Les Miz Will “Sweep” Monstrously?

Snuggle 4“, the Gold Derby correspondent who predicted 88% of last year’s Oscar winners (which was 8% ahead of predictions by Deadline‘s Pete Hammond, Fox News’ Tariq Khan and Awards Daily‘s Sasha Stone), is predicting a “monster sweep” for Tom Hooper‘s Les Miserables.

O’Neil describes this guy as a Hollywood hotshot “who’s seen the film even though he acts coy when I ask him.” So you don’t know for a fooking fact that he’s seen it, Tom? “No, I don’t know that he’s seen it,” O”Neil replies, “but he hints that he HAS — and that’s good enough for me to make a news story out of this.”

I don’t know, man. I don’t like the sound of this. O’Neil has never identified this character in any way, shape or form — he’s never burned him — so why isn’t Mr. Hotshot simply telling O’Neil in the privacy of their correspondence that he’s seen this Universal release? What’s with the little teasing games? This tells me at the very least that the guy is a candy-ass, which indicates he might have overall character issues. Pussitude is a cancer that spreads all over the place.

“This guy is a fooking genius,” O’Neil insists. “He nailed the Emmys too while competing against thousands of award fanatics at Gold Derby. He wouldn’t send me an email like this unless he’s sure of himself. I wrote back to ask if I could quote him. He said yes — that’s how confident he is of his call. In other words, he wants me to spread the word, and he wants to take early credit for calling this on October 6th.”

  • Jesse Crall

    The source is dicey but the Les Miz trailer was one of the most haunting things I’ve ever seen. If the film measures up, it’ll stand out as a musical and provoke some BIG emotions in voters. Feels like a throwback to those 80’s epics like Amadeus and The Last Emperor that won everything.

  • tyjagi

    I’m predicting a Best Picture win for Les Miz, but there’s no way it’s sweeping the Oscars, especially with the new deadline. The trailer is fantastic, and I’m sure it’ll be pretty successful during the Holidays. It’s something the Academy will eat up like hotcakes,and it’ll more than likely score more than 10 total nods, but there will be no Lord of the Rings-type swep here.

    I can’t see Hooper winning Director for a second straight feature. If anything, this will be a repeat of the 2002 Oscars where Chicago split Picture/Director. Only 2 lead musical actors have won Oscars before, and the only acting win I see is for Hathaway.

    These are the wins i’m predicting for Les Miz:
    Picture
    Supporting actress- Hathaway
    Production Design
    Costume
    Editing
    Best Song

    Jeff, I see on gold derby you have it winning for Picture, Director, Production design

  • Jeremy Wilson

    I have no idea if the source is legit, but I agree Les Miz is the wildcard in all this. There’s no perfect candidate (King’s Speech) and no early consensus pick (The Artist) this year. Les Miz is one of the greatest stories in literature and one of the greatest stage shows ever. This is really the first big musical adaptation Hollywood has undertaken of it and Tom Hooper is directing with a big-time cast. Plus, singing “live” instead of against a soundtrack is going to earn it big brownie points. Look at Chicago; it changed up the traditional formula with movie musicals and it got rewarded. And this is better material than Chicago.

    If it’s any good at all (and the material and cast would make that likely), it’s the favorite. I don’t know if it’s going to be a “monstrous sweep,” but it’s definitely conceivable it could win Picture, Director (I know, I know), Production Design is almost a lock, Costume, Supporting Actress and Song. That’s 6. Outside shots at Editing, Screenplay and Lead Actor could bump it up to maybe 9, but those last three are unlikely unless everyone wants to fall over themselves giving it awards and if Phoenix, Day-Lewis and Hawkes cease to exist come nominating time.

  • MarkVH

    I’ve been saying it since the beginning, if Les Miz delivers on the promise of that first trailer (and the source material), it’s a lock.

  • Carl Kolchak

    I I’ve seen this as the big oscar winner for a long time. I have to say that I’m surprised this show has been as enduring and popular as it has been because the music is kind of…..meh.

  • Carl Kolchak

    I I’ve seen this as the big oscar winner for a long time. I have to say that I’m surprised this show has been as enduring and popular as it has been because the music is kind of…..meh.

  • Joe Leydon

    I just hope that it’s such a monster hit, Warners finally releases a Blu-Ray of Claude Lelouch’s Les Miserables just to grab a ride on the gravy train.

  • Raising_Kaned

    I hear Snuggle4 is very interested in contacting one Guido Bazin — does the latter have a Plenty of Fish account he can be reached at (preferably accompanied by a video of him shirtless while reciting a critical overview of Eisenstein’s career arc)?

  • Eoin Daly

    I think Les Miserables will not just be the best of the year but one of the best films of all time that changes how we see musicals. I think it might sweep. Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Song and Sound Mixing seem like good calls. We all know Hooper would not have cast Crowe if he was not able so he seems like the winner of supporting actor, Hugh could win if DDL disappoints as Phoneix/Hawkes might seem to much for voters. It could win Costumes (If the sweep occurs) because Anna Karenina seems the lock there, film editing could be theres if they become the frontrunner, sound editing could be there’s if they become the frontrunner and Makeup is used in the musical to age all the actors so they could win that. I see 6 oscars locked and up to 12 (breaking the all time record of most wins) if it really is that loved. In terms of nominations 15 are my bet breaking the record with 16 maybe if Amanda is any good.

  • MarkJ

    Looks like another banal Tom Hooper TV movie – perfect for the Academy.

  • The Hoyk

    Joe, I asked Warner Archive that essential question about Lelouch’s MISERABLES reinvention, and they said they no longer have the rights to it, which strikes me as a little weird because I’m pretty sure the French branch of WB co-produced it. But I guess it’s reverted back to Les Films 13 or whatever Lelouch’s consortium is.

    I’ve been revisiting those great epic Lelouch films of the ’70’s, love them. I don’t know if anyone wants to take another stab at releasing his work on Blu-Ray in the States – those Image DVDs in the mid-naughts were okay, aside from being featureless – somehow I don’t see Kino or E1 stepping up, though I would love for them to. Maybe this time doing both cuts of AND NOW MY LOVE and including the English dub, or maybe releasing the TV miniseries version of LES UNS ET LES AUTRES alongside the U.S. recut BOLERO. For that matter, did ROMAN DE GARE ever get a proper retail release after it had its “Blockbuster Video Exclusive” window?

  • Eloi Wrath

    Love the macho posturing and use of bold on “fooking fact” and “candy-ass” in an article about the Oscar chances of Les Miserables.

  • Raising_Kaned

    @Eloi: It seems particularly funny given Wells’ staunch advocacy of Anna Karenina — aren’t they basically in the same genre, if not the same story (probably a slight exaggeration, but whatevs)?

  • raygo

    This prediction, in early October, is equal parts retarded and gay.

  • MechanicalShark

    I think because Hooper’s win for King’s Speech was not well regarded by a lot of people, if Les Miz wins, someone else wins director. Perhaps Ang Lee, or Paul Thomas Anderson?