no one.
Chris Cristie can actually speak without a teleprompter, Marco Rubio has a belief system other than himself, and most of the other GOP possibilities actually allow their college transcripts to be viewed, something the “smartest Potemkin Village in the world TM” spends millions to keep secret. Kind of makes you wonder……It will all come down to the economy.
Like Republicans nationwide are going to vote for a guy named “Chris Cristie”. Come on.
The Republican rank and file won’t go anywhere NEAR Romney… since that socialist health care plan of Barack Obama’s is essentially… Mitt Romney’s plan from a few years back, mandate and all. (Not to mention the more fundamental issue that his dearest principles seem to change depending on what day of the week it is.)
After the events of the last week in New Jersey — i.e., “Sorry, Governor Christie can’t deal with the blizzard — he didn’t want to miss his vacation in Florida” — count him out for 2012. He’ll be in better shape come 2016, but right now, it’s hard to sell your experience as governor when everyone you govern thinks you’re a worthless bastard, including NJ Republicans.
Marco Rubio is brown. Not happening, thanks for playing.
Latest buzz is all about Huckabee — he’s polling ahead of everyone else (though let’s be honest — two-years might as well be 20 in political time)… he’s a religious conservative who nevertheless has some left-leaning views (like cap-and-trade)… he plays the part of “moderate” (see his friendly Daily Show appearances), which can help him pick up independent support… so yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run the gauntlet.
But here’s hoping for Palin. The entertainment value alone would be… something else.
Christie and Rubio would never make it out of the primaries. Republicans always say whatever the flavor of the month is when you ask who in their party can defeat Obama, but they ignore the party’s tendency to nominate the ‘next in line’. And that’s Romney.
I wouldn’t bet against Bob McDonnell in 2016 though.
It’ll be Romney. He’s been the GOP choice for ’12 ever since he dropped out in ’08. That, and he’s the one with the money. Huckabee has had trouble raising money and he’s a phony through and through, who talks moderate or hard right whichever suits the occasion. He could easily be chewed up in a debate with his previous positions as Arkansas governor.
Ditto the points about Christie. He wouldn’t run while he’s an unpopular incumbent governor.
Palin’s polling is below Gingrich. Her dry run was Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, when the tea party threw away a race that was within grasp with a moderate Republican, but doomed to failure with a previous loser. And as with O’Donnell, you can expect Rove and the GOP leadership to do everything they can to sabotage her from getting the nomination.
I have a hunch that most of the potential new faces in the GOP will wait until 2016. No one wants to be cast in the Bob Dole role for 2012.
No One will beat Obama. The economy will get better and the Republicans will be obstructionist dicks making American’s pissed at them. The thing Obama has that is really important is the people really like him as a person. They’re iffy about the policies (but a lot of that has to do with the mood of the country). Either way, they think he’s a good guy. If they see him trying to get things done and Republicans blocking that, Americans will turn on them.
Also, Romeny (who seems like an actual rational human being) is about charismatic as wet cardboard.
And something to remember, which has been pointed out, is that Reagan got “Morning in America” by returning unemployment to “only” 7%, approximately what it was when he was sworn in.
It’s going to be Romney.
The only thing that kept Romney from being the nominee last time (i.e. he was “blocked” from “escaping” the primaries) was the Evangelicals’ bigotry against a Mormon. People have tried to spin it a hundred ways so it sounds less “mean,” but that’s what it came down to: Jesusland dominates Republican primaries, and Romney wasn’t the right “kind” of Christian; and there was nothing he say or even IMPLY to change their minds.
But this time, he has the ability to counter that bigotry with STRONGER bigotry. “He” (read: his campaign) has the ability to go to Jesusland and “say” (read: imply bluntly yet abstractly enough to deny it) “Okay, folks, what scares you MORE? Me, the Mormon… or Obama, The Secret MUSLIM!!!???”
That’s not to say that he can win the actual election (to anyone not pre-sold on The Right, he “looks like” a villain and Obama “looks like” a hero; plus his own record neuters his ability to attack Health Care, bailouts, etc) but barring a sea-change he’s the nominee, probably with one of the Teabagger kids as a veep.
The problem isn’t whether Romney can win the election (he probably can’t, but he has a better shot than the other names we know), but whether he can win the primaries. And he can’t. the Republicans in 2012 aren’t going to have their standard unity, because there will two main power blocks vying for the future of the party. The fiscal conservatives with money, sure, they like him, but the religious nuts? No way. And the tea party / libertarians aren’t going to like the healthcare plan he put into place.
The people who like him are the ones who are most willing to compromise. They don’t care who they support as long as the person they support takes care of them (hell, they even support Democrats if the Democrats are obviously going to win, and then those Democrats take care of them too). The religious people and the tea partiers are the ones who won’t compromise and, thus, won’t vote for Romney.
What Mr F. said, Palin running would be awesome entertainment. Tina Fey wuld have a field day. “I can see Russia from my porch!!”
America will not elect a fat president. Romney looks like a slick used car salesman, plus he was using illegal immigrants and he didn’t even know it. Rubio? Republicans think that will help them with hispancis, but he’s Cuban and they usually vote republican. The economy will be better a year from now and Obama will be reelected.
4thgrade: “The economy will get better ”
That’s questionable, especially if gas prices and insurance rates go up before enough people can afford ‘em.
“and the Republicans will be obstructionist dicks making American’s pissed at them. ”
If Obama was better at promoting his agenda, I could see that happening; but he keeps fumbling and letting the Republicans win the argument. And while I’m sure they like him personally, his star has faded with him not living up to the hype. He’s going to have to once again work to build his image to separate himself from his opponents.
Just curious: Is anyone who’s commented here a Republican? I am, and when I come to movie-related sites where politics are discussed, it’s usually Democrats talking to each other. It’s always fun to read the rampant speculation. After more than two years of stoking the Sarah Palin fears, you guys are now “reassessing.” Let me know what you do next. I need to follow your lead. You guys have it all figured out. Especially that Obama fellow. He’s just as great as you guys said he’d be. Turns out that the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all way up for the year, while jobs saw 0% growth. But I guess that’s what you get with a president who cares more about Wall Street than Main Street.
Discman, I hope Palin runs. Can you imagine the debates? It would be a massacre. And who would Palin’s VP choice? Ask yourself this: Imagine McCain was elected.
What Mr F. said, Palin running would be awesome entertainment. Tina Fey wuld have a field day. “I can see Russia from my porch!!”
Chris Cristie’s comes off as thug – when he’s not vanishing into the Magic Kingdom. Say what you will that he couldn’t have really done anything different in NJ – the guy sent that positive message of “Having a Wonderful Time – Sucks to Be You.”
Why shouldn’t hardcore Jesus nuts not have a reason to distrust Mormons? They’ve got a whole extra Bible with Jesus visiting Ohio.
Huckabee is also damaged goods. He pardoned a guy based on becoming a Born Again Christian – later on the guy kills a bunch of cops. Huckabee also referred to kids with pre-existing conditions as wrecked cars that don’t deserve to be insured. And he’s whined about not getting the attention Sarah Palin gets.
@Discman: Obama may not be the messiah but he’s ever so slightly better than the monkey that was in office from 2000 to 2008.
The idea of Sarah Palin in the White House, in any capacity, scares me to death.
markj: Obama has moved to embrace “the monkey’s” policies on detainees and terrorism to the point where his policies in that area are nearly identical to “the monkey’s.” If this is the way Obama is going, I don’t fear his re-election. But if you bought into his campaign rhetoric, maybe you should.
Movie Watcher: I think about that scenario every day. Couldn’t possibly be worse than what we’ve seen since 2008.
I hope Sarah Palin gets elected. This country is no longer capable of producing great leaders so let’s just go with the one who’ll be the most entertaining as the whole shit house goes up in flames.
@Bobby,
Any other year I’d agree with you. But remember: The last time Romney ran, most Republicans thought the worst they’d have to worry about was Hillary.
Do not underestimate just HOW MUCH Obama – even as toothless as he’s turned out to be – uniquely terrifies Republican primary voters. He’s black, he has a foriegn name, he has NO tangible connection to all the “traditional” stuff they hold sacrosanct, they “suspect” he’s a Muslim from Kenya, etc. If that holds, they’ll go for the guy who can win over the ideological favorite; plus Romney will snag one of the bagger-babies for a running mate and shore them up.
“Discman, I hope Palin runs. Can you imagine the debates? It would be a massacre.”
What makes you think that? She had VP debates in ’08 and did fine with her base. Such is the objective strategic GENIUS of right-wing might, like it or not, that a Palin or O’Donnell can say or do LITERALLY ANYTHING, and the Right has so persuasively laid out their case for media bias, that in ANY SCENARIO EVER, Republican voters will always empathize with their candidates as being picked on, prejudiced against, or given short shrift.
Not that she ever would, but Palin could get up in a presidential debate and drunkenly slur 17 straight minutes of Mad Mel Gibson-worthy invective, and she WOULD NOT LOSE ONE. SINGLE. VOTE. Her fans would sooner believe that it was the Liberal Media doctoring the video using animation and CGI than have some light bulb moment of clarity and take their vote elsewhere.
In a way that you have to be in awe of whether you’re right or left, the Republicans have effectively turned their base into THE O.J. JURY, where the Juice could’ve literally taken a bandsaw to 17 different white women right there in the courtroom, and an all-black jury would’ve still shrugged and found him innocent because their second cousin twice removed got stopped by white cops once in 1977.
@Discman: Obama may not be the messiah but he’s ever so slightly better than the monkey that was in office from 2000 to 2008.
LexG, Palin has the republican base, and that’s it. She will fumble answers and make mistakes. In fact she would be so over prepared to answer that Obama will give a logical, short answer and Palin would be searching for something to counter what Obama said instead of ansering the questions. First question: Does she believe in evolution?
“Answer”. My mistake.
Oh, I’m not saying she’s likely to WIN OVER too many new converts in a debate from people on the fence or moderates or those disappointed with Obama. Only was countering the argument that she’ll be somehow shamed in a debate. Whether she aces is or tanks it, her legions of fans will say she did great, and mocking her fumbled facts and transparent folksy covering only emboldens her supporters.
I do agree it’ll be tough for her to win over those not already seeing the magic.
Lex is pretty much spot-on.
The great innovation of recent politics – and the ENTIRETY of Palin’s appeal/existance – is that Republicans have finally figured out a way to make straight white Christians feel as though they’re VICTIMS of something.
markj: He’s better in the sense that he’s not an idiot, but he can certainly be as idiotic as Dubya at times. One of the bloggers on Crooksandliars.com was arguing that Obama always defered to the opposition, even during the campaign. But at least then it appeared to be a wise move, because he made them look like total jackasses. After he won, though, this tactic just helped legitimize them, and he should’ve started to change tactics. But he doesn’t have that flexibity[I was hoping he would.], other than against the people who actually elected him, and now he’s basically morphed into his own variation of John Kerry. He’s more photogenic than Kerry was, but he’s equally willing to wittle away an easy win just so he doesn’t appear to be rocking the boat.
BTW, given the short memories uber-pro-Obama supporters seem to have, three years ago, Hillary and/or Edwards were the favorites to win ’08. But Hillary blew it by enabling the Republicans and coasting too much the endorsement of a guy who hadn’t been in office in years, while Edwards blew it by not being more aggressive in his campaign, or branding himself better. And ten years ago, Gore had the edge on Dumbya, given that he was sitting on a stronger economy-albeit a fake one-than when Shrub’s dad was in charge, and given that the Republicans came off like total dick-head lunatics after Monica-Gate. Hell, even when Bubba did win ’96, it still wasn’t by 51%+ of the popular vote. So, these things aren’t as cut-and-dry as they seem on the surface.
No One will beat Obama. The economy will get better and the Republicans will be obstructionist dicks making American’s pissed at them.
That’s what they said about Democrat’s chances in 2010. Look how that turned out.
Obama’s problem in ’12 is that for the first time in his political career, he can’t run on platitudes and rhetoric. This time, he’s actually got a track record and the results (10% unemployment, trillion dollar deficits, Gitmo open, Afghanistan escalated, relations with Iran and NoKo deteriorated even further) are abysmal.
Obama rode several once-in-a-generation quirks (no incumbent POTUS OR VPOTUS to run against, first black president, GOP candidate scientifically designed to piss off his own base, historic economic downturn cresting during election season, 2 unpopular wars, and a media giving him daily bj’s) all the way to … 53%. Take away even one of those factors and “History’s Greatest Monster” is the current VP instead of reality TV show star.
I would like a right winger to explain to us exactly how any of that shit is Obama’s fault, without assuming it’s a given. Treat it like it’s a math problem you’ve solved, and show us your work, the logical steps you took to get there.
AH: “I disagree mainly because the Europeans would have gone after China’s huge market and left us in the dust.”
I would like a right winger to explain to us exactly how any of that shit is Obama’s fault, without assuming it’s a given. Treat it like it’s a math problem you’ve solved, and show us your work, the logical steps you took to get there.
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would like a right winger to explain to us exactly how any of that shit is Obama’s fault, without assuming it’s a given
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A Reassessment of what?