Out Of The Bottle
The standout factor, for me, isn’t the violent conflict between young Egyptian militants and police in Cairo, or the economic factors driving the fury. It’s that none of this would be happening if it hadn’t been for the recent government overthrow in Tunisia. Political rage can ignite very suddenly. Why did many Eastern European socialist governments all topple within months of each other in 1989? All it takes is a flash of a match.
It’s too bad in a sense because Hosni Mubarak, autocratic dictator that he is, has been essentially pro-Israel and a force for political moderation and stablization for the last three decades. If he goes Egypt could become a Muslim brotherhood state, and that, of course, would threaten Israel. I wonder how many other dictatorial governments in the Middle East and northern Africa are going to come under siege?
There’s an almost romantic exhilaration that comes from joining mass street protests and yelling “throw the bums out.” Primal, primitive, decisive. “Violence and revolution are the only pure acts.” — Malcolm McDowell‘s Mick Travis in Lindsay Anderson‘s If…. But once this or that government has toppled and the thrill has subsided, that’s when the heartache begins.
The realist in me wants to say dictators aren’t always bad, the other half says fuck it. It really is all about what would replace him.
Here’s a good Esquire piece from about 4 years ago about how in terms of the “Long War”, our military has been worried about Egypt and Africa for awhile. http://bit.ly/fa5pA5
Exactly. Were the Mubarak regime to fall, the Muslim Brotherhood will make a play for leadership. Of course, none of this will happen. A few thousand demonstraters in a country of 80 million isn’t going to topple anything.
Jackson Diehl, deputy editorial page editor of the Washington Post ,has an interesting piece dated Jan. 27 entitled “Obama administration could still get it right on Egypt.” One quote: “U.S. support for a peaceful transition from Mubarak’s government to a new democracy could be decisive and it is not too late to take the right side.”
I don’t pretend to understand the dynamics of Egypt but I did see one BBC report that the Muslim brotherhood crowd was staying out of the initial movement for change.You wonder if some kind of a secular democracy, free of religion and with a written bill or charter of rights, is possible .
It seems as though this really started with Iran. I wish I knew more about the inner-workings of these governments, but I usually believe that if this many people take to the streets and are willing to take this type of action a change needs to be made. Who knows what will come next – the instability of the short-term can lead to some serious bumps in the road – but it’s probably time to find out.
Preview of coming attractions, really – Mubarak’s government has the support of the military and pledged support from us AND the Saudis, so this isn’t “the end” for him. On the other hand…
Mubarak is in his 80s, there’s NO clear successor within his own circle and his vauge “plan” of seeing his own son “ascend” to the post is partially what touched this shitstorm off. One way or another, there’s going to be vaccum-like moment there relatively soon with multiple factions vying for power in “democractic” elections, probably with violence when/if things don’t go the way the Men With Guns wanted them to. That’s when you have the danger of Muslim Brotherhood or some other fundie-affiliated outfit taking over, which would be a disaster.
personal digression: I’ve been ever so slightly dissapointed in myself (though nowhere near as much as I would’ve thought) that when hearing about this unfolding clusterfuck – which could kill hundreds of thousands and plunge an already-suffering part of the world into greater chaos – my first and most-prominent thought is: “Oh no, is THIS going to be the moment where the Islamic-Fundies take over Egypt and start blowing up the ‘pagan’ pyramids, sphinx etc. like they did to the Giant Buddhas in Afghanistan?” Pre-9/11 in my art school brat days, this was THE “nightmare scenario” in the Art History world.
The standout factor, for me, isn’t the violent conflict between Scott Rudin and Harvey Weinstein in Hollywood, or the economic factors driving the fury. It’s that none of this would be happening if it hadn’t been for the recent PGA win and the TKS noms bonanza on Tuesday. Awards Season rage can ignite very suddenly. Why did many Oscar frontrunners like “Brokeback Mountain” and “Saving Private Ryan” topple before Oscar night? All it takes is a flash of a match.
In his SOTU Obama said “we stand with the Tunisian people.” Yet no mention of the Egyptian protesters. Make no mistake, the U.S. government could deal with little Tunisia falling by the wayside. Egypt is another story. The American political establishment is hostile to the protesters. The comments by Robert Gibbs and Joe Biden expose the moral and ethical bankruptcy of this administration.
@elzilcho,
Moral/ethical “bankruptcy” is kinda pushing it.
Like it or not, Obama is the President of the U.S., not the Guardian Angel of “oppressed” people everywhere. His first responsibility is to the security of his own country, and there’s no equation where a governmental collapse in Egypt isn’t a HUGE net-negative for America. So, yes, sometimes he (or anyone else in the role) HAS to support less-than-great leaders.
Now, it’s a different story when we’re supporting actual BAD GUYS; like we did with Saddam back in the day. But while Mubarak is demonstrably corrupt and an autocrat he’s not exactly lining people up to be shot – he’s not a Saddam, or even a Shah. If he goes down, yeah – Egyptians will have “freedom”… for all of a day or two, until the vaccum is filled by some REALLY bad leadership; and then they are the rest of the region are royally fucked.
To put it in “local” perspective: Right now Egypt’s choices are to be led by Dick Cheney or led by Glenn Beck – there’s no Obama (or even a McCain) for them. Sucks, but there ya go.
It is somewhat cynical to suggest that the only options for the Egyptian people are military dictatorship and Islamic theocracy. Should Mubarak fall the vaccum left would present significant challenges for the Egyptian masses. It’s a dangerous road ahead. But El-Baradei, who is being played up in the western media to step into the void, has already signaled his willingness to work with the Muslim Brotherhood. And proping up the Mubarak regime has nothing to do with protecting the security of the American people. It has everything to do with proping a corrupt, pliant regime for geo-political purposes.
When administration officials pledge their support for Mubarak no matter what, it essentially gives the regime a green light to use any and all force to crush the rebellion.
The only thing I’m concerned about is that Republicans will co-opt the whole thing into a revisionist argument that the Iraq War did in fact bring about these changes, much like they later claimed that Reagan’s weapons build-up and friendship with Osama Bin Laden helped bring about the end of the USSR. Though I do love the irony of pols and pundits who were pro-war *precisely* because they supported the idea of toppling strong-men like Saddam suddenly chastizing people who revolt against similar leaders in that part of the world. I guess a revolution’s only acceptable when we do it. Anyway, I doubt we’ll see an Iran 2.0 out of this, because that would just basically be a fundy version of what they’re already enduring. Plus, it’s an open secret is that no one in the Middle East actually likes Iran, because that country’s fundies are bat-shit insane in a way which makes other countries in that region look normal.
Bob: No one in Egypt is going to blow up pyramids, ‘cus they know that shit is tourist gold.
“So, yes, sometimes he (or anyone else in the role) HAS to support less-than-great leaders.”
Then explain what he gained from flip-flopping on that coup in Honduras to appease Republicans. Let’s be honest here. This has nothing to do with Egypt. The people in charge are worried it could happen here.
Unlike the Air Force which Mubarak comes from and is made up of elites, the army is full of average citizens much like the protesters.
In other words, this is going to go down and what Obama & Clinton do in the next few days will decide how Egypt views the US for some time to come.
PS – Jeff, the collapse of the Soviet Union might have had just a taaad to do with those other states falling as well.
DTG: Egypt is its own country. The Soviet Union was formed from countries occupied by the Russkies who developed a nationalistic bent. So the real concern in this situation would be how it would impact OPEC.
Uh, yeah, right, whatever…
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