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Box Office Mojo‘s Brandon Gray is reporting that the $37.3 million earned yesterday by Transformers: Dark of the Moon is a technical shortfaller. Although it earned 2011′s biggest opening-day income, T3 nonetheless “pales compared to the opening day income of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen and likely yielded fewer viewers than the first Transformers.”
There are three reasons for this. One, a large percentage of moviegoers are always slow on the pickup as far as advance internet buzz is concerned, and so they haven’t heard that the film has to be seen for the 45-minute attack-on-Chicago finale. Two, the crappy quality of Revenge of the Fallen has diminished general interest in the franchise. And three, people are feeling a little burned out right now about 3D franchise movies and so a certain percentage didn’t go yesterday because they’re taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Four – It’s a Transformers movie
I think it will be fine, especially since audiences seem to enjoy and everyone says it’s better than the 2nd at least. That said, if international box office is going to bring Pirates 4 to about a billion, I can’t’ imagine how successful this is going to be around the world.
Or the ever popular: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me; fool me three times…I’m a fucking idiot.
Cinemascore A = nothing to worry about. Word of mouth is gonna give it better legs than the last one.
One of the big factors is the lack of Megan Fox. Believe it.
$200 million in 10 days has to be their target. I see the film doing $350 mill here, $750 mill there…
I will do a LITERAL jig if this and Green Lantern BOTH wind up as money-losers – it can’t POSSIBLY perform as well as the last one with Potter out next week and its own studio giving 3D screens over to Captain America a week later, can it?
sorry, bob. there’s no way that TF3 will be a “money-loser.” not by a long shot. it’s basically guaranteed with GL, though it’s strange that they’re planning a sequel to a movie that won’t gross domestically what it cost to make…
I haven’t felt the usual all-out media blitz that typically accompanies the release of a really major blockbuster. I saw the fucking Green Lantern trailer every damn day–sometimes a couple times a day–on TV the month before it opened; I don’t think I’ve seen the trailer for TF3 more than once, maybe twice. The studio seems just a little embarrassed about it.
Feels a bit like the Pirates launch…also a little light on TV.
Actually, I feel just the opposite: seems like I’m seeing TF3 TV spots all over the place. Constantly.
Still, that’s a pretty weak opening. It’s going to struggle to get past TF1 ($319 million), and there’s a small chance it might not even make $300 million. (TF2 basically doubled its 6-day gross. If TF3 gets around $155m or so through the holiday weekend, that means around $310 million — in a year when legs are generally weaker.)
I never even made it through the first film, but might just take my grandson to see this one. Though a joint woul definately help!
It doesn’t really have any direct competition in the genre for at least another two weeks. Three if you don’t count Harry Potter (which, we probably should).
Still: that’s a “long” time to make coin in this modern theatrical climate. Disappointing opening or not, it’s going to be fine — it’s basically got a monopolistic stranglehold on the “sweet spot” of ticket-buyers for the next 14 days (including a major moviegoing-friendly holiday weekend).
Harry Potter is the most embarrassing thing in the world. I’d rather watch Depp do that fucking lame dance at the end of Alice, than ever watch a second of those movies again.
…”movies [not the plural] again.”
So how many times did you keep returning to the series after each progressive film kept seemingly offending you so?
*[note]
goddamnit.
I actually tried 3 different times.The one that Cuaron directed, which people say is so different and the best. (It isn’t, and I really think people say that just because they like Children of Men, then went back and watched it.) Then I tried Half Blood twice, and couldn’t make it at all. Even the action packed trailer of this new does nothing for me.
That number does not bode well. We will know when we see Friday’s number. The last one really did kill it…
Even if it disappoints here, it’ll unfortunately probably break the bank internationally like POTC 4.
Though I’m surprised Disney was bragging about how well it did internationally when the second film made the most money of the bunch.
The biggest issue is how much of the backend goes to Bay and Hasbro. If this doesn’t equal the first film, it won’t necessarily be trouble because everyone will have walked away, but this will be a damaged brand.
Though I bet overseas receipts will be MUCH larger for this one than it was for the last two.
Its got 2 weeks till the Potter storm arrives and then that is it. But there’s no doubt in my mind that 3D fatigue has set in which will hurt it.
I want to see it again but in 2-D. Strike that — I want to see the last hour again, in 2-D.
A little late, but what the hell? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr3T-3Iv9gw
“But there’s no doubt in my mind that 3D fatigue has set in which will hurt it.”
If only 3D fatigue would also set in outside the US, but international audiences keep flocking to these 3D movies which keeps on encouraging the studios to produce more 3D garbage that adds a surcharge to tickets and diminishes the experience of watching a movie.
Where I live right now, if a movie is in 3D then it will only be available in 3D. I don’t have the choice to watch it in 2D. This forces me to pay extra to watch a dark image through uncomfortable glasses.
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2 Things:
1) Any sequel has to deal with the legacy of it’s past movie. T2 was awful. In my opinion T3 is equally awful, but the majority of people seem to be giving it a pass. No one gave T2 a pass.
2) Never forget, these films are 2+ hour commercials for toys. Hasbro sold $830 million dollars of Transformers 2 merchandise. You can get all excited and point to that fact that T3 won’t domestically match part 2′s opening weekend and feel like you personally have won something, but T3 will most likely have a higher worldwide total gross. And of course, they will probably match that number in merchandise.
This doesn’t make the world a better place, but let’s make sure we are all properly reading the scorecard.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34229389/ns/business-businessweekcom/
$21,455,000 Thursday estimate (-43%)
“It’s over Johnny”
Not that I’m defending the numbers or anything, but it’s also possible that some people, especially parents with small kids, figured the cinemas would be crowded as hell and decided to wait until after the holiday weekend. (As you recall, Cadavra never sees a film opening weekend.)
To be honest, I’m more curious what everyone thinks about the prospects of that Hugh Jackman robot boxing movie.
The last 45 minutes isn’t that great. It’s all very stop/start and you have zero emotional interest in what’s happening. A few spectacular shots and set pieces aside the whole thing is mind numbing bore.
I also found that the 3D ruined the scale and made everything look like toy cars and model buildings. I’d say avoid 3D if you insist on going to see it.
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