Grit To Win?
David Poland isn’t saying True Grit is beginning to pose a strong threat to The Social Network‘s presumed dominance as a Best Picture favorite. He isn’t saying it’s elbowed aside The King’s Speech and/or The Fighter to become TSN‘s main challenger. He isn’t saying it’s now poised to overtake TSN. He’s saying True Grit “has muscled its way into the frontrunner slot to win Best Picture.”
Because, you know, he’s been talking about Grit‘s Best Picture inevitability for a while now but primarily because the gnarly Coen brothers western is expected to make $90 million domestic by the end of the holidays.
Poland needs an “anything but The Social Network” movie to champion, and he’s given up on The King’s Speech‘s ability to stay the course (as well as the other alternate contenders) and True Grit‘s surprisingly strong revenues have convinced him that this is the horse to ride. That’s all that’s going on here. Poland being Poland and attempting a last-ditch TSN takedown.
This will be the second time during the 2010 Oscar season that the Poland Curse has struck, the first being when MCN’s founding rabbi stuck a shiv into Mark Romanek‘s Never Let Me Go by calling it “a masterpiece…smart and demanding and emotional and rigorous and profoundly artful.” That, as most of us instantly knew, was the end of that. And now True Grit, its Best Picture chances almost certainly diminished by this.
True Grit‘s box-office may well result in a Best Picture nomination along with a Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nom for the Coens, and possibly even a Best Director acting nomination for Jeff Bridges (“arrrrghh gaahrrr muuhrrrarrg”). But as Coming Soon‘s Ed Douglas wrote this morning, Grit “will lose screenplay to TSN‘s Aaron Sorkin and directing probably to David Fincher and acting to Colin Firth…its best bet right now is to finally give Roger Deakins his much-dserved cinematography Oscar.”
In Contention‘s Kris Tapley has also noted that True Grit hasn’t much hope on the Best Picture front Not “without a SAG ensemble nod…tough one to overcome.”
The best response to Poland’s piece came from “Loyal” at 10: 29 am: “I think a more likely scenario is that True Grit‘s financial success splinters the ‘I like this film more than The Social Network‘ vote even further and actually helps The Social Network win. You now have the Black Swan camp and the Toy Story 3 camp and the Inception camp and The King’s Speech camp and the True Grit camp all vying for the same piece of the pie and trying to topple The Social Network. It far easier to chose between two films than it is six films.”
I don’t think the Inception camp ever expected to compete for a Best Picture win. A nod for Best Picture and Best Picture yes, but not a win for the top-prize.
Plus, I don’t think anybody really loves “True Grit” enough to place it at #1. A lot of people really like it, but I don’t think it really has a chance, it doesn’t feel like a winner.
Poland’s a trip. Is he afraid that he’ll come out like a douche if it wins because of his perplexing critical stance against the film? Is his ego that fragile?
Social Network is taking it…as it should. True Grit is okay, but we won’t be talking about it in 20 years.
Poland’s perceived “Social Network” takedown attempt is perhaps only slightly lamer than Jeffrey’s “I’m just gonna hold my breath and DIE if ‘Social Network’ doesn’t win Best Picture! It has to win, I tell you! It just HAS to!” campaign.
That’s not Jeff’s mantra at all. He’s talked about The Fighter maybe beating it. The fact is, The Social Network IS the best film of 2010 by a long way and it should win. He’s stating the obvious.
My only problem with TRUE GRIT is the poor third act; it just seems to abrupt especially for a Scott Rudin produced film, otherwise it pretty enjoyable far superior to the original. The SOCIAL NETWORK however is the strongest of the two films.
Poland doesn’t believe 99% of what he writes. He just does it because it brings attention and some ad dollars his way. Which to him is the real internet war. Beyond standards and ethics, Poland, respects relevance above all. (Notice, you never see him write about someone he feels is less relevant than himself)
And I’ve got news for him and all the Oscar bloggers…
THERE IS NO OSCAR RACE.
The era where it was an honor to win the best picture award ended… around the time when Crash won.
There just aren’t enough good mainstream movies every year to justify the process. If you’re not a film writer or a rabid buff, you’re lucky to see 2 or 3 very good films a year.
So the process now — and it’s funny that no one has picked up on this — is Oscar trying to find a film that keeps the antiquated process going… ideally a popular film of dramatic heft… to protect the Academy against the armies of irrelevancy.
It’s not a race…. it’s a draft.
i do believe in the poland curse
however, i also agree with this poland statement re: never let me go:
“…a masterpiece…smart and demanding and emotional and rigorous and profoundly artful.”
I never realized Poland had that much power over the Oscars.
As great as TSN is, I just can’t see it as THE Best Picture winner. I’m afraid it’s going to be Benjamin Button all over again: a great movie being overlooked because it’s not sexy. The Academy today might be skewing younger than ten or twenty years ago, but how many forty or fiftysomethings really give a flying fuck about “The Facebook Movie?”
I think the Globes forgetting about Grit sealed its fate.
@pantingkitty
Really? It’s not? Where the hell have you been the past three months?
TRUE GRIT is OK for what it is, until the Coens try to force it into being anti-sentimental (not that I didn’t appreciate seeing the formidable stage actress Elizabeth Marvel as the adult Mattie). It does indeed end abruptly, and Brolin’s role felt like a mildly extended cameo; Barry Pepper (excellent) seemed to have more screen time. The original, which holds up just fine, gives the scenario more room to breathe, however it may depart from its source or cut to Glen Campbell’s grin.
And I have to say that the yellowed, “historical” cinematography, which is how it looked when I saw it, is something of a cliche at this point, and Deakins’ least distinctive work for the Coens. Which means he’s sure to win an Oscar, at last.
It’s best bet is Best Supporting Actress for Steinfeld. Unless the Academy does the smart thing and puts her in the lead Actress category where she really ought to be.
The Social Network isn’t as good as Benjamin Button though. However it’s mostly older people who are praising TSN as a masterpiece. Most younger people aren’t so enraptured with it, so it’s odd to me that people keep bringing up age like it’s a hindrance.
Inception or True Grit; that’s what I would like to see. I’ve grown weary of all this though.
Poland should write the menus for fake theme restaurants.
“which is how it looked when I saw it, is something of a cliche at this point, and Deakins’ least distinctive work for the Coens. Which means he’s sure to win an Oscar, at last. ”
That first sentence is exactly what I thought. That second sentence… yeah, that’s probably true. Oddly. I guess I’m glad he’ll win but, boy, given that the only other western he shot ranks among the best shot movies of the decade, that’s a bit of a disappointment.
And ‘True Grit’ almost surely won’t win, but, at the moment, it’s probably the only movie in the race with ANY forward momentum [maybe 'Rabbit Hole' too]. Most of the rest of the stuff is coasting by now.
If there is indeed a Poland curse, I wish he’d write 5,000+ words in praise of The Social Network daily.
Any chance of Never Let Me Go cracking the 10 BP nominees this year? And if not, why not?
Big fan of that film.
Poland is kicking ass today with this.
Obviously I like DP regardless, but even by his own admission he’s been focusing pretty heavily on his long-form interviews and, let’s say, phoning in the blog a little bit for months and months. When it went through that confusing format change a lot of people seemed to lose interest, and for months it’s just been the same three or four “regulars” bickering with their inside-commenter jokes and hostile jabs, instead of the dozens and dozens of comments he traditionally got… Good to see some movie-blogger “big guns” active on there and Poland firing back in full force.
And Poland is proving right about something else, I’m sorry to say– For months I’ve thought THE FIGHTER was gonna be some twenty-ton MILLION DOLLAR BABY-style stick of dynamite that would blow in at the 11th hour and rattle up this whole Oscar race, becoming a populist sensation that would GALVANIZE THE NATION like the original ROCKY and play at the top of the box office chart for weeks, months, doing way over 100 mil and sweeping all the Oscars away from TSN. Poland was downplaying the movie at EVERY turn (seems pretty clear he has major issues with it, even though he hasn’t reviewed it at length)… I thought he was just doing that Poland Undersell thing when he kinda hates something and never misses a chance to get in his jabs…
But unfortunately since I love the movie, I guess I have to concede he’s right. Fighter really isn’t catching ablaze like I thought it would, and unless someone really picks up the gauntlet on pimping it, GRIT seems to have stolen its thunder.
I would have guessed The Fighter would have made more of a stand, as well. It’s certainly not over by any means with just under 2 months left to go until the ceremony, but this was always the kind of movie that desperately needed some populist momentum (approval?) in order to sneak its way into the “can this actually win?” portion of the conversation.
But so far it has been underperforming at the B.O. — which, again, surprises me — and soon it’s going to be losing screens to the likes of Gondry and Howard in Green Hornet and Dilemma, respectively (sidenote: weirdest January dumping ground EVER).
Not exactly sure what the fallout from this will be, but there seems to be a decent shot that — if anything — it winds up helping Inception get a few more “aw, sheet, why not…I was entertained!” votes.
@coxcable
I haven’t heard that line of reasoning before. It is intriguing. I have nothing to bring to the conversation, but I would love to see it discussed.
TG is my favorite film of 2010, just ahead of Secret in Their Eyes, Inception, Ghost Writer, and Social Network. The Oscar voters might embrace it as an excellent example of old-fashioned storytelling. Potential King’s Speech voters might also be drawn to it because it has heart, in the Mattie-Rooster relationship. It’s also thoroughly entertaining.
Meanwhile, it’s a pleasure to see Wells stick it to Poland again. I really miss this feud. Poland also continues to deserve some punishment for his illogical cheerleading for DreamGirls a few years back.
The Fighter is under-performing because the boxing scenes are both boring *and* cliche. It really is that simple.
I’d love to believe that people actually saw it and said, “Well, that cake scene is so completely ridiculous that I can’t take this movie seriously, that jail scene was unwatchably cliche TV movie shit 20 years ago, and Bale isn’t as good at this as Eric Roberts was…”
But I know it’s really just the boring fight scenes.
“Any chance of Never Let Me Go cracking the 10 BP nominees this year? And if not, why not?
Big fan of that film”
Me too, but other than the British awards it’s come up with zero.
“The best response to Poland’s piece came from Loyal”
Woo Hoo, what a way to end 2010.
I stick by it, True Grit isn’t doing itself any favors. Sure it’s keeping Grit in the conversation but at what cost?
Had True Grit done respectable but not great business, everyone would still be rallying around The King’s Speech. But now people are scrambling to their various allegiances and rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
If ‘True Grit’ had done respectable but not great business, it wouldn’t be the only movie in the Best Picture race with any upward momentum right now. Of course that’s why it has the momentum.
“The Social Network isn’t as good as Benjamin Button though. However it’s mostly older people who are praising TSN as a masterpiece. Most younger people aren’t so enraptured with it, so it’s odd to me that people keep bringing up age like it’s a hindrance.”
It’s not true that young people don’t love it. They absolutely do. They don’t throw around the word “masterpiece” but they say “that was a fucking good movie.” It’s entertaining. That is what it has going for it over the others.
In other SOCIAL NETWORK news, the Winklevi strike back: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/31/business/31twins.html?hp
Meow.
True Grit will not win Best Picture. In a five horse race, it wouldn’t even be nominated. Poland’s wrong.
Just caught True Grit tonight. Great movie, imo. However, I don’t see it beating The Social Network. No way, no how. It’s really just a matter of the Coens already winning twice. Bridges won last year. Even though I and everyone who went with me to see it loved Bridges, he’s not going to win this year. Steinfield is wonderful and in any other year would probably get her due, but not this one. Network is just too good to pass on and Fincher is overdue (should have been feted for Zodiac). Don’t know how the rest will pan out but I think TSN completely deserves it’s accolades — it’s timely and Zuckerberg’s recent philanthropy will play well.
Support for TSN peaked about 3 weeks ago, when the critics awards were wrapping up; pretty hard to maintain buzz in the home stretch conversation when you are pretty much out of theaters by XMAS.
BP is a more wide open race than the TSN supporters want to believe, but the cracks are starting to show. Black Swan, The King’s Speech. and True Grit are on a roll…at this point, I would put my money on the field vs TSN.
Expect True Grit (which I didn’t even like, finding it empty of emotional involvement) to win noms – and probable awards – for photography, art direction, costume and sound.