Lotta Snubs on Thursday Morning

Four good things came out of Sunday night’s Golden Globes Awards. 12 Years A Slave winning for Best Motion Picture, Drama inserted a helpful nudge factor in the deliberations of Academy voters who might otherwise be looking to blow it off because, as several award-season pulsetakers have noted, they feel it’s a morally urgent, award-worthy effort but too much of a grueling sit. Leonardo DiCaprio‘s win for Best Actor, Comedy/Musical was a significant score for The Wolf of Wall Street and an indication that he may land a well-deserved Best Actor Oscar nomination. (This plus an expected Best Picture nom plus one for Best Adapted Screenplay and, if there’s a God of Fairness, a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Jonah Hill.) Ditto the Best Actress, Comedy/Musical win by American Hustle‘s Amy Adams…probably. And the Movie Godz completely agreed with Her‘s Spike Jonze winning for Best Screenplay.

The surprised but elated Slave gang after Sunday night’s win.

But a lot of contenders (faux and otherwise) are going to feel a certain amount of pain on Thursday morning when the Oscar nominations are announced. I’ll get into the whole category-by-category thing in an hour or so. I’m presuming that the Golden Globe snubbing of Lone Survivor, Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station, Rush and The Butler is probably some kind of indicator of ill winds. The GG snubbing of Inside Llewyn Davis is immaterial and irrelevant as far as history and the Godz are concerned. It took some people a couple of viewing to realize that Joel and Ethan Coen‘s film was and is a classic of sardonic downbeatism and wintry, less-is-more fatalistic whateverism. I’ve seen it five times and I can’t wait for the Bluray, so there. I wish I could listen to the vinyl soundtrack album on a nice, well-amplified system in somebody’s home or apartment.

I’ll be tapping out reactions to the nominations from HE’s Park City condo at the Park Regency. My Salt Lake City flight leaves tomorrow afternoon, but I won’t be in Park City until 7:30 or 8 pm.

From HE’s New Orleans correspondent Dave Dubos: “Using Oscar history as a barometer, if 12 Years is to win Best Picture, it has to win something else. But what?

“It won’t win any acting awards.” [ Wells: No Lupita?] Cuaron is going to win Best Director. Its only shot at another major award is John Ridley for Best Adapted Screenplay. So that makes Two Oscars. Argo won just three, Picture/Screenplay/Editing. I don’t see 12 Years getting editing. Gravity is going to sweep the Tech awards including editing and cinematography.

“So what else does 12 Years win? Lupita over Jen Lawrence…but do you see that happening? She hasn’t won any major awards to date.

“Maybe Hans Zimmer for his score? That’s possible and will point the way to 12 Years winning Best Pic if John Ridley wins.”

  • Michael Gebert

    Well, yeah, first off, forget the last three on your list entirely.

  • GigglesForGigli

    Have a safe flight and don’t forget your cowboy hat.

  • JR

    The Globes were a big boost for Amy Adams and JLaw and a nice one for Her, too.

    The Butler is toast as far as awards chances go, thank goodness…and I don’t see any chance in the BP nom list for Rush or Fruitvale, and I am skeptical about Banks, too. More last minute hope for Her, Philomena, and even Lone Survivor to make that cut for BP.

    And August Osage County could be a big bust in the Oscars – I will be shocked if Julia Roberts is nominated (not Streep, though – she should make the race and maybe win), and I also would be shocked if it made the BP list, although none of these blogs seem to be pushing it much anyway.

    Also putting it out there, out on a prediction limb: no way Jennifer Garner gets a nom…but Leto should win the Oscar handily. MM? Not so much…

    • roland1824

      I fear J Law inevitably pulls votes from Amy Adams and Amy loses out. She is the secret ingredient that pulls together both American Hustle and Her and deserves some recognition this year.

      • JR

        I hope Adams is in the lead category and JLaw is in supporting. Adams biggest competition: Streep and Blanchett. JLaw’s competition is the gal from 12 Years, and then it trails off.

        But if JLaw and Adams end up in the same category (it would be supporting), I agree with you, Adams will lose ground to JLaw, and that is unfortunate.

        Adams is long overdue for an Oscar. So is Leo D, but this is not going to be his year.

        • Michael Gebert

          Adams deserves it but she’s only been a name at all for half a dozen years… hardly long overdue.

        • Ray Quick

          Adams is the single worst actress in the history of cinema and the biggest fucking since Honeybaked. She is awful.

          • JR

            Worse than Pia Zadora? Wow…

  • Awardsdaily

    DiCaprio and Adams’ came after ballots were turned in. So who knows. The early date change has almost completely removed the way contenders could rally at the last minute. On the other hand, both got BAFTA nods so that could bode well for their chances.

    • Mechanical Shark

      it’s not that the Globes wins help DiCaprio and Adams get nominated, obviously, that’s impossible. It’s that the wins show possible goodwill for both performances.

      • clayclifton

        Good will from a bunch of foreign journalists, not Academy members.

  • Mark

    I don’t get the Jonah Hill love. He didn’t stick out whatsoever, imo, other than his fake teeth. If there was a God of Fairness, then Tye Sheridan should sneak into that category.

    Leo’s worthy of taking Chiwetel’s spot, who I understand not wanting to play Solomon passively, but there was a lot of “Acting”.

  • brenkilco

    How did the GGs boost anybody? Wasnt the Oscar voting deadline last week?

    • Aaron Paul’s Tuxedo

      Wells uses cause-and-effect as a metaphor for hindsight.

  • Aaron Paul’s Tuxedo

    “The GG snubbing of Inside Llewyn Davis is immaterial and irrelevant as far as history and the Godz are concerned.”

    These are some fickle Godz you worship.

    I guess for the films that aren’t quite that good, this stuff is supposed to be super-important.

  • roland1824

    Loved the movie but is it an unpopular opinion to not find the Llewyn Davis soundtrack itself all that great? Especially for a music centric film. The ersatz period tunes work fine in the film but putting on that CD in the house, away from the images, the songs just do not connect on their own, for me at least.

  • Steven Gaydos

    My Movie Godz think your Movie Godz are on quualudes.

  • Bernie

    Out of all the GG snubs BANKS has the best shot at a BP nod. It’s right in the Academy wheelhouse. Emotionally, thematically, historically. It has everything going for it.

  • Eric

    Picture. Actor. Editing. POSSIBLY Supporting Actress, Director, and Costumes?

    I think being a contender in Actor/Director/Screenplay/Editing gives it a chance still, no matter the case.

    After all, it just won Best Picture, and nothing else at the Globes on Sunday.

    • Diane_Chambers

      Babel did it in 2007, and then went on to take one Oscar, Best Score.

      • Eric

        Thanks Diane. Also, that year, the movie that won only Best Director at the Globes went on to take Best Picture.

        That was Martin Scorsese for The Departed.

  • Pete Miesel

    There’s a kind of electoral college feel to this figuring the path to BP. Gravity can’t win without script, Hustle can’t win without editing, 12 Years can’t win without script and an acting win?

    Who has the path?

    • Eric

      New territory!

  • Michael Gebert

    The thing about asking why something is snubbed by the Golden Globes is– it’s probably because they didn’t play ball. Not in any way because we’re talking about a serious group who thought about the movies carefully.

    Anyway, American Hustle, McConnaughy (everyone will say Dern but the Academy rarely votes sentiment, no matter that it has a mistaken reputation for doing so… ask Lauren Bacall), Thompson in a surprise win over Adams, Leto, Lawrence, McQueen in 12 Years’ only win and most importantly, Frozen.