Boilerplate Best Picture Default
The age-old Steven Spielberg = sweeping emotionality equation had led five Gold Derby experts — Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg, Village Voice‘s Michael Musto, Movieline‘s Stu Van Airsdale plus Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan — to forecast a War Horse Best Picture win. Five others have picked The Descendants, and two have gone for The Artist. I’m the only Moneyball guy, and Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers is picking The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.
Everyone seems to be betting on the come, looking for movies to break through in the last 3 months of the year that will define the BP race. I agree with them based on history and also based on the films released so far this year – I doubt if more than one or two of the movies we have already seen will be in the BP discussion in January; my money is on Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris.
Second thought (tied to the first): I am glad to see that The Help is slipping down the rankings after all the ridiculous hype of August, though I am not surprised it is viewed more favorably by the panel than Moneyball. But I don’t see either of these making the BP race unless there is a real collapse in all of the anticipated films coming out in the next 3 months.
Peter Travers is out of his mind.
The War Horse trailer looked promising, although i’m concerned that the screenplay is by Richard Curtis… that could bring out the worst in Spielberg.
If they do ten nominations again, here’s how I think it’d go. — 10 is what I think should be nominated
1. moneyball
2. warhorse
3. the descendants
4. the help
5. midnight in paris
6. tinker, tailor, solider, spy
7. tree of life
8. the girl with the dragon tattoo
9. rise of the planet of the apes
10. *Warrior*
Its been said a million times- who CARES what the Best Picture NOMINEES are, there are TEN of them.
There aren’t ten worthy nominees in any year. OF COURSE Moneyball will be part of that group.
I don’t think it wins- as JR mentioned, it’s TOO EARLY- but of course it gets nominated.
YOU CAN NOMINATE TEN MOVIES!!
Dumbest rule change ever.
Ray, with the changes for this year, only 5 are guaranteed to be in the race, max up to 10. I will be surprised if more than 6 or 7 films make it into the race under the new rules (as I understand it, a film has to get 5% of the first place votes on all ballots to be included in the BP race).
Hence all the discussion about films on the bubble.
SHIT. I’M IGNORANT.
I stand corrected, JR.
Peter Travers is out of his mind.
The War Horse trailer looked promising, although i’m concerned that the screenplay is by Richard Curtis… that could bring out the worst in Spielberg.
This early in the race, they’re bowing to prestige. Remember when Charlie Wilson’s War was at the head of these lists in 2007?
Spielberg’s won two Best Director Oscars, and neither of them were for his more sentimental stuff. War Horse could break out and be appealing to Oscar voters in just the way Dreamworks hopes it will, or it will fall victim to soft reviews and a ‘been-there done-that’ feel.
On the other hand, if Sideways had George Clooney-level star power, it probably would have had a good chance at winning in 2004.
Seeing Moneyball tonight, hope its as good as Jeff is saying, but my feelings on The Social Network were mixed. That said, Moneyball doesn’t look like it will be blatantly indignant toward an entire generation.
Jus’ my 2 cents.
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