Gold Derby Spitballs

With very few Gold Derby know-it-alls knowing very much, here’s the first estimate of the leading 2012 Oscar contenders. I finally submitted my own estimates today. Here’s how they stack up against the other pundits:

13 thoughts on “Gold Derby Spitballs

  1. I think Flight has a really good shot. Have not seen the film, but the buzz is great. More importantly though, I think people are responding to the trailer magnificently, and if the movie delivers on that I think it could be another Zemeckis populist winner. When he avoids motion-capture and genre stuff he connects with audiences better than even Spielberg.

  2. Why do you have Playbook as Best Picture, but not best editing nominee? The last Best picture winner without an editing nomination was ‘Ordinary People’ in 1980.

  3. I can’t see anybody beating Daniel Day-Lewis portraying Lincoln. That shot of him in the trailer immediately after his name comes up is incredible.

  4. Seem like pretty reasonable predictions, Jeff — good job (and I can see now why you would feel “suffocated” by the year-end movies by reading these lists; the conformity of it all!).

    Anyway, my one little nitpick. If Django (which I was really surprised to see you viewed as a potential BP nominee, by the way) ends up connecting with audiences in a similar way to Basterds — it’s going to be because of its writing. I think it could replace Zero Dark Thirty in your rankings, no problem (because even if it’s technically an Original Screenplay, it’s not really an Original Screenplay…come on!).

  5. Hilarious that Jeff has Lincoln placed 7th out of the 10 Best Film nods and Spielberg is nowhere to be seen in the Directing nominees.

  6. I really don’t see it for “Zero Dark Thirty.” It’s got a number of hurdles. First, many may few it as Bigelow going back to the same well as she did with “Hurt Locker.” I know it’s not the same film but I think that sentiment will be present among some voters. Secondly, what is the history on really recent historical events connecting with audiences? I think this is going to have the same reaction as stuff like “Green Zone”, “W”, and “United 93.” All good films that disappointed financially and missed any major awards consideration.

  7. No one has seen 4 of those top 8, and 3 of the remaining 4 haven’t been released wide yet. So this is saying that Beasts of the Southern Wild is the best movie released to date available to the general public? Top 30 yes, top 1, no.

  8. Can someone please explain to me how an “Iraq war movie” is ANYWHERE near the same thing as a movie about hunting Bin Laden? Aside from the desert and the brown people?

    Anyway, “same well” didn’t hurt Godfather 2 or Return of the King chances with Academy voters (or The Departed, or…etc.)

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