Big Finish

The Presidential campaign might be “functionally over” (as MSNBC’s Laurence O’Donnell just said an hour ago) as of right now, due to Frankenstorm. The storm will rule between now and Wednesday or Thursday. So there’ll basically be some campaigning Friday through Monday — four days. Before that Obama gets to be the nation’s leader overseeing the vast recovery efforts and Shallow Mitt can’t afford to appear to care more about his election chances than the welfare and safety of hurricane victims.

FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver is saying the numbers are more or less where they were in June, and Romney is on record as being in favor of shutting down FEMA. I think the election is over as of today with the odds clearly favoring Obama squeaking through to a win.

There are no facts if you’re determined to reject them by hook or crook. There are no persuasive arguments or narratives. There is only what people want to believe.

  • cyanic

    Maybe God’s an Obama man? The last election was won when the economy went down. Now the weather is shutting up the stupid.

  • Ray DeRousse

    Along the lines of that FEMA quote, Romney also said that Federal aid for disaster victims is “immoral.”

    Only if money is your God, dumbshit.

    Just one more week before Romney can return to embarrassing himself in private rather than in public.

  • Pete Apruzzese

    You might be right as long as storm coverage prevents all the facts from coming out about Obama’s bungling of the Benghazi situation. Imagine if the “journalists” at the Times investigated the White House Benghazi email trail. But they must answer to their masters in Washington, so you’ll never see it from them.

  • Correcting Jeff

    If we had a dime for every time Jeff declared this election “over” in the past two years, we’d be able to buy him a clue.

  • David A.

    “I think the election is over as of today with the odds clearly favoring Obama squeaking through to a win.”

    Nah, the election was over when the post-3rd debate polls showed Romney still in the lead.

  • moviesquad

    Last 5 posts all on an election that’s been over for a long time now according to this very blog. Since 4 years of Obama being President hasn’t made much of a dent, let’s get back to talking about movies instead of the next 4 years which are likely to amount to even less accomplished than the last 4 (regardless of who wins).

  • Mr. F.

    Correcting Jeff writes:

    “If we had a dime for every time Jeff declared this election “over” in the past two years, we’d be able to buy him a clue.”

    Good to have you back, Sasha!

  • Raising_Kaned

    Well — I, for one, still remain undecided.

    Brb, gonna check in with my parents and see who they’re supporting.

  • Soma

    I would say the race is favoring Romney who has the current momentum. In June, and through the summer, Obama had the momentum. It will be a toss-up in the end and will depend on a few states surprising (or not).

  • dogcatcher

    I love how liberals sense a political advantage in this storm.

    BTW, how many times have you liberals declared this race over now?

    Romney still leads nationally. So now it’s over when you have a deficit in polling? You people are delusional. It’ll be over next Tuesday when everyone votes and those votes are counted.

  • dogcatcher

    Also, Nate Silver is a partisan hack. He’s the left wing version of Dick Morris. His proclamations mean nothing. He got ONE ELECTION mostly right. Anyone can get one election right.

  • Anony-mouse

    “There are no facts if you’re determined to reject them by hook or crook. There are no persuasive arguments or narratives. There is only what people want to believe.”

    Written by Jeff Wells, with zero self awareness.

    Gary Johnson 2012!!!!!1!!!

  • Mr. F.

    “Romney still leads nationally. So now it’s over when you have a deficit in polling?”

    Ask President Gore what it’s like to win the popular vote.

  • Travis Actiontree

    Anybody see any good movies lately?

  • Anony-mouse
  • Ghost072

    Hey dogcatcher, was Nate Silver a partisan hack when he correctly predicted that the Republicans would win in 2010? And how exactly is his computer partisan? He simply runs thousands of simulations using real polling data, giving us a more accurate view of the race than simply reading a Gallup poll and saying Romney (or Obama) is leading. There’s a partisan hack here, but it isn’t Nate Silver. Can’t wait to hear your whining after Obama wins this thing because of Ohio and Iowa.

  • reverent and free

    Ruh Roh indeed Anon, the same Republican pollster you just cited has FL a toss up. Obama could lose Ohio and still win, especially now that he has his lead back in VA. But if Romney loses Florida the game’s over.

  • joe banks

    ah yes, Rasmussen. the last refuge of GOP dead-enders who need to believe there is still hope for Swiss Mitt

  • Travis Actiontree

    I laugh at all of your feeble predictions. Like Jeffrey pointed out way back when, this election was officially over when that pizza shop guy bear-hugged Obama.

    How many times must I remind you.

    And is Lawrence O’Donnell’s straightjacket back from the dry cleaners yet?

  • otto

    The meme that this race is “close” is for ratings. The reality – as in electoral college reality – is that Obama will reach 270 with relative ease absent the possibility that just about every pollster in the country is getting the 9 battlegrounds wrong. They’ll know by about 7 c.s.t.

    Indeed, Romney’s camp basically knows it’s over. Just like Mccain’s camp did at this stage 4 years ago. When you hear them dismissing Ohio as critical, and talking up Wisconsin and New Hampshire, that’s the sound of desperation.

  • Mr. F.

    “Also, Nate Silver is a partisan hack. He’s the left wing version of Dick Morris. His proclamations mean nothing. He got ONE ELECTION mostly right. Anyone can get one election right.”

    You must be referring to 2010, when Silver said the Republicans were going to take over the House in a wave election. Right?

    I’d actually discuss the evidence with you, dogcatcher… except that the majority of pollsters are coming to the same conclusion. It’s not like Silver’s an outlier.

  • RoyBatty Returns

    “Romney still leads nationally. So now it’s over when you have a deficit in polling? You people are delusional.”

    “…the election was over when the post-3rd debate polls showed Romney still in the lead.”

    Let’s welcome our newest contestants dogcatcher and David A to a little show I call I Don’t Know Jack Shit About Politics But Lemme Pull An Opinion Outta My Ass Anyway

    Smugly telling your co-workers about national polls might impress those in the break room, but around anyone who isn’t a political naif it really reveals how little you seem to understand about national elections.

    235 million voting-age Americans do not elect the president. 538 electors do. Come back when you understand the difference and can contribute something meaningful to the conversation.

  • RoyBatty Returns

    @otto – you hit the nail on the head, sir. The national polls “neck and neck” dog & pony show is just to keep selling ads right up to the moment they have no choice but to call it.

    Was the same thing in ’08 when they laughably kept up the pretense that McCain was still viable after calling Ohio for Obama at 9:23p EST (Penn, his only hope, had fallen at 7:48p EST).

  • RoyBatty Returns

    Electoral-vote.com has a good piece up today showing the 5 ways Obama will likely win and just how little of a realistic chance Romney has at this point. The moment they call Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina or Florida for Obama he has lost the election (whereas Obama can lose several combinations of those and still win)

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html#item-2

  • Alobar

    Electoral votes are people, my friends…

  • David A.

    “235 million voting-age Americans do not elect the president. 538 electors do. Come back when you understand the difference and can contribute something meaningful to the conversation.”

    I understand quite well that the left is desperately clinging to their last hope of “…but we could still win the electoral college.” It isn’t likely to happen, however.

    Polls have been consistently showing Romney with a double-digit lead among independents, which means Democratic turnout is going to need to be huge in order for Obama to pull it out. All signs point to Republicans at least matching the Democrats in terms of turnout, so unless a huge chunk of independents suddenly change their minds about who they’re voting for, Romney should win the popular vote by a wide margin…wide enough that any talk of Obama squeaking out an electoral vote win will look downright silly in retrospect.

    But, hey, speculation and prognostication can be put to bed, at this point. The votes will be counted in 8 short days…and then we can all start talking about the 2016 elections. Woo-hoo!

  • ghost of a ghost

    Progressive Democrats say….

    The Electoral College is an antiquated, racist, elitist, anti-democratic system and it must be abolished!

    But can it wait until 2013?

  • Raising_Kaned

    Honest question here to the people that seem very…politically-motivated on this site:

    When you’re on other popular POLITICAL websites (I can’t even really give any specific examples because I don’t really know that world, man…) — do you post, like, your thoughts on movies or sports or video games (or knitting…you get the idea) there?

    I mean — when I hit up my daily sports websites or blogs, for example, the last thing that would ever occur to me would be to get into a heated discussion of “Best Sequel Ever” or something — and even someone did start in on that, it seems unlikely that I’d even give the time of day to PhillyPhanatic#1 who was torn between XXX: State of the Union and Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift vying for the top slot on said list.

    I guess the bottom line here is that I care — at least as far as it goes — about what you guys think about movies because you really like them and (presumably) spend a fair deal of time either watching them, reading about them, or thinking about them. Even if I really cared about politics (I don’t), I sincerely doubt I would really get all that invested about some random trust fund dude’s thought on an election when he is someone who spends 16 of his waking hours going frame-by-frame through Peter Weir’s filmography trying to uncode all the hidden meanings.

    Boiled down to a kernel: why do most of you assholes seem to care sooooo much about other assholes’ opinions on politics when all of these enlongated arguments are hidden away in a niche blog between a post about an apartment-dwelling woman’s insatiable orgasms and the all-so-important thoughts of anonymously-named “Guido” Bazin on where Lincoln’s voice falls on the “realistic-Modinetastic” scale?

  • joe banks

    hey, Mitt’s gonna win those independents just like John Kerry in 2004! it’s in the bag

    http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/2004/11/independent_voters_for_kerry.html

    “Election day seems likely to be independents’ day–to Bush’s bitter regret.”

  • Raising_Kaned

    I mean — I basically believe we should burn all our money, get rid of capital conversion, and throw the entirety of society into a Lord of the Flies-style free-for-all, and let the chips fall where they may.

    I don’t know if that’s so left-wing it’s right-wing, or so right-wing it’s left-wing, but it’s definitely stupid and irrational. But, deep-down, I suspect most peoples’ politics are (which is why everyone gets so fucking emotional and flies off the handle trying to defend them).

  • aaronhal9000

    Anarchy is the only system in which personal freedom is fully expressed. The problem is that it can’t last forever because at some point we have to compromise in order to coexist.

    Any government is more like a mafia than some platonic ideal. Within our system, however, there is at least a barrier between the thuggish operatives and the common man.

    Neither candidate is a hero. They both owe so much to other powerful people and organizations that whatever government they form will be directly or indirectly influenced by them.

    We might as well make a reality TV series of the election cycle. It would be far more entertaining than the pretensions we manufacture to choose what is really no choice at all.

  • Kamal Sarik