War Horse Falls at Gold Derby

I’ve never understood odds or point spreads (i.e., kind of but not really), but Gold Derby‘s Tom O’Neil is reporting that War Horse has dropped in terms of Best Picture racetrack odds, obviously because of reactions to WH screenings over the past two or three days. On 11.1 the top predicted favorites were The Descendants (36%), War Horse (20%) and The Artist (17%) and now it’s The Artist (37%), The Descendants (35%) and War Horse (13%). For what it’s worth. O’Neil says he’ll be running a piece tomorrow about “how far War Horse has fallen since we’ve [all] seen it.”

  • Wrecktem

    I find it inexplicable that anyone thinks a French silent movie that no one will see would win Best Picture.

  • RobbyH

    awesome. down the the horse! let’s hope Dragon Tattoo fails to live up to it’s hype. Then The Descendants it is! ;) It makes you laugh! It makes you cry! beautiful shots of Hawaii! yaya. Woodley+Greer for Supporting please. I do want the threesome (Michel,Bejo and Jean) to be nominated to but not win. Although I think Brad Pitt should/will win Lead Actor for Moneyball not Clooney.

  • ModernLifeIsRubbish

    People will see The Artist. It’s going to do great with the Midnight in Paris crowd.

    However, they won’t see We Need to Talk About Kevin, so I’m not sure why Swinton (who also failed to garner a nomination for I Am Love) is above Olsen and Mara?

  • Chris Willman

    Wrecktum: No one will see “The Artist” like no one saw “Slumdog Millionaire.”

  • joe banks

    The Artist. saw it last night (packed house at the Arclight). we all ate it up. it will be the “King’s Speech” to The Descendant’s “Social Network”

    Best Actor for Jean Dujardin over Clooney

    maybe they split Director and give that to Payne over Hazanavicius

    Best Cinematography, Best Score (at least) in the other skill awards to The Artist

    Harvey will slow roll it out between now and February like he always does

  • Mark G.

    Sounds to me like the Republican presidential race – every month a new frontrunner…

  • DiscoNap

    Why is The Descendants the “head” movie? Because it’s stilted and doesn’t completely stick the landing on the “heart” stuff? Solid B, so many better options. Even Clooney’s other work this year. This is madness.

    Also why is Wells half in the tank for Zoo but completely down on Horse? Is it because the latter doesn’t feature doughy Damon rocking William Devane’s hair?

  • corey3rd

    Jack and Jill has the Razzies so locked up.

  • Robert Cashill

    THE DESCENDANTS is the kind of movie that gets several nominations but fails to win any.

  • the400blows

    THE DESCENDANTS is excellent. It should be a strong contender for Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Director. Although I loved THE SOCIAL NETWORK, I think THE DESCENDANTS will appeal to more people thereby having a better chance at winning Best Picture.

  • a_loco

    I love Payne’s stuff, but I thought The Descendants was kind of weak on first viewing. It had enough really nice scenes to make me wanna see it again and refine my opinion (Clooney and Woodley vs. Lillard, the Greer scene at the end, Clooney and Woodley and Greer’s performances in general), but a lot of felt really tepid. The land deal subplot was particularly unoriginal.

    SPOILERS

    That scene at the end where Clooney changes his mind on Beau Bridges? The fuck? Also, that uber contrived resolution to the Sid storyline? What happened to Payne’s balls?

    END SPOILERS

    Music was great, though.

  • Robert Cashill

    I liked it well enough, particularly the actors (Robert Forster, too) but I’m not feeling the Oscar heat or end of year love. It’s like someone who half-embraces you, leaving you confused about their intentions.

  • JR

    Not that there is a lick of value to the Gold Derby odds, but the only statistically significant change is a doubling of support for The Artist; The Descendants and War Horse have changed very little.

  • LexG

    I said this elsethread, but much as I like The Descendants (so much so that I don’t really wanna get in pissing matches over it with people who were unaffected by it, but hence the following point)…

    I think it’s going to get brutalized, a la Clooney’s last life-lesson movie, Up in the Air, as the race goes on. It’s the kind of human-scale thing that as with most Clooneys arrived with a lot of blogger-type hype, because movie-world types like Wells and Co. see George as the Ideal Version of themselves… but when you hype a “tweener” like The Descendants, you totally risk that defensive mode most people, critics AND Academy members, bring to a film– that thing where they instinctively want to NOT like something as much as the hype. And when it’s a very specialized movie like Descendants that either hits you or it doesn’t, you’re gonna get a LOT of underwhelmed, even hostile, blowback from hipper-than-thous or people who look for weightier themes or more transgressive-agressive filmmaking. Some little nice ode to Hawaii and middle-aged forgiveness is just gonna look smaller and smaller as the BIG GUNS come out, and it’ll end up getting kicked around like an eager-to-please, wounded puppy.

    All of which is too bad, since I am very fond of the movie, but I almost wish it were out of the conversation altogether, because it’s the kind of sentimental fave that once blowhards in comments sections start hating on it or saying they felt nothing from it, it just makes EVERYBODY like the movie a little less, and makes the whole dialogue more toxic.

  • http://www.lekker-flirten.com lekker flirten

    This movie will never be nominated ! Btw I love slumdog millionare dude !

  • BobbyLupo

    Great post, Lex (#14).

  • BobbyLupo

    “THE DESCENDANTS is the kind of movie that gets several nominations but fails to win any. ”

    This always seems like a safe bet with Clooney. I did pretty decent in the Oscar pool a few years back when I realized ‘Up In The Air’ was that movie and switched by screenplay pick to ‘Precious’. (Actually, it was something else first, but I did settle on ‘Precious’.) If it weren’t for Tilda Swinton, he’d be three-for-three as far as movies he’s starred in/directed getting lots of nominations and winning none.

  • http://www.om-onny.com/ tephoz2001