Snuggle4 Rules!

I never rank very high in predicting Oscar winners because I’m psychologically unable to separate or compartmentalize my feelings about the contenders from what I’ve been told or otherwise led to expect will happen. Every year about two-thirds of my predictions are on the money and roughly a third are not. I could have done a little better than 63% (i.e., last night’s final score) if I’d listened to Ben Zauzmer and predicted Meryl Streep to win Best Actress, but I couldn’t push myself off the Viola Davis boat.

The Oscar prediction game is fundamentally naught but simple shit.

This aside, congratulations to Gold Derby reader “snuggle4” (whomever he or she may be) for scoring 88% correct. Ten other Gold Derby users scored 84%. But credit where due, Snuggle4 was way ahead of the top three Gold Derby “experts” who got 80% right — Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, Fox News’ Tariq Khan and Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone.

Who is Snuggle4? I’m asking. Why doesn’t he/she have his/her own awards season column?

EW‘s “Safe Dave” Karger, Net Movie’s Kevin Polowy, TheWrap‘s Steve Pond, Gold Derby‘s Paul Sheehan and USA Today‘s Susan Wloszczyna got 75% correct last night.

The 71% Solution team: Vulture‘s Kyle Buchanan, Coming Soon‘s Edward Douglas, L.A. TimesElena Howe, Gold Derby honcho Tom O’Neil, Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers and Fandango’s Chuck Walton.

The 67% Crowd included were Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg, WENN’s Kevin Lewin, In Contention‘s Guy Lodge and the Village Voice‘s Michael Musto.

At 63% were Yahoo Movies’ Matt McDaniel, Hollywood News’ Sean O’Connell, Moviefone‘s Chris Rosen, Indiewire‘s Anne Thompson and myself.

  • Robin Colcord






  • Sydney Bristow

    Snuggle is a bitch. I heard his teddy bears told him the winners.

  • Raising_Kaned

    Sasha Stone IS…

    The Girl with the Oscar Tattoo.

  • JLC

    In retrospect, the Streep win was probably easier to predict than it appeared. She was playing a real person in a bio-pic and used just enough makeup to make the transformation. That describes an awful lot of Best Actors/Actresses over the past decade or so.

  • Krillian

    I got 75%, and I too couldn’t put Meryl Streep’s name down.

  • Ray

    “Who is Snuggle4? I’m asking. Why doesn’t he/she have his/her own awards season column?”

    He/She is hopefully a person who has a life and doesn’t do this for a living and wouldn’t get all BUTTHURT over months and months of prognostications that turned out wrong and cheerleading that fell on utterly deaf ears.

    My favorite math wizard is still that donkey that counts with its hooves. I’m hoping Snuggle4 just scored better than everyone on a lark.

    (FOR THE RECORD, I’ve had plenty of years with that or even better success in predicting winners. 88% isn’t hard as long as you leave the emotion out of it, which is easy when NOBODY CARES WHO WINS THESE STUPID THINGS ANYMORE).

  • MDOC

    Not that anyone noticed or cares, but to at least clear my conscious, I did boldly declare about three weeks ago that the best Oscar award was 100% Clooney’s and the debate was over. I was wrong.

    It’s time to add 2011’s The Artist to the list of Best Picture Oscar award winners I will never get around to watching. This makes two in a row.

  • Edward Havens

    Too bad. The Artist is a good movie, MDOC. Much better than The King’s Speech.

  • Cadavra

    ARTIST and KING’S SPEECH are both terrific. Missing them to prove some sort of nebulous point only deprives you of grand entertainment.

  • i thought brad pitt will win for money ball…. but it couldnt happen

  • Kakihara

    From Ebert’s Twitter: Reader tells me she knew Davis would lose when Spencer won. Politics: “Two white men and two black women were not going to be in that photo”

  • Floyd Thursby

    Is it fair to say that Dujardin, Plummer, and, especially, Spencer won as much for the sympathy the voters felt for their characters as for their interpretations of these characters, while Streep won for her performance?

  • Noiresque

    Hah! I picked Meryl! But I was pulling for Viola, even though I had problems with the help. Octavia deservingly won, and given the indignity of performing the shit pie scene without degrading her character to a buffoon, her work is all sharper.

    I don’t think Viola lost for the reason Ebert’s reader stated, but because looking at the list of nominees – Meryl, Glenn, Viola, Michelle and Rooney – there was no way one of the latter 2 were going to win. They gave big flashy performances, and both films did as well as could be hoped, but neither THE GIRL nor MARILYN were word of mouth hits with audiences.

    THE HELP was, though many people found its premise offensive. Viola was up against two grand old dames, one of whom whilst lavished with Tonys, Emmys and Globes hasn’t been nominated in 19 years, the other is in the unusual prime of her career and nominated every other year for the last decade. I actually think it is Glenn’s presence that pushed Meryl onto the winners podium by demonstrating that two contemporaries have been overlooked whilst doing work possibly stronger than the men they came up with are doing now.

  • opinion

    This is why it is a miracle the telecast didn’t tank and barely inched up from last year’s in viewers, b/c the awards were pretty much predictable. Even Meryl’s ‘upset’ was pretty predictable. The trick is not fool oneself that Oscars award excellence. They don’t, or rather not entirely. They go to those who want it more desperately. Or rather, the voting majority relates to neediness, release the statues to those who want to impress them the most: Hugo’s behind the camera work, the leading man in The Artist. Meryl. Those male movie stars playing cool b/c they thought the coast was clear, those bit the dust. Lesson learned.

  • AnnaZed

    I saw an interview on the net somewhere (like the oscar’s page last station interviews I think) where a calm Gary Oldman opined ‘I think the Frenchman is going to win it.’; not turning a hair.

    Interesting the way Mark Wahlberg injected himself into he conversation though wasn’t it. What was up with that?

  • I saw an interview on the net somewhere (like the oscar’s franklin marshall page last station interviews I think) where a calm Gary Oldman opined ‘I think the Frenchman is going to win it.’; not turning a hair.

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